Tonga mega-eruption. 5 deaths (3 Tonga, 2 Peru). Oil spill in Peru. Heard in Alaska
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  Tonga mega-eruption. 5 deaths (3 Tonga, 2 Peru). Oil spill in Peru. Heard in Alaska
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Author Topic: Tonga mega-eruption. 5 deaths (3 Tonga, 2 Peru). Oil spill in Peru. Heard in Alaska  (Read 1272 times)
Frodo
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« Reply #25 on: January 15, 2022, 02:00:51 PM »

I doubt this is going to be that 'year without a summer', though.  
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« Reply #26 on: January 15, 2022, 02:33:47 PM »
« Edited: January 15, 2022, 02:38:57 PM by Laki »

I doubt this is going to be that 'year without a summer', though.  

We will see. Tambora was obviously worse, so no not similar. But it might have an impact on the climate but it's too early to determine to what extent (and even than, it might be regional, or locally and what kind of effects might be unknown, and it would be only temporary as well).



England was reached, parts of Europe too. Directly antipodal to the volcano is Algeria where the pressure waves will converge, and they would have travelled around the world by than once.
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« Reply #27 on: January 15, 2022, 02:38:41 PM »

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Thunder98
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« Reply #28 on: January 15, 2022, 03:30:44 PM »

Earlier this morning in Santa Cruz Harbor. Avila Beach had flooding in the parking lots.







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« Reply #29 on: January 16, 2022, 12:22:35 AM »

2 people died in Peru because of the tsunami / surges.

Anak Krakatoa had 380.000 lightnings in a week. Hunga Tonga had 200.000 lightnings in a few hours (which is a record).
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #30 on: January 18, 2022, 01:58:23 AM »

Here you go Laki, seeing as you are an avid volcanologist.

Some ideas about why it was so big:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2022-01-18/tonga-volcano-tsunami-hunga-eruption-why-so-big/100761750



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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #31 on: January 18, 2022, 07:30:47 AM »

I think that fatalities are now being reported from Tonga.
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Conservatopia
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« Reply #32 on: January 18, 2022, 08:03:58 AM »

I doubt this is going to be that 'year without a summer', though. 

We will see. Tambora was obviously worse, so no not similar. But it might have an impact on the climate but it's too early to determine to what extent (and even than, it might be regional, or locally and what kind of effects might be unknown, and it would be only temporary as well).



England was reached, parts of Europe too. Directly antipodal to the volcano is Algeria where the pressure waves will converge, and they would have travelled around the world by than once.

That's interesting. What would be observed in Algeria when the pressure waves converge?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #33 on: January 18, 2022, 11:07:44 AM »

I doubt this is going to be that 'year without a summer', though.

Tambora was a VEI-7 (the last such eruption to date) whereas this appears to have been a VEI-5 and the categories go up logarithmically, so clearly not comparable in that sense. But a VEI-5 is still huge (this would be only the second this century) and there will be some effect.
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Frodo
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« Reply #34 on: January 18, 2022, 04:57:34 PM »
« Edited: January 18, 2022, 05:29:14 PM by Frodo »

I doubt this is going to be that 'year without a summer', though.

Tambora was a VEI-7 (the last such eruption to date) whereas this appears to have been a VEI-5 and the categories go up logarithmically, so clearly not comparable in that sense. But a VEI-5 is still huge (this would be only the second this century) and there will be some effect.

It may be a large eruption, but it is still smaller than even Mt. Pinatubo's 1991 eruption which was a VEI-6.   
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #35 on: January 18, 2022, 10:13:33 PM »

I think that fatalities are now being reported from Tonga.

Australia and NZ aid assit about to visit and will most likely give the Tongan's Omicron.
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« Reply #36 on: January 19, 2022, 02:05:01 AM »

I think that fatalities are now being reported from Tonga.
3 fatalities in Tonga, 2 in Peru
There is also an oil spill in Peru after 6000 oil barrels fell in the sea from a tanker

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-01-19/Peru-hit-by-oil-spill-due-to-Tonga-volcano-and-tsunami-16WD7N5Y4P6/index.html



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« Reply #37 on: January 19, 2022, 02:11:21 AM »

First photos arrive too, these are from Nomuka, probably the hardest hit island (not the main island)





https://www.sbs.com.au/news/these-are-the-first-pictures-emerging-out-of-tonga-following-the-volcanic-eruption-and-tsunami/df43f979-031c-4929-b425-e95072d51a6a

New Zealand is providing excellent work to give aid to the victims.







First amazing, beautiful, weird sunsets over northern australia as the cloud moved to this area mostly.
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« Reply #38 on: January 19, 2022, 02:14:10 AM »
« Edited: January 19, 2022, 03:18:48 AM by Laki »

I doubt this is going to be that 'year without a summer', though.

Tambora was a VEI-7 (the last such eruption to date) whereas this appears to have been a VEI-5 and the categories go up logarithmically, so clearly not comparable in that sense. But a VEI-5 is still huge (this would be only the second this century) and there will be some effect.

