100 Senate districts...with a twist

[Schiff for Senate]

I disagree with the bolded section (though it obviously depends on what is defined as 'a lot') and have evidence. I find that out of (by my count) 30 Biden counties, 2 (Clayton and DeKalb) crossed the 80% mark, and out of what should come to 129 Trump counties, some 24 gave him north of 80% (including Brantley and Glascock, which gave him 90% of the vote each). So GA is actually quite polarized. I think what does make the results as they are is that some suburbs of Atlanta, included in the blue district, are still quite moderate, and the entire GA02, where blacks outnumber whites, is in the red district, thus making it more moderate.

Obviously Georgia is (racially) polarized, but the real polarization isn't necessarily at its greatest on a county-by-county basis.

35% of Trump's votes in GA came from counties Biden won. 29% of Biden's votes in GA came from counties Trump won.

I'm not sure what the national share is by comparison, but the fact that Trump got more than 1/3 of his votes from counties that only comprise 53% of the population in one of the most racially polarized states still makes the geographic argument hold. After all, many people forget that rural Georgia is still >20% black.

Mostly unrelated, but interesting fact about GA: In 2020, exit polls showed Hispanic men only voted for Biden by 3 points!

Anyway, to what you said, the reason Trump got such a high percentage is because the blue counties of metro Atlanta are very populous and still produce the most raw votes for Trump. And many of them are only light blue, going for Biden by under 20 points and therefore not being that strongly Democratic to begin with. Biden's 29% can be explained because there were a lot of counties in the southwest with sizable black populations that narrowly voted for Trump but gave Biden a decent number of votes (though to be fair, they are quite rural). Further east, a similar story is in the suburbs and exurbs of Augusta.

A lot of those SW and eastern non-urban counties have next to nobody in them, for what it's worth. Nevertheless, there are fewer Ds (both %-wise and nominally) in Trump-won areas than there are Rs in Biden-won areas because the aggregate of GOP turf in Georgia is more R than the aggregate of DEM turf is D (though because there are fewer places of population that are heavily-R, you invariably have to dip into areas that aren't heavily-GOP to make a 2-district map).

BTW and in relation to my previous post, I did the math: 43% of Trump's national vote came from counties Biden won; 30% of Biden's came from Trump-won counties. That basically means Trump America is just as R as Trump Georgia (at the county level), but obviously Biden America is more D than Biden Georgia.

At any rate, I think we've made this enough about Georgia - since this is a national thread, I'm gonna pipe down now!

Let's broaden this a bit. How does Georgia compare to other states in the Deep South here?

I would think GA has more of an urban/rural divide, since its major city and metro area is much bigger than AL's or MS's (if MS even has one true major city; I'm guessing Jackson half-counts), and rural areas have less blacks and are therefore more Republican: it has way more counties than AL and MS but about as many blue rural counties as AL and way less than MS, and the blue rural counties in GA still don't have the overwhelming number of blacks AL and MS have, capping all Democrats probably below 70% - whereas in MS and AL you find rural, very black counties that cross the 80% mark. This is also shown in CD's - GA02, GA's black rural-ish district, is only D+4, while MS02 is D+13 and AL07 is D+19 (though to be fair, AL07 is really an urban district at its core given that it includes the heart of Birmingham).

[Drew]

My WI map is similar to BRTD's except I ran a tentacle to Menominee.  No county splits, districts are within 3,500 of the target population.  Despite containing Menominee, the 1st is slightly less Native American than the 2nd.  Tammy Baldwin and Ron Johnson would be good fits for their respective districts.



District 1 in blue:

Total Population 2020

Pop   %
Total   2,943,329   100.0%
White   2,070,612   70.3%
Hispanic   306,317   10.4%
Black   383,153   13.0%
Asian   129,311   4.4%
Native   67,616   2.3%
Pacific   3,940   0.1%
Voting Age Pop 2020

Pop   %
Total   2,296,754   100.0%
White   1,707,210   74.3%
Hispanic   197,478   8.6%
Black   255,295   11.1%
Asian   91,029   4.0%
Native   47,326   2.1%
Pacific   2,749   0.1%
Composite 2016-2020

Votes   %
Democratic   836,962   60.0%
Republican   520,898   37.4%
Other   36,264   2.6%

District 2 in red:

Total Population 2020

Pop   %
Total   2,950,389   100.0%
White   2,563,406   86.9%
Hispanic   140,973   4.8%
Black   69,590   2.4%
Asian   87,034   2.9%
Native   76,956   2.6%
Pacific   3,530   0.1%
Voting Age Pop 2020

