Rate a Biden/Trump rematch

[Tekken_Guy]

Rate 2024 if it's a Biden/Trump rematch.

[Bootes Void]

I’m going with likely Biden here

[Redban]

If Biden’s approval stay as they are now - likely Trump

[Agonized-Statism]

Lean Biden, assuming a COVID endgame (70% to 85% vaccinated globally) and an improving economy. By that point, he'll have also done some warmongering somewhere to look tougher, and he'll have a Republican congress to point at for any other shortcomings.

[pbrower2a]

Lean D. Donald Trump remains the most toxic figure in nationwide politics since either segregationist pols of the 1960's or Senator Joseph R. McCarthy in the 1950's. Take your pick.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The 304/234 blue Wall is secure where did Trump campaign at AZ he doesn't need AZ but he needs WI, MI and PA and he barely won them in 2016 he didn't win them bye a landslide, as Rs think he did,switch the help of Gary Johnson

[Kleine Scheiße]

once the campaign got going lean d

one major reason for biden's negative approval ratings at this time is that he has not been campaigning (instead focusing on governing) meanwhile republicans have been

in the 2020 election biden's favorables rose as the campaign went on; there is no reason to expect this will not happen again once in the position to make this pivot

this does not however guarantee reelection for the president

[Del Tachi]

Tossup/Tilt R if held today, probably Tossup/Tilt D after a campaign.   

[Ferguson97]

Lean D in a fair election.

[Person Man]

Given how polarized things are, you could almost track the trends from 2016 to 2020, extrapolate them, and you would probably get very close to the 2024 results. Of course if Republicans generate their own backlash, Biden could do somewhat better and if things don't really improve from this point, Trump probably wins the popular vote by 1-2% and Biden will probably win only 200 EVs.

[EJ24]

Likely D.

Some of y'all still don't realize how awful Trump is for the Republican Party. Look how well they've done without him poking his face in their business (Youngkin in VA, this year's likely GOP victory in midterms). Trump is just about the only person gross enough to make your average suburban Republican vote for Joe Biden.

[progressive85]

Joe Biden is an extremely weak incumbent.  He's old, he doesn't look good (he looks very old), he has no real popularity in the Democratic base, he's presiding over inflation and that's an issue that's very visible for middle class people to see in their daily lives... COVID's not going anywhere, and he has nothing to really offer anyone.  He's done.

All of this is an enormous advantage to The Trump Party. 

I'm going to stop calling them the "Republicans" or the "GOP" (an even more ridiculous name) from now on because they have ceased to be anything but a loyalty contest to one man, as you can see by going into every single congressional primary they are having.

[S019]

Lean D for now

[ElectionsGuy]

Lean D in a fair election.

Democrats are already delegitimizing any different result than a Dem win in 2024. Amazing.

[Calthrina950]

Tossup/Tilt D. I think Biden would have a narrow advantage, but he is by no means safe and Trump could very well pull off a comeback.

Lean D in a fair election.

Democrats are already delegitimizing any different result than a Dem win in 2024. Amazing.

Republicans will probably de-legitimize a Biden reelection. This is a pattern we're going to see from both parties for now on.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump needs MI, PA and WI and if we win those in 22 the Election will be over and he's in AZ, AZ is wave insurance not critical to 278 and VA will go D next time with Kaine on ballot in 24

[Ferguson97]

Lean D in a fair election.

Democrats are already delegitimizing any different result than a Dem win in 2024. Amazing.

No? I'm talking about extremely specific clear cut scenarios like state legislatures overturning results, or a GOP-controlled Congress rejecting electors.

Nice deflection though.

[ElectionsGuy]

Lean D in a fair election.

Democrats are already delegitimizing any different result than a Dem win in 2024. Amazing.

No? I'm talking about extremely specific clear cut scenarios like state legislatures overturning results, or a GOP-controlled Congress rejecting electors.

Nice deflection though.

You said Lean D "in a fair election". That would imply Trump can't be the likelier winner unless something isn't fair. You made no mention of state legislatures or a GOP congress "overturning results", which is never going to happen anyway.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump has to get thru the Insurrectionists Commission he can still be charged and him saying the Election was stolen over and over is exacerbatiing tensions WITH DOJ not helping him

It's now 50/50 that the DOJ Prosecute him not only because his outburst but he is instigating Voter Suppression

[MarkD]

Likely D.
The map below is virtually identical to one I posted about three weeks ago in which I predicted a Buttigieg-Cruz match. The main difference between that map and this one is that here I didn't flip Indiana.

[kwabbit]

Tossup. The 2020 election was extremely close already and in the aggregate Biden is trailing Trump in the PV in rematch polling. Biden would be very likely to win the popular vote, but the real answer to this question is if you think Biden would improve on his 2020 performance in a rematch. Trump is more damaged because of January 6th, but Biden has suffered more, having evolved into an unpopular president. Trump's favorability has even exceeded Biden's, a result pretty unthinkable last November.

One has to recall the times before COVID to understand why. Trump's presided over the best economy in a generation for 80% of his presidency. Despite all of Trump's incompetence and corruption, his circus of an administration never negated the fact that the majority of Americans felt that their lives had improved during his presidency and they were doing well financially. Time heals all wounds, and a few years later the various obstructions of justice and abuses of power lose their gravity to the American people as they enter their third year
of the pandemic. They might remember the good economic times that weren't burdened with anxiety over the pandemic.

Biden's presidency has existed entirely during the pandemic. Most Americans may agree with each specific decision he's made, but when the pandemic still rages and they have economic pessimism, they will not view the leader of their country in a good light. If the pandemic is still going on in a few years, Biden will be viewed as a top-5 worst president in retrospect, even if he tried his best and made all the right decisions.

[TDAS04]

Lean Biden.

[Ferguson97]

Lean D in a fair election.

Democrats are already delegitimizing any different result than a Dem win in 2024. Amazing.

No? I'm talking about extremely specific clear cut scenarios like state legislatures overturning results, or a GOP-controlled Congress rejecting electors.

Nice deflection though.

You said Lean D "in a fair election". That would imply Trump can't be the likelier winner unless something isn't fair. You made no mention of state legislatures or a GOP congress "overturning results", which is never going to happen anyway.

Is this not how predictions work? I think the race is Lean D if there is a rematch.

[Liberalrocks]

Tilt Biden, but I have already learned not to bet against Trump. Fool me once blah blah....

[Blazinator]

2016 + NV + NH for Trump.