Likelihood of Trump running compared to January 2021

[Tekken_Guy]

What is the likelihood of Donald Trump running compared to where it was in January 2021?

[SnowLabrador]

Unchanged. He was always going to run again; indeed, he is already running again.

[West_Midlander]

45% chance in January imo and 55% chance today.

[PSOL]

No change

[RaphaelDLG]

Better, due to both Biden's approval making him more vulnerable and also simply because more time has elapsed without Trump prosecution / health problems and so that is increasingly getting priced out of the odds

[TrumpBritt24]

Higher, alongside increased GOP momentum.

[Grassroots]

Less. His momentum is fading on the ground level, and more of the people who are tied to him are exploring candidacies of their own. I don't think he was ever going to run.

[American2020]

Less. His momentum is fading on the ground level, and more of the people who are tied to him are exploring candidacies of their own. I don't think he was ever going to run.

This.

Donald Trump's influence is fading

You'd be forgiven for thinking that the first anniversary of the January 6 attack on the US Capitol would be a day reserved for solemn reflection. Former President Donald Trump, however, seems to think it should be a day we all pay attention to him. He plans to mark it with one of his favorite indulgences: a press conference where he'll likely repeat lies about the election he lost and attack fellow Republicans who disagree with him.

"I will be having a news conference on January 6th at Mar-a-Lago to discuss all of these points, and more," said the former president in a statement so jammed with outlandish claims and trolling asides that it reads as if he dictated it in a single, excited breath.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/24/opinions/state-of-trump-influence-fading-dantonio/index.html

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Less. His momentum is fading on the ground level, and more of the people who are tied to him are exploring candidacies of their own. I don't think he was ever going to run.

Absolute nonsense.. he's at his best position ever in polling against Biden and he still is dominating republican primary polling.

He has individuals like Peter Meijer who voted to impeach bending the knee and saying there's no choice but to support him in 2024.. and you say his influence is fading.

The social media/forum sphere are living in a fantasy land thinking DeSantis will run.

[Kleine Scheiße]

hasn't changed much

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Feb 1st, 2021:
Trump favorability  -18
Biden's Approvals   +20


Jan 6th, 2022:
Trump favorability  -9
Biden's Approvals   -9

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/


Do the math. Of course, it has increased.

[MABA 2020]

Higher.

Trump will only run if he thinks he can win or at least successfully steal the election. Biden's declining popularity means a Trump victory has only become more likely.

[GregTheGreat657]

In January: 55%
Now: 80%

[SteveRogers]

His core supporters are already putting Trump 2024 banners in their front lawns. It’s happening.

[Tekken_Guy]

His core supporters are already putting Trump 2024 banners in their front lawns. It’s happening.

Well the decision for Trump to run is up to Trump himself, not his supporters.

[BlueSwan]

He was likely to run again in january 2021, but at that point in time there actually was a real chance that republicans would turn against him. This chance is gone, so now it is all but certain that he is running again.

[It’s so Joever]

Trump is losing his conspiracy base. Atlas doesn’t want to talk about it, but he is not as influential as he was a year ago.
I know many are going to say “that’s such a small minority” but it’s not. It’s a larger chunk of his supporters than anyone wants to admit. Now that he is losing ground with them…he may be f**ked.

[BlueSwan]

Trump is losing his conspiracy base. Atlas doesn’t want to talk about it, but he is not as influential as he was a year ago.
I know many are going to say “that’s such a small minority” but it’s not. It’s a larger chunk of his supporters than anyone wants to admit. Now that he is losing ground with them…he may be f**ked.

Most of them still worship the ground that he walks on. It is true that some of them are turning against him due to his support for the vaccines, but my impression is that it is a fairly small minority and they'll probably back him again once he stops talking about vaccines and gets back to his usual nonsense.

BTW, I totally agree with you that the "conspiracy base" is very large indeed. To me, it is the single biggest explanation for Trumps increase in votes from 2016 to 2020 and his current lead in H2H polls against Biden.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He's not gonna win he is an Insurrectionists he narrowly best Hillary in 2016 and didn't win in 202o

[Calthrina950]

It's astonishing that we're a year into the Biden Presidency and we're now talking seriously about the possibility of a rematch between him and Trump.

[Tekken_Guy]

It's astonishing that we're a year into the Biden Presidency and we're now talking seriously about the possibility of a rematch between him and Trump.

At this point we’re talking seriously about Trump running and Biden not.

[Calthrina950]

It's astonishing that we're a year into the Biden Presidency and we're now talking seriously about the possibility of a rematch between him and Trump.

At this point we’re talking seriously about Trump running and Biden not.

That's true, but I still think a Biden vs. Trump rematch is the most likely outcome.

[CookieDamage]

Less. A lot of other Republicans are gaining steam and Trump himself doesn't seem all that interested in possibly losing again. Of course what he says is a different thing, but being a loser is like the worst possible thing to be for him, so he wouldn't risk it again.

[2016]

The Chance Trump runs is obviously higher today then it was 12 Months ago BUT there is one big CAVEAT and his name is Merrick Garland.

If he does prosecute Trump for January 6th Trump is out of the 2024 Sweepstakes.

[SteveRogers]

He’s holding rallies, he’s vetting running mates, he’s starting feuds with his potential primary opponents and demanding they bend the knee. I don’t know what other smoke signals y’all are looking for. He’s literally already running for President right now. This is the invisible primary. We’re in it.