Pop   %
Total   2,315,546   100.0%
White   2,067,016   89.3%
Hispanic   86,591   3.7%
Black   41,018   1.8%
Asian   55,611   2.4%
Native   52,425   2.3%
Pacific   2,247   0.1%
Composite 2016-2020

Votes   %
Democratic   576,144   39.2%
Republican   854,665   58.2%
Other   38,896   2.6%

[GregTheGreat657]

I did Michigan

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d2709fac-85e1-4490-acc4-06d1a0781756

The Democrat district contains all but 3 counties, 2 Trump counties that were necessary for contiguity, as well as parts of Southern Macomb County. It is 62% White, 25% Black, 6% Hispanic, 6% Asian, and 2% Native American. Biden won it by 23%, Peters won it by 21.5%, Stabenow won it by 24%, Nessel won it by 22%, Whitmer won it by 28%, and Clinton won it by 20%. Its 2012-2016 PVI was D + 10.3, while its 2016-2020 PVI was D + 9.5.

The Republican district contains the rurals as well as the Grand Rapids and Bay City areas. It is 85% White, 5% Black, 4% Hispanic, 2% Asian, and 3% Native American. In 2020, both Trump and James won it by 17%. In 2018, James won it by 11%, Leonard won it by 16%, and Schuette won it by 8%. In 2016, Trump won it by 20%. Its 2012-2016 PVI was R + 8.9, while its 2016-2020 PVI was R + 11.1

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I did Michigan

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d2709fac-85e1-4490-acc4-06d1a0781756

The Democrat district contains all but 3 counties, 2 Trump counties that were necessary for contiguity, as well as parts of Southern Macomb County. It is 62% White, 25% Black, 6% Hispanic, 6% Asian, and 2% Native American. Biden won it by 23%, Peters won it by 21.5%, Stabenow won it by 24%, Nessel won it by 22%, Whitmer won it by 28%, and Clinton won it by 20%. Its 2012-2016 PVI was D + 10.3, while its 2016-2020 PVI was D + 9.5.

The Republican district contains the rurals as well as the Grand Rapids and Bay City areas. It is 85% White, 5% Black, 4% Hispanic, 2% Asian, and 3% Native American. In 2020, both Trump and James won it by 17%. In 2018, James won it by 11%, Leonard won it by 16%, and Schuette won it by 8%. In 2016, Trump won it by 20%. Its 2012-2016 PVI was R + 8.9, while its 2016-2020 PVI was R + 11.1

Not surprising such a big gap can be created in Michigan, given how many Dem votes are still packed into big urban counties (which is to say, Wayne).

[thebeloitmoderate]

https://districtr.org/plan/103000
I divided Illinois into 2 sections fitting for both the D and R senators to serve the state
The first section is Chicagoland plus the cities of Kankakee, Rockford, Freeport, Dekalb, and Belvidere, the huge role Chicagoland plays in Illinois politics makes it a Safe D district
The second section is Downstate plus the portion of Illinois by the Quad Cities/Dubuque and Jo Daviess County. It contains the remainder of Illinois including the Metro East, Little Egypt and rural portions of the state alongside the cities of Peoria and Springfield alongside the MS river portion of Illinois. It is a Safe R district  

[GregTheGreat657]

I did one with MN

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6357a056-a3e1-4318-99e6-b0f384f457aa

[thebeloitmoderate]

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::d9323805-02f3-41f9-ad11-60ff5d6222c1
This is a map of New York that I made the first and second senate districts are both run by D's but NY-01 is more conservative and NY-02 more progressive.
NY-01 contains most of upstate New York north of Albany and all of the more rust belty portions of the state including Buffalo, Syracuse, Rochester, etc. It contains Niagara falls the US portion of it, most of the NY-PA border. It is also whiter with some black and brown minority communities in the aforementioned cities as well as some towns in upstate NY as well. It is a swing district in which Biden won the cities and Trump the rural portions alongside the towns as well.
NY-02 contains all of the NY portion of the NYC metro area including NYC obliviously, Albany, Long Island, as well as the Orange to Westchester northern NYC suburbs. It is way more diverse, urban, with Greene county being the only non urban county in NY-02. Safe D district but it swung to Trump in 2020 thanks to Staten Island and Long Island being R.