This seems to be VEI 5, the eruption itself only lasted 8 minutes (aside of previous smaller eruptions that happened before). The blast itself must have been huge, and is estimated to be around 15 to 50 Megaton TNT, which is larger than Pinatubo but the released material isn't enough for it to be larger than Pinatubo. Interaction with water is what made the blast (likely) a bit larger than Pinatubo and that all of it happened in such a short time span.

Estimates are that it is a VEI 5 and since the only VEI 5 so far in this century narrowly got to the threshold, that this is the largest volcanic eruption since 1991 (which had Pinatubo and also Mount Hudson - a VEI 5 eruption in Chile). The last VEI 5 eruption and only one after Hudson is Puyehue-Cordon Caulle in 2011 but that one narrowly got to VEI 5 and barely gets over the threshold. Grimsvotn in Iceland was till 2022 the second largest eruption of the century, also in 2011, with around 0.8 km³ of cu km of volcanic materials, which makes it a very high end VEI 4. (don't confuse with the april 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajokull, also a VEI 4 - but smaller - and is known for disturbing the European airline travel for a period.)



Scale comparison with Germany.

https://electroverse.net/hunga-tonga-eruption-small-vei-5-cooling-implications-explained/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-last-newsletter-total-posts-from-our-blog_1

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“The large and explosive lateral spread of the eruption suggests that it was probably the biggest one since the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo,” added Cronin. This is a contention gathering support in some circles. However, estimations still vary widely, ranging from a mid-VEI 4 to a powerful VEI 6. The full details of the eruption likely won’t be confirmed for weeks.


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Cronin and his research team camped on Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai in 2015 and noticed that the surrounding coral reef was lifting up, suggesting that magma was building underneath the volcano and could cause an eruption in the near future. The team found evidence of two previous mega-eruptions in AD 1100 and AD 200, suggesting they occur roughly once every 1000 years — making us due for a third.

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In conclusion, Hunga Tonga’s Jan 15 eruption was not the ‘big one’, it wasn’t that monster VEI 6/7 that cools the planet by 2C and instantly propels us –in combo with an ever-waning sun– into Earth’s next period of global cooling; however…

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Chances are, Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai isn’t quite done yet. The volcano has continued to erupt at a low level since the weekend, and further explosive events are likely over the coming days or weeks. The question is, what does it have left?

“The concern at the moment is how little information we have and that’s scary,” said Janine Krippner, a New Zealand-based volcanologist with the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. “When the vent is below water, nothing can tell us what will happen next.”

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Superheated magma and a huge volume of volcanic gases rose quickly and met the cool seawater, intensifying the explosion, said Raymond Cas, a professor of volcanology at Australia’s Monash University. The fear is, something similar could be setting up again — further eruptions will be intensified by the vast amount of sea water filling the caldera/chamber, building pressure.

It’s a wait and see, though. “Once the volcano is de-gassed, it will settle down,” said American meteorologist, Chris Vagasky. But we don’t know if we’re there yet. Referring again to evidence of Hunga Tonga’s historical mega-eruptions, which appear to occur once every 1000 years, previously in AD 1100 and AD 200, these ancient sequences have always contained multiple high-level explosions over a closely-spaced period; thus, similarly sized –or even larger– eruptions are expected over the coming days/weeks/months/years — your guess is as good as mine… all eyes on Tonga.

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Lane said the only similar volcanic tsunami event was Indonesia’s Krakatau eruption in 1883, which killed tens of thousands of people and obliterated the island.
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Lakigigar
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« Reply #39 on: January 19, 2022, 02:18:56 AM »
« Edited: January 19, 2022, 02:31:00 AM by Laki »

I doubt this is going to be that 'year without a summer', though.  

We will see. Tambora was obviously worse, so no not similar. But it might have an impact on the climate but it's too early to determine to what extent (and even than, it might be regional, or locally and what kind of effects might be unknown, and it would be only temporary as well).



England was reached, parts of Europe too. Directly antipodal to the volcano is Algeria where the pressure waves will converge, and they would have travelled around the world by than once.

That's interesting. What would be observed in Algeria when the pressure waves converge?

Probably the coalescing of all waves briefly intensified it, which probably would have made the sonic boom again possibly to be within hearing range, but there are no people in that location to observe that, as it is in the middle of Sahara. And it also amplifies the pressure waves that travel again.

As they passed, the second pressure wave already passed it and was still active, as the US and Europe all experienced a second wave (which went from Antarctica to Africa, from Africa to Europe, the North Pole area and than towards US/Alaska back to Tonga). The second wave was also observed here and in the US. In New England, the second pressure wave even appeared to be more intense than the first pressure wave.



The pressure waves are also still travelling over the world. So currently they have travelled 3 times over the world, making 6 pressure waves observeable, but getting smaller.



And this is why they travel the way they do. (and possibly also why it was heard in Alaska, because it travelled more directly to Alaska).

Theoretically one would think it would have been heard in Antarctica too (if there were people around and secondly if it wasn't the windiest continent of the world). And theoretically it could have been heard in southern Algeria but we can't verify this. It just could.



This is from a weather station in central Algeria which showed four peaks after the first converging
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Lakigigar
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« Reply #40 on: January 19, 2022, 03:12:00 AM »

I think that fatalities are now being reported from Tonga.

