How do Republicans win any statewide race now in WA state or OR going forward?

[sg0508]

They've certainly had their chances, but keep failing. At the presidential level, both states are gone for the near future, but the GOP has had some tough losses in WA for governor (candidates started too far right and then tried to moderate and failed each).

In both states, very liberal policies towards drugs and socialistic-type rule keeps taking shape and from people I know there, more and more hippie-type people and others keep moving on in.

What has to happen for the Republicans to win any halfway significant race there statewide? Yes, once in a while, they win something down ballot, but it seems to be getting tougher and tougher each cycle.

[Roll Roons]

-Socially liberal R in the Charlie Baker mold
-Democrat runs a poor campaign
-Good national environment

It's probably slightly more likely to happen in Oregon than Washington because the former is slightly less blue and elects governors in midterms rather than presidential years.

[OSR stands with Israel]

-Socially liberal R in the Charlie Baker mold
-Democrat runs a poor campaign
-Good national environment

It's probably slightly more likely to happen in Oregon than Washington because the former is slightly less blue and elects governors in midterms rather than presidential years.

Someone like Hogan is probably a better fit than Baker as if republicans nominate someone like Baker you probably get a right wing third party challenger get a good deal of the vote and hand the election to the Dems .


Knute while moderate still ran against sanctuary cities

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

What about Bud Pierce? I'd think the guy who almost won in a Presidential Election year could win a favorable midterm without being Charlie Baker.

[Skill and Chance]

-Socially liberal R in the Charlie Baker mold
-Democrat runs a poor campaign
-Good national environment

It's probably slightly more likely to happen in Oregon than Washington because the former is slightly less blue and elects governors in midterms rather than presidential years.

Someone like Hogan is probably a better fit than Baker as if republicans nominate someone like Baker you probably get a right wing third party challenger get a good deal of the vote and hand the election to the Dems .


Knute while moderate still ran against sanctuary cities

Washington probably requires a full-blown Hogan/Baker style campaign as it's not as polarized and an outright majority of the votes are close-in to Seattle. 

Oregon is polarized enough and Portland is radical enough vs. the rest of the state that the Youngkin strategy could work there in a great R year.  There's enough of a base to get a pretty generic R over the line on differential turnout in a good midterm as long as the R nominee isn't going to Trump rallies. 

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

-Socially liberal R in the Charlie Baker mold
-Democrat runs a poor campaign
-Good national environment

It's probably slightly more likely to happen in Oregon than Washington because the former is slightly less blue and elects governors in midterms rather than presidential years.

Someone like Hogan is probably a better fit than Baker as if republicans nominate someone like Baker you probably get a right wing third party challenger get a good deal of the vote and hand the election to the Dems .


Knute while moderate still ran against sanctuary cities

Washington probably requires a full-blown Hogan/Baker style campaign as it's not as polarized and an outright majority of the votes are close-in to Seattle. 

Oregon is polarized enough and Portland is radical enough vs. the rest of the state that the Youngkin strategy could work there in a great R year.  There's enough of a base to get a pretty generic R over the line on differential turnout in a good midterm as long as the R nominee isn't going to Trump rallies. 

This isn't to say that a Hogan/Baker style campaign wouldn't also work in Oregon. 

[OSR stands with Israel]

-Socially liberal R in the Charlie Baker mold
-Democrat runs a poor campaign
-Good national environment

It's probably slightly more likely to happen in Oregon than Washington because the former is slightly less blue and elects governors in midterms rather than presidential years.

Someone like Hogan is probably a better fit than Baker as if republicans nominate someone like Baker you probably get a right wing third party challenger get a good deal of the vote and hand the election to the Dems .


Knute while moderate still ran against sanctuary cities

Washington probably requires a full-blown Hogan/Baker style campaign as it's not as polarized and an outright majority of the votes are close-in to Seattle. 