[thebeloitmoderate]

Now I splited California into 2 parts
1. SoCal contains all of Los Angeles, San Diego metro areas as well as Bakersfield and Fresno and the coastal areas going from the Mexico border into Monterey County and rural areas to the east of it it is more diverse, more of a legacy district, and also safe Democratic but thanks to Trump's improvement among Hispanic and Asian voters it swung right in 2020.  
2.  Northern California consists of the Bay Area and Sacramento Area as well as Yosemite National Park and the coastline going from Santa Cruz to the Oregon Border. It also consists the cities of Modesto, Eureka, and Redding. It is safe D but more left than CA-01 thanks to  the bay area's liberal population alongside liberal whites by the coast and Napa Valley. It is similar to CA-01 but slightly whiter, Asian, etc. It also swung to Trump in 2020 but not as slight as CA-01 or other safe D senate districts in the country.
Later today i will split California but coastal and inland instead. (Apologize for not drawing the new map yesterday)

[Biden his time]

Florida

Image Link

Image Link


In the past, the North Florida-South Florida split was all anyone talked about when it came to dividing the state. Honestly though as time has gone on the Gulf Coast-Atlantic Coast split has become much more prescient, not only with uber-Republican suburban counties and retiree counties such as Lee, Polk, Pasco, Lake, Sumter, and Marion cropping up their voter rolls, but also with the Democratic shift in Greater Jacksonville and metro Orlando, and the Democratic trend stagnating in Tampa Bay.

[thebeloitmoderate]

I made a second California map
CA-01 Contains all of the coastal portions of the state going from San Diego to the Oregon border plus Sacramento Solano and Napa counties which are landlocked safe D. It contains a higher Asian population percentage as well as white liberals. The black population is mostly concentrated in Southwest Los Angeles and the East Bay. Would be represented by either a Black or Asian senator from the Bay Area and a Hispanic senator from Los Angeles
CA-02 Contains all of the landlocked counties in California minus Napa and Sacramento it goes from Imperial county all the way to the Oregon Border and contains some eastern suburbs of Los Angeles and the northernmost San Diego suburbs as well, if someone was taking I-5 northbound CA-01 goes from San Diego to LA county all the way to stop in Kern County then briefly resume in Sacramento county. It is a little more whiter than CA-01 but also has more Hispanic percent than CA-01. And extremely shockingly it is a swing district with the margins resembling PA/GA/AZ in 2020 only this time it shifted right thanks to Trump's efforts with Hispanic voters and it is less college educated than CA-01. A manchin/Sinema style white D senator and a Hispanic R senator would represent that district effectively
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::1d7a995b-1efd-4d1f-b3d9-3a973d86a82d

[Adam Griffin]

Mississippi:

No county splits. A 42.7-point difference between the 2.

CD-1 (Eastern MS)
68.5-30.2 Trump (1,474,632)

CD-2 (Western MS)
51.5-47.1 Biden (1,486,647)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/67219099-8a19-437e-9b3c-bad0c9d96ac7

[Adam Griffin]

South Carolina:

No county splits. A 29.6-point difference between the 2.

CD-1 (Northern SC)
62.5-35.9 Trump (2,562,860)

CD-2 (Southern SC)
50.8-47.8 Biden (2,555,565)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0f64f6f5-6fee-4ad4-878a-db5a8fddb1a3

[Adam Griffin]

Louisiana:

No county splits (using West Feliciana Parish's non-contiguous nature to create two "contiguous" districts). A 43.9-point difference between the 2.

CD-1
69.5-28.9 Trump (2,332,817)

CD-2
50.8-47.5 Biden (2,324,940)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/21196667-4789-4013-97b2-168fd30b767a

[Adam Griffin]

Tennessee:

No county splits. A 45.3-point difference between the 2.

CD-1
71.7-26.6 Trump (3,450,102)

CD-2
49.1-48.9 Biden (3,460,738)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/66753b4e-75e1-4b12-bbd4-81157cfced34

[thebeloitmoderate]

Today I will be splitting VA, AZ, DE, and CO

[Adam Griffin]

Alabama:

No county splits. A 46.2-point difference between the 2.

CD-1
73.9-24.9 Trump (2,507,231)

CD-2
50.6-47.8 Trump (2,517,048)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/4b073168-e14b-4396-9ea2-e0670003921b

[Adam Griffin]

Arkansas:

No county splits. A 36.0-point difference between the 2.

CD-1
71.1-26.2 Trump (1,506,173)

CD-2
53.0-44.1 Trump (1,505,351)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a2b39478-5632-40d3-bf2c-a636b01835f3

[Adam Griffin]

States done thus far according to the original guidelines of the thread:

[OBD]

This is child's play for Oregon. You can get all of the areas that vote left of the state into a single district, with a population deviation of just 58,000 people (2.76% total according to DRA).

The 1st District is Biden+40.7 and Clinton+34.7, and the 2nd District is Trump+8.1 and Trump+12.9, good for a whopping 48.8 point difference in 2020 and a 47.6 point difference in 2016 - one of the starkest so far in this project, I believe.