Australia and NZ aid assit about to visit and will most likely give the Tongan's Omicron.
Did you delete your meme post (can't find it anymore).
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #41 on: January 19, 2022, 03:42:14 PM »

Look like the Tongan's don't want help if Omicron comes with it:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-20/tonga-worried-covid-coming-international-help-volcano-eruption/100768028
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #42 on: January 21, 2022, 07:38:02 PM »
« Edited: January 21, 2022, 09:01:06 PM by Meclazine »

A 3D presentation of the subsurface volcano, Hunga Tonga.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-22/satellite-data-images-reveal-power-of-tonga-volcano-eruption/100773458

Meteoric water and sea water reactions in these volcanoes produce super heated steam which results in rapid and massive volume expansion. In this case, 100m below the surface, the water would have boiled and then expanded rapidly resulting in a massive explosion together with the energy from the magma of the volcano itself.



Hunga Tonga Volcano 2km high almost entirely under the ocean surface.(abc.net.au)

Typically, these oceanic crust volcano's on the Rim of Fire are less viscous than their continental counterparts (South America). The oceanic crust lavas are more iron and magnesium rich producing more fluid and flat volcanic flows like what you see in Hawaii.

But with sea water involved, this volcanic event, termed a phreatomagmatic eruption, had the right conditions and depth to let loose.
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Frodo
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« Reply #43 on: January 22, 2022, 06:43:20 PM »

Interesting -geophysicists with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization are saying this recent eruption produced the largest shock waves that they have ever seen:

A nuclear-test monitor calls Tonga volcano blast 'biggest thing that we've ever seen'

Quote
The explosive volcanic eruption in Tonga on Saturday appears to dwarf the largest nuclear detonations ever conducted, according to a global group that monitors for atomic testing.

The shock wave from the blast was so powerful that it was detected as far away as Antarctica, says Ronan Le Bras, a geophysicist with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization in Vienna, Austria, which oversees an international network of remote monitoring stations.

In total, 53 detectors around planet Earth heard the low-frequency boom from the explosion as it traveled through the atmosphere. It was the loudest event the network had detected in more than 20 years of operation, according to Le Bras.

"Every single station picked it up," he says. "It's the biggest thing that we've ever seen."

Quote
According to Le Bras, atmospheric measurements in Austria, roughly 10,000 miles from the eruption site, detected a shock wave that was 2 hectopascals in strength. By comparison, the largest nuclear weapon ever tested, the Soviet Union's Tsar Bomba, generated a shock wave of just 0.5-0.7 hectopascals in New Zealand, which sits at a comparable distance from Russia's nuclear test site in Novaya Zemlya.

Similar readings were picked up in other parts of Europe.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #44 on: January 23, 2022, 11:07:26 AM »

I doubt this is going to be that 'year without a summer', though.

Tambora was a VEI-7 (the last such eruption to date) whereas this appears to have been a VEI-5 and the categories go up logarithmically, so clearly not comparable in that sense. But a VEI-5 is still huge (this would be only the second this century) and there will be some effect.

It may be a large eruption, but it is still smaller than even Mt. Pinatubo's 1991 eruption which was a VEI-6.   

Which lowered global temperatures by about 0.5°C for two years.
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« Reply #45 on: January 23, 2022, 06:40:00 PM »
« Edited: January 23, 2022, 06:45:30 PM by Laki »

I doubt this is going to be that 'year without a summer', though.

Tambora was a VEI-7 (the last such eruption to date) whereas this appears to have been a VEI-5 and the categories go up logarithmically, so clearly not comparable in that sense. But a VEI-5 is still huge (this would be only the second this century) and there will be some effect.

It may be a large eruption, but it is still smaller than even Mt. Pinatubo's 1991 eruption which was a VEI-6.  

Which lowered global temperatures by about 0.5°C for two years.
Amount of SO² emitted was surprisingly small, the ash / magma might have been simply sulfur poor or even almost devoid of it, or it was mostly old rock that was erupted, or the water made it seem bigger than it was, or some other reason. You can't say based on that that the eruption was small. It is a weird eruption, more Krakatoa-style which in hindsight also didn't emit that much SO² as one would think for an eruption of that size or magnitude (probably both bangs were caused by similar or the exact same mechanism which has something to do with water leaking into magma conduits or the magma chamber itself due to previous eruptions destabilizing the system and/or floor), but krakatoa's size of the eruption was larger and it's phase before the eruption was more active for a longer time and already erupted quite a bit, while with Tonga the bang itself (8 minutes long eruption) might have been more powerful or explosive than the bang of Krakatoa, but that's hard to verify, but some suggest it could be. The weird thing about the eruption is that it seemed to be more like an underwater nuclear burst than a volcanic eruption. It was that weird and unique.

So naah, global temperatures won't drop for 0.5°C for two years. There might be regional but rather minor effects. Also it isn't something that makes global temperatures drop, it is more something that happens while the climate continues to warm, except that both happen at the same time. Human-made emissions that warm the earth happen while a blanket of SO² layer cools the earth, it isn't that the one offsets the other even if it might look like that according to statistics, it's that both happen next to each other.
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