Why Rightwards Hispanic shift shouldn't discourage Ds too much in Texas

[S019]

I strongly agree with basically all of this, and did something similar a bit back, but I shifted the RGV back to 2016 numbers and looked at the impact of the shift by county, and it turned out that it only moved the statewide margin by 1 point, and of course the urban counties shifted the margin the most, not many people live in Zapata and Starr. It's not a coincidence imo that those most heavily populated RGV counties remained the most Democratic ones in 2020 and saw the smallest shifts.

[S019]

The issue for democrats isn’t just RGV but Harris county as well as Hispanic Trends I believe allowed Trump to outperform Cruz 2018 there

If Austin+Dallas continue to swing the way that they have been, Houston stagnating will simply delay, not prevent a Democratic Texas. Houston would need to actually swing to the right to set off the horrendous trends for Republicans in the Metroplex and Austin.