[Adam Griffin]

Colorado:

No county splits. A 42.7-point difference between the 2.

CD-1
52.4-44.7 Trump (2,889,962)

CD-2
66.2-31.2 Biden (2,883,752)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/e6366ef4-cefd-4602-b33e-80eb71432dc1

[Adam Griffin]

New Mexico:

No county splits. A 39.8-point difference between the 2.

CD-1
54.8-43.1 Trump (1,043,150)

CD-2
62.9-34.8 Biden (1,074,372)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/14abb7ae-ff1b-4da6-9a86-1e0834c893e4

[Adam Griffin]

Arizona:

Impossible to do without splitting Maricopa. A 15.9-point difference between the 2.

CD-1
52.9-45.7 Trump (3,572,126)

CD-2
53.5-44.8 Biden (3,579,376)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/2f410d49-8f1b-49f5-bc44-bcb93fb4cdf0

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

New Mexico:

No county splits. A 39.8-point difference between the 2.

CD-1
54.8-43.1 Trump (1,043,150)

CD-2
62.9-34.8 Biden (1,074,372)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/14abb7ae-ff1b-4da6-9a86-1e0834c893e4

A bit impressive how compact this is.

[Kuumo]

Utah:

No county splits.

CD-1:
--Population: 1,625,062
--2020 President: Biden (D) 48.2%, Trump (R) 46.5%
--2020 Governor: Cox (R) 54.1%, Weinholtz (D) 39.8%
--2016 President: Clinton (D) 37.0%, Trump (R) 36.2%, McMullin (I) and others 26.8%

CD-2:
--Population: 1,646,554
--2020 President: Trump (R) 68.7%, Biden (D) 25.8%
--2020 Governor: Cox (R) 70.5%, Weinholtz (D) 19.9%
--2016 President: Trump (R) 55.7%, McMullin (I) and others 27.2%, Clinton (D) 17.1%

Difference in 2020-PRES margins: 44.6 points

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::d52694a5-6968-4e06-8f60-d194f0caae3d





Idaho:

No county splits.

CD-1:
--Population: 919,150
--2020 President: Trump (R) 55.9%, Biden (D) 41.0%
--2018 Governor: Little (R) 52.6%, Jordan (D) 45.6%
--2016 President: Trump (R) 52.9%, Clinton (D) 33.9%, McMullin (I) and others 13.1%

CD-2:
--Population: 919,956
--2020 President: Trump (R) 72.1%, Biden (D) 25.0%
--2018 Governor: Little (R) 67.7%, Jordan (D) 29.9%
--2016 President: Trump (R) 65.4%, Clinton (D) 21.2%, McMullin (I) and others 13.4%

Difference in 2020-PRES margins: 32.2 points

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::734f98be-03b6-4e0d-a8ba-34245bee581b





Montana:

No county splits.

CD-1:
--Population: 546,553
--2020 President: Trump (R) 49.3%, Biden (D) 48.0%
--2020 Governor: Cooney (D) 49.1%, Gianforte (R) 47.1%
--2016 President: Trump (R) 48.8%, Clinton (D) 42.8%

CD-2:
--Population: 537,672
--2020 President: Trump (R) 65.3%, Biden (D) 32.3%
--2020 Governor: Gianforte (R) 62.5%, Cooney (D) 33.3%
--2016 President: Trump (R) 64.7%, Clinton (D) 28.5%

Difference in 2020-PRES margins: 31.7 points

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::deba25d3-f402-4a69-aff1-3d7cb339cec7





Nevada:

Only Clark County, Las Vegas, and North Las Vegas split.

CD-1:
--Population: 1,552,196
--2020 President: Biden (D) 57.3%, Trump (R) 40.6%
--2018 Governor: Sisolak (D) 57.8%, Laxalt (R) 37.0%
--2016 President: Clinton (D) 56.5%, Trump (R) 37.7%

CD-2:
--Population: 1,552,418
--2020 President: Trump (R) 53.1%, Biden (D) 44.5%
--2018 Governor: Laxalt (R) 51.4%, Sisolak (D) 43.2%
--2016 President: Trump (R) 51.7%, Clinton (D) 41.1%

Difference in 2020-PRES margins: 25.3 points

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::21a4470b-db1d-4320-81be-6066084f76f6





All four maps were created to maximize the difference in the 2020 Presidential election margins.

[Adam Griffin]

Wyoming:

No county splits. A 27.2-point difference between the 2.

CD-1
76.9-19.9 Trump (289,012)

CD-2
63.0-33.2 Trump (287,839)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/35d209e2-5a25-433a-8ca8-6799179d26c4