Oregon is polarized enough and Portland is radical enough vs. the rest of the state that the Youngkin strategy could work there in a great R year.  There's enough of a base to get a pretty generic R over the line on differential turnout in a good midterm as long as the R nominee isn't going to Trump rallies. 

This isn't to say that a Hogan/Baker style campaign wouldn't also work in Oregon. 

Baker style campaign wouldnt really work given the nature of the GOP base in OR vs MA. The way a Republican wins in Oregon is they have to basically set the narrative of the campaign and set the terms of the debate . The way to do that is by working hard to get some major ballot measures on the November ballot and basically tie the gubernatorial race to that ballot.


So in Oregon some ballot measures that can be done:


- A Ballot Measure that gets rid of many of the Land Use Regulations

- A Ballot Measure that reimplements standardized testing in High Schools

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

While I'm not one of the Republicans who advocates for Youngkin-style campaigns everywhere (in most tossup/lean R states any Republican would do fine), Oregon would be the perfect state for a Youngkin-like candidate.

[Skill and Chance]

-Socially liberal R in the Charlie Baker mold
-Democrat runs a poor campaign
-Good national environment

It's probably slightly more likely to happen in Oregon than Washington because the former is slightly less blue and elects governors in midterms rather than presidential years.

Someone like Hogan is probably a better fit than Baker as if republicans nominate someone like Baker you probably get a right wing third party challenger get a good deal of the vote and hand the election to the Dems .


Knute while moderate still ran against sanctuary cities

Washington probably requires a full-blown Hogan/Baker style campaign as it's not as polarized and an outright majority of the votes are close-in to Seattle. 

Oregon is polarized enough and Portland is radical enough vs. the rest of the state that the Youngkin strategy could work there in a great R year.  There's enough of a base to get a pretty generic R over the line on differential turnout in a good midterm as long as the R nominee isn't going to Trump rallies. 

This isn't to say that a Hogan/Baker style campaign wouldn't also work in Oregon. 

Baker style campaign wouldnt really work given the nature of the GOP base in OR vs MA. The way a Republican wins in Oregon is they have to basically set the narrative of the campaign and set the terms of the debate . The way to do that is by working hard to get some major ballot measures on the November ballot and basically tie the gubernatorial race to that ballot.


So in Oregon some ballot measures that can be done:


- A Ballot Measure that gets rid of many of the Land Use Regulations

- A Ballot Measure that reimplements standardized testing in High Schools

Yes, Oregon Republicans still need a nominee who is conservative enough to drive turnout in OR-02.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

-Socially liberal R in the Charlie Baker mold
-Democrat runs a poor campaign
-Good national environment

It's probably slightly more likely to happen in Oregon than Washington because the former is slightly less blue and elects governors in midterms rather than presidential years.

Someone like Hogan is probably a better fit than Baker as if republicans nominate someone like Baker you probably get a right wing third party challenger get a good deal of the vote and hand the election to the Dems .


Knute while moderate still ran against sanctuary cities

Washington probably requires a full-blown Hogan/Baker style campaign as it's not as polarized and an outright majority of the votes are close-in to Seattle.  

Oregon is polarized enough and Portland is radical enough vs. the rest of the state that the Youngkin strategy could work there in a great R year.  There's enough of a base to get a pretty generic R over the line on differential turnout in a good midterm as long as the R nominee isn't going to Trump rallies.  

This isn't to say that a Hogan/Baker style campaign wouldn't also work in Oregon.  

Baker style campaign wouldnt really work given the nature of the GOP base in OR vs MA.

I don't see why this wouldn't also be true for WA. The GOP is still quite strong in the Vancouver, Yakima + Tri-Cities, and Spokane districts.

[Rat]

You need a moderate Republican and an unpopular incumbent Democrat and/or bad environment for Democrats nationally. I feel like Knute Buehler could win against Kate Brown in 2022 with Trump no longer in office if he had chosen to run as a Republican.