Which of these 2028 match-ups would be most favorable to Democrats?

[Tekken_Guy]

Which of these 2028 match-ups would be most favorable to Democrats?

[Sir Mohamed]

Honest opinion: Term limited Trump. The GOP would be tied to all his failures an chaos, but have none of his incumbency advantage.

Both with a term-limited Biden or (likely) Harris running for reelection, 2028 would be an attempt to win a 3rd consecutive term, which is always very difficult.

GOP prez running for reelection would usually be the hardest unless the incumbent presides over a 2008-style recession and/or major scandal.

2028 is actually an election which Dems may want to lose due to redistricting following the 2030 census. So there's a case for hoping 2030 won't a midterm under a Dem admin.

[Del Tachi]

Incumbents typically perform best, but Harris being the most likely incumbent Democrat to be nominated in 2028 weakens this assumption.

[progressive85]

With Cheeto gone for good, 2028 will be a prime opportunity for a young Democrat to recharge the left.  Whoever gets elected in 2022 Senate is up in 2028 - important to keep that in mind since the success of the presidency has now a great deal to do with the Senate coattails.

[Ferguson97]

Incumbent Democrat.

Zero chance Democrats win in 2028 if Biden wins re-election in 2024. And running against an incumbent Republican in 2028 probably wouldn't end well either.

Harris is presumably the incumbent Democrat in this scenario, and that means she won in 2024 so her vulnerabilities were probably greatly exaggerated.

A Republican primary following a term-limited Trump would look like a clown car. Everyone would be trying to replicate the magic that he had. Democrats would similarly be in a very obnoxious primary and would have a massive progressive/moderate schism after Biden loses to Trump. It would be pretty ugly.

Incumbent Democrat/Harris gives the Democrats the obvious incumbency advantage, plus I really don't think voters are going to produce THREE one-term presidents in a row unless she screws up royally.

Incumbents typically perform best, but Harris being the most likely incumbent Democrat to be nominated in 2028 weakens this assumption.

If Harris is the incumbent heading into the 2028 election, doesn't her victory in 2024 mean that she's probably not as weak a candidate as previously thought?