1984: Joe Biden is the Democratic nominee, Gary Hart is the VP

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

Biden would probably forfeit Minnesota but do better than Mondale elsewhere.

[Agonized-Statism]

President Ronald Reagan (R-CA) / Vice President George Bush (R-TX) ✓
Senator Joe Biden (D-DE) / Senator Gary Hart (D-CO)

It's difficult to see an opening for Biden in the primaries to begin with- Mondale had New Dealer labor, Hart had the younger, tech-friendly, business-friendly Atari Democrats- but I'm guessing Biden runs like a better version of Hart with just enough Rust Belt/developing Farm Crisis appeal to pull off an upset. He and Hart win over Kennedyland, but given the quality of Biden's campaigning, I don't think he could sell himself as a populist insurgent and really make inroads in the Midwest. It was too early for the Republican Lite strategy, so that door is closed too. All a Biden (or Hart) primary upset really achieves is making the Democrats' disarray look worse, because neither had a substantiative alternative to Mondale's New Dealerism or Reagan's neoliberalism, just platitudes about newness and youth ("where's the beef?").

[UWS]

President Ronald Reagan (R-CA) / Vice President George Bush (R-TX) ✓
Senator Joe Biden (D-DE) / Senator Gary Hart (D-CO)

It's difficult to see an opening for Biden in the primaries to begin with- Mondale had New Dealer labor, Hart had the younger, tech-friendly, business-friendly Atari Democrats- but I'm guessing Biden runs like a better version of Hart with just enough Rust Belt/developing Farm Crisis appeal to pull off an upset. He and Hart win over Kennedyland, but given the quality of Biden's campaigning, I don't think he could sell himself as a populist insurgent and really make inroads in the Midwest. It was too early for the Republican Lite strategy, so that door is closed too. All a Biden (or Hart) primary upset really achieves is making the Democrats' disarray look worse, because neither had a substantiative alternative to Mondale's New Dealerism or Reagan's neoliberalism, just platitudes about newness and youth ("where's the beef?").

Reagan would also still have been able to use the "youth and inexperience" line against Biden, which definitely handed him the election, as Biden had less experience than even Mondale.

[MATTROSE94]

President Ronald Reagan (R-CA) / Vice President George Bush (R-TX) ✓
Senator Joe Biden (D-DE) / Senator Gary Hart (D-CO)

It's difficult to see an opening for Biden in the primaries to begin with- Mondale had New Dealer labor, Hart had the younger, tech-friendly, business-friendly Atari Democrats- but I'm guessing Biden runs like a better version of Hart with just enough Rust Belt/developing Farm Crisis appeal to pull off an upset. He and Hart win over Kennedyland, but given the quality of Biden's campaigning, I don't think he could sell himself as a populist insurgent and really make inroads in the Midwest. It was too early for the Republican Lite strategy, so that door is closed too. All a Biden (or Hart) primary upset really achieves is making the Democrats' disarray look worse, because neither had a substantiative alternative to Mondale's New Dealerism or Reagan's neoliberalism, just platitudes about newness and youth ("where's the beef?").

Seems about right with the exception of West Virginia. Ronald Reagan might have done better in the popular vote as well due to the fact that a Republican lite strategy for the Democrats wouldn’t have worked that well until the early 1990s.

[Agonized-Statism]

Seems about right with the exception of West Virginia.

If the labor candidate couldn't win it, how could a young moderate Biden? Actually, come to think of it, I'm starting to question myself on Rhode Island.

[MATTROSE94]

Seems about right with the exception of West Virginia.

If the labor candidate couldn't win it, how could a young moderate Biden? Actually, come to think of it, I'm starting to question myself on Rhode Island.

West Virginia is in close proximity to Delaware, so maybe Joe Biden would have had a semi home state boost there. On the same logic, Pennsylvania and Maryland would have flipped as well as they were very weak wins for Ronald Reagan even against Walter Mondale.