Is Trump going to pull a Grover Cleveland?

[The Invincible Brent Boggs]

Let's game this out. A few things have to happen for Trump to win in 2024 (and I figure if he lost or sat out 2024 it's a good bet he would not become president later).

First, he has to stay alive and in somewhat good health. Actuarial tables suggest about a 10-15% chance of death within the next 3 years for a man his age (given he has no obvious urgent health problems, let's downgrade this to 5-10%). There's a bit of leeway on the health side (see FDR 1944), but he would have to at least pretend to be relatively healthy to run and win in 2024. Let's call it another 5-10% chance that he would be unable to do this. Combining these two probabilities leaves Trump with about an 85% chance of being healthy enough to become president in 2024.

Second, he has to decide to run for president. That seems quite likely at this point, but obviously things could change. If Biden's approval improves or the mood in the Republican party moves away from Trump, he may decide to sit out to avoid an embarrassing loss. Or, he may get in legal trouble. My operating assumption is that legal threats to Trump are overhyped, but it's not impossible that he either ends up in jail or with some kind of criminal charge that substantially dents his reputation. Or, maybe he never wanted to run again and has just been stringing us along to get attention. Still, I think if he is healthy, his chances of running are high, let's say 80%. Between this and the health requirement above, Trump would then have about a 70% chance of running in 2024.

Third, he has to win the Republican primary. That looks almost assured at this point given that he runs. Although Ron DeSantis seems to be itching for a fight with Trump, in my opinion he is unlikely to have enough political strength to pull off a win. It is possible that another credible challenger emerges. However, we also must keep in mind that if things don't look good for Trump in the primary, he may decide not to run. Keeping all this in mind, I estimate that if Trump runs in the primary, he is a 90% favorite to win the nomination. Combined with the previous requirements, this gives Trump a 60-65% chance of becoming the Republican nominee in 2024.

Finally, he has to win a general election. If Biden runs again (probably similar likelihood to Trump, with similar conditions needing to be met), then Trump would be challenging an incumbent. History suggests the odds of success are low in this situation, but the fact that Trump also has been president might help here. Trump would probably have to hope that Biden's approvals stay in the low-mid 40s to beat him. That's not necessarily the most likely outcome; Reagan, Obama and Clinton had periods of low approval ratings in their first two years similar to what Biden is experiencing now, and all recovered to above 50% approval by the four-year mark and won re-election. By contrast, Trump was not able to win re-election from this sort of position. All of this suggests that Trump would be an underdog if Biden ran again. We'll call it 40% chance of victory if Biden runs, and I think that's being fairly generous. On the other hand, if Biden does not run again, then Trump could end up having an incumbency advantage of sorts. Furthermore, Kamala Harris, the next-most likely Democratic candidate, is not very popular right now (though she could recover). Trump would probably be the favorite against Harris. If someone besides Biden or Harris were the Democratic nominee, it's anyone's guess what might happen, but I'll still give Trump the edge because he is a former president. So, let's say Trump is a 60-65% favorite if Biden doesn't run. This would give Trump about a combined 50% chance of winning in a general election, for a ~30% chance overall of becoming president in 2024.

So, while I'm sure others would assign different probabilities to these various events, I think Trump would not be favored to pull off a Grover Cleveland-esque return to the presidency.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

Above poster sums it all up well.

I agree with him that Trump won't be the new Grover Cleveland.  I don't believe Trump will run again.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He needs to be Prosecuted either civil charges or criminal charges and any ordinary citizens would be charged by now


That's why some think that he's gonna run because he hasn't been held to account by a D DOJ if Trump doesn't get Prosecuted by the Midterms, D's will pay a price especially in the H

He is instigating Voter Suppression that's also why Biden polls are low not because of Covid or Border is because no Student Loan Discharge or Prosecuted of Trump and also no more stimulus checks, 70 percent believes the country is off Track

I am still optimistic but the longer he sits on those priorities the harder it's gonna get Biden back to 50  45 like he won the Election last time bye

[West_Midlander]

If voters are really willing to put a fascist back in office, this country is beyond saving.

Hahaha, a "fascist."

EDIT: I think Trump may run again but another R would probably have more success in the general election. He could win but I don't know if it would happen.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If voters are really willing to put a fascist back in office, this country is beyond saving.

Hahaha, a "fascist."

EDIT: I think Trump may run again but another R would probably have more success in the general election. He could win but I don't know if it would happen.

You do realize that the D's are the Majority not Rs and represent the biggest states than Rs and that Rs have been me the PVI once in 4 ELECTION right, its not assured in 3 percent unemployment the Rs are gonna do better than Ds


The Rs haven't won a compiled Map for Prez on Atlastia

[Mr. Smith]

Try.

But like Teddy Roosevelt, it won't go so well.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Try.

But like Teddy Roosevelt, it won't go so well.

Teddy did better than the actual Republican nominee though didn’t he.

[Vladimir Leninov]

What is with these threads Trump is likely to get Prosecuted by 2024 ANYWAYS and strong chance DeSantis might lose to Crist he is only up 3 on Crist

we talked about stopping drinking mercury, why did you start again

Trump will win in 2024

2020 Map + Nevada + Pa + Wisconsin (Az will be close either way)

for exactly 270-268 win over Biden

[Mister Mets]

It's possible but unlikely.

He would need to run. I'd put that at about 80 percent. He's an obese man in his seventies under investigation, so there may be factors preventing him from a run.
He would need to win the nomination. I'd put that at about 75 percent. He is losing some support, and the party is seeing other candidates doing well without his baggage.
He would need to win the General Election. Even if his odds of winning a General Election matchup were 80 percent, the chances he's the 47th President are still under fifty percent. I would personally guess his chances of winning a general election are 50/50 at best.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden and  Harris polls maybe 53 percent in Nov 22 and if that happens he will be above 50 on Election night Omnicron virus is waning

[RaphaelDLG]

Him defeating Biden in a rematch is the single most likely outcome, but I'll take the field and say "no" because of the nonzero chance that all sorts of other things happen like he doesn't run, dies, epically flames out, Biden recovers, etc.