When do Scott and Carver counties in MN flip?

[Tekken_Guy]

When do Scott and Carver Counties in Minnesota flip.

[WithLeast]

Honestly, I don't see either county flipping anytime soon

Scott County has been relatively stable in how it votes over the past 20 years. If there is a large 3rd party vote share like in 1992/1996 then it could possibly flip

Carver County has been even more stable in how it votes going back to the 1960's. Though an argument could be made that a large 3rd party vote could also make it flip as well

Even though both are part of the Minneapolis suburban area, they both have seemed to have avoided the democratic trend other suburban counties have seen (in the sense of losing Republican votes). Even in the 2020 election they both only voted 1% less Republican than in 2016, though there was a about a 7% increase in Democratic votes. To me though, that just makes is seem like Democrats could help pad there margins by getting people out to vote in both counties, but won't be able to flip them

[thebeloitmoderate]

Both counties are very white, and do not have a lot of college educated voters as well.

[Schiff for Senate]

In a bit. Not 2024, and 2028 would be a long shot in Scott though quite possible in Carver. If not 2028, then Carver should probably have flipped by 2032, with Scott also likely having flipped (though later / by a lot less), or latest by 2036. These counties aren't massively red or anything like posts above might imply, and they have swung decently leftward in the Trump era: Scott was Trump+6.7 (compared to Romney+14. and Carver was even closer, just Trump+4.9 (it was Romney+19.7)

Both counties are very white, and do not have a lot of college educated voters as well.

This hardly matters. They are still suburban, and even some rural counties that fit the requirements you gave in MN are blue strongholds (see those in far northeast MN, like Cook, which trended hard to the left in 2020 and gave Biden north of 65%, and Lake, I believe Clinton's whitest county in 2016).

Scott County has been relatively stable in how it votes over the past 20 years. If there is a large 3rd party vote share like in 1992/1996 then it could possibly flip

Carver County has been even more stable in how it votes going back to the 1960's.

Not really. Sure, the shift hasn't been as massive as in metro Atlanta or metro Houston, but it's happened, and these counties will pretty soon be within striking distance for the Democrats. And I don't see how Carver's been more stable than Scott...Scott swung 8.1 points leftward from 2012 to 2020; Carver swung 14.8.

[Xing]

Possibly in 2024, but I could see it taking another cycle. I think Anoka does flip in 2024, though.

[Sol]

Possibly in 2024, but I could see it taking another cycle. I think Anoka does flip in 2024, though.

Anoka not having flipped is kind of insane, tbh. I get that a large chunk of the county is exurbia/outer suburbia, which is basically the core of why it hasn't, but it's wild that its little "peninsula" hasn't ever had enough D votes to overcome that considering how far leftwards the Twin Cities have moved.

[Schiff for Senate]

Possibly in 2024, but I could see it taking another cycle. I think Anoka does flip in 2024, though.

Anoka not having flipped is kind of insane, tbh. I get that a large chunk of the county is exurbia/outer suburbia, which is basically the core of why it hasn't, but it's wild that its little "peninsula" hasn't ever had enough D votes to overcome that considering how far leftwards the Twin Cities have moved.

It's getting there...it was only Trump+2 in 2020.