What NY Republicans will still be in congress?

[Tekken_Guy]

Which of the remaining Republicans in New York will still be in congress come 2023?

[Calthrina950]

The only three whom I'm absolutely confident about are Garbarino, Stefanik, and Jacobs. Whether Tenney or not remains depends on how her district is redrawn, or if it is combined or destroyed. And it also remains to be seen whether or not Democrats are going to dilute or dismantle Malliotakis's district.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

For a second my brain wondered why Zeldin wasn't on this list. Then I remembered he was retiring.

[😥]

Garbarino, Stefanik and Jacobs

[MATTROSE94]

All of them plus a couple more.

[Schiff for Senate]

If I was the NY Democratic Party, what I would work to do is make one less ultra-blue NYC district (because NY lost a district, largely I believe because of NYC), and convert the 1st (the R+6 Long Island district, being vacated by Zeldin) and 11th (Malliotakis' R+7 Staten Island seat) into blue seats (and give Garbarino a redder 2nd that takes in the reddest portions of the current NY01 and NY02). Out west I'd actually leave Tenney, Jacobs, and Stefanik alone; instead, I would go after Katko and focus on shoring up Delgado and to a lesser extent (S.P.) Maloney, as well as perhaps making Suozzi's seat a point or two bluer just to play it safe.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

If I was the NY Democratic Party, what I would work to do is make one less ultra-blue NYC district (because NY lost a district, largely I believe because of NYC), and convert the 1st (the R+6 Long Island district, being vacated by Zeldin) and 11th (Malliotakis' R+7 Staten Island seat) into blue seats (and give Garbarino a redder 2nd that takes in the reddest portions of the current NY01 and NY02). Out west I'd actually leave Tenney, Jacobs, and Stefanik alone; instead, I would go after Katko and focus on shoring up Delgado and to a lesser extent (S.P.) Maloney, as well as perhaps making Suozzi's seat a point or two bluer just to play it safe.

This is assuming the NY Dems have brains.

[Oryxslayer]

If I was the NY Democratic Party, what I would work to do is make one less ultra-blue NYC district (because NY lost a district, largely I believe because of NYC),

Well this is wrong, step out of your partisan blinders for a moment. The Five-Borough NYC had 8.17 Million people in 2010, 8.8 Million in 2020. The surrounding six suburban counties - Long Island and the four to the North - went from 4.57 Million to 4.76 Million in the same period. All the Counties north of Putnam and Orange lost a net 3K people, going from 6.636 to 6.633 Million. If we remove the Upstate Biden Counties and look only at Upstate Trump ones, the net loss is almost 100K people, going from 2.701 Million to 2.613.

This is precisely why Democrats are licking at their chops in NY and even while cutting a upstate R seat - almost certainly Tenney's based on geography - some have confident predictions of a reliably 22-4 map, and some dream of 23-3.

[Schiff for Senate]

If I was the NY Democratic Party, what I would work to do is make one less ultra-blue NYC district (because NY lost a district, largely I believe because of NYC), and convert the 1st (the R+6 Long Island district, being vacated by Zeldin) and 11th (Malliotakis' R+7 Staten Island seat) into blue seats (and give Garbarino a redder 2nd that takes in the reddest portions of the current NY01 and NY02). Out west I'd actually leave Tenney, Jacobs, and Stefanik alone; instead, I would go after Katko and focus on shoring up Delgado and to a lesser extent (S.P.) Maloney, as well as perhaps making Suozzi's seat a point or two bluer just to play it safe.

This is assuming the NY Dems have brains.

You think they're being too aggressive or not playing all their cards? Based on the first few maps, I would think the latter.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

If I was the NY Democratic Party, what I would work to do is make one less ultra-blue NYC district (because NY lost a district, largely I believe because of NYC), and convert the 1st (the R+6 Long Island district, being vacated by Zeldin) and 11th (Malliotakis' R+7 Staten Island seat) into blue seats (and give Garbarino a redder 2nd that takes in the reddest portions of the current NY01 and NY02). Out west I'd actually leave Tenney, Jacobs, and Stefanik alone; instead, I would go after Katko and focus on shoring up Delgado and to a lesser extent (S.P.) Maloney, as well as perhaps making Suozzi's seat a point or two bluer just to play it safe.

This is assuming the NY Dems have brains.

You think they're being too aggressive or not playing all their cards? Based on the first few maps, I would think the latter.

The latter. In IL for instance they could have gone for a 15-2 but instead went for a 14-3 to keep Bustos's district blue due to incumbent demands.

[Schiff for Senate]

If I was the NY Democratic Party, what I would work to do is make one less ultra-blue NYC district (because NY lost a district, largely I believe because of NYC), and convert the 1st (the R+6 Long Island district, being vacated by Zeldin) and 11th (Malliotakis' R+7 Staten Island seat) into blue seats (and give Garbarino a redder 2nd that takes in the reddest portions of the current NY01 and NY02). Out west I'd actually leave Tenney, Jacobs, and Stefanik alone; instead, I would go after Katko and focus on shoring up Delgado and to a lesser extent (S.P.) Maloney, as well as perhaps making Suozzi's seat a point or two bluer just to play it safe.

This is assuming the NY Dems have brains.

You think they're being too aggressive or not playing all their cards? Based on the first few maps, I would think the latter.

The latter. In IL for instance they could have gone for a 15-2 but instead went for a 14-3 to keep Bustos's district blue due to incumbent demands.

Honestly, I think they played their cards just right in IL. They gave Bustos a seat that's just blue enough that she should win even in 2022, but not blue enough that many votes are wasted. 15-2 would, even if possible, probably be a stretch and might be a dummymander, with one or more of the 15 blue seats flipping in 2022.

But in NY, unless they really intend on going more offensive than their first proposals suggest, they are really underplaying their hand; they can very easily eliminate multiple more red seats and shore up incumbents (they left Delgado's district about the same despite the fact that it barely voted for Biden and actually made S.P. Maloney's moderately competitive seat redder, all while leaving Garbarino and Malliotakis intact; Malliotakis could easily be taken down). The only gerrymandering I see this map doing is making Katko's seat even bluer so that it might finally flip, and making Zeldin's seat competitive, and eliminating Tenney's seat. Not bad at all, but they could do almost certainly do more (for starters, shore up Delgado and eliminate the 11th).

If I was the NY Democratic Party, what I would work to do is make one less ultra-blue NYC district (because NY lost a district, largely I believe because of NYC),

Well this is wrong, step out of your partisan blinders for a moment. The Five-Borough NYC had 8.17 Million people in 2010, 8.8 Million in 2020. The surrounding six suburban counties - Long Island and the four to the North - went from 4.57 Million to 4.76 Million in the same period. All the Counties north of Putnam and Orange lost a net 3K people, going from 6.636 to 6.633 Million. If we remove the Upstate Biden Counties and look only at Upstate Trump ones, the net loss is almost 100K people, going from 2.701 Million to 2.613.

This is precisely why Democrats are licking at their chops in NY and even while cutting a upstate R seat - almost certainly Tenney's based on geography - some have confident predictions of a reliably 22-4 map, and some dream of 23-3.

My mistake - and a big one at that.
But I don't have any 'partisan blinders;' I bash my own party and am less partisan than most other posters, honestly.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

If I was the NY Democratic Party, what I would work to do is make one less ultra-blue NYC district (because NY lost a district, largely I believe because of NYC), and convert the 1st (the R+6 Long Island district, being vacated by Zeldin) and 11th (Malliotakis' R+7 Staten Island seat) into blue seats (and give Garbarino a redder 2nd that takes in the reddest portions of the current NY01 and NY02). Out west I'd actually leave Tenney, Jacobs, and Stefanik alone; instead, I would go after Katko and focus on shoring up Delgado and to a lesser extent (S.P.) Maloney, as well as perhaps making Suozzi's seat a point or two bluer just to play it safe.

This is assuming the NY Dems have brains.

You think they're being too aggressive or not playing all their cards? Based on the first few maps, I would think the latter.

The latter. In IL for instance they could have gone for a 15-2 but instead went for a 14-3 to keep Bustos's district blue due to incumbent demands.

Honestly, I think they played their cards just right in IL. They gave Bustos a seat that's just blue enough that she should win even in 2022, but not blue enough that many votes are wasted. 15-2 would, even if possible, probably be a stretch and might be a dummymander, with one or more of the 15 blue seats flipping in 2022.

But in NY, unless they really intend on going more offensive than their first proposals suggest, they are really underplaying their hand; they can very easily eliminate multiple more red seats and shore up incumbents (they left Delgado's district about the same despite the fact that it barely voted for Biden and actually made S.P. Maloney's moderately competitive seat redder, all while leaving Garbarino and Malliotakis intact; Malliotakis could easily be taken down). The only gerrymandering I see this map doing is making Katko's seat even bluer so that it might finally flip, and making Zeldin's seat competitive, and eliminating Tenney's seat. Not bad at all, but they could do almost certainly do more (for starters, shore up Delgado and eliminate the 11th).

If I was the NY Democratic Party, what I would work to do is make one less ultra-blue NYC district (because NY lost a district, largely I believe because of NYC),

Well this is wrong, step out of your partisan blinders for a moment. The Five-Borough NYC had 8.17 Million people in 2010, 8.8 Million in 2020. The surrounding six suburban counties - Long Island and the four to the North - went from 4.57 Million to 4.76 Million in the same period. All the Counties north of Putnam and Orange lost a net 3K people, going from 6.636 to 6.633 Million. If we remove the Upstate Biden Counties and look only at Upstate Trump ones, the net loss is almost 100K people, going from 2.701 Million to 2.613.

This is precisely why Democrats are licking at their chops in NY and even while cutting a upstate R seat - almost certainly Tenney's based on geography - some have confident predictions of a reliably 22-4 map, and some dream of 23-3.

My mistake - and a big one at that.
But I don't have any 'partisan blinders;' I bash my own party and am less partisan than most other posters, honestly.

Or at least made the other districts more secure. Bustos demanded a safe seat and when she got it she retired.

[Schiff for Senate]

If I was the NY Democratic Party, what I would work to do is make one less ultra-blue NYC district (because NY lost a district, largely I believe because of NYC), and convert the 1st (the R+6 Long Island district, being vacated by Zeldin) and 11th (Malliotakis' R+7 Staten Island seat) into blue seats (and give Garbarino a redder 2nd that takes in the reddest portions of the current NY01 and NY02). Out west I'd actually leave Tenney, Jacobs, and Stefanik alone; instead, I would go after Katko and focus on shoring up Delgado and to a lesser extent (S.P.) Maloney, as well as perhaps making Suozzi's seat a point or two bluer just to play it safe.

This is assuming the NY Dems have brains.

You think they're being too aggressive or not playing all their cards? Based on the first few maps, I would think the latter.

The latter. In IL for instance they could have gone for a 15-2 but instead went for a 14-3 to keep Bustos's district blue due to incumbent demands.

Honestly, I think they played their cards just right in IL. They gave Bustos a seat that's just blue enough that she should win even in 2022, but not blue enough that many votes are wasted. 15-2 would, even if possible, probably be a stretch and might be a dummymander, with one or more of the 15 blue seats flipping in 2022.

But in NY, unless they really intend on going more offensive than their first proposals suggest, they are really underplaying their hand; they can very easily eliminate multiple more red seats and shore up incumbents (they left Delgado's district about the same despite the fact that it barely voted for Biden and actually made S.P. Maloney's moderately competitive seat redder, all while leaving Garbarino and Malliotakis intact; Malliotakis could easily be taken down). The only gerrymandering I see this map doing is making Katko's seat even bluer so that it might finally flip, and making Zeldin's seat competitive, and eliminating Tenney's seat. Not bad at all, but they could do almost certainly do more (for starters, shore up Delgado and eliminate the 11th).

If I was the NY Democratic Party, what I would work to do is make one less ultra-blue NYC district (because NY lost a district, largely I believe because of NYC),

Well this is wrong, step out of your partisan blinders for a moment. The Five-Borough NYC had 8.17 Million people in 2010, 8.8 Million in 2020. The surrounding six suburban counties - Long Island and the four to the North - went from 4.57 Million to 4.76 Million in the same period. All the Counties north of Putnam and Orange lost a net 3K people, going from 6.636 to 6.633 Million. If we remove the Upstate Biden Counties and look only at Upstate Trump ones, the net loss is almost 100K people, going from 2.701 Million to 2.613.

This is precisely why Democrats are licking at their chops in NY and even while cutting a upstate R seat - almost certainly Tenney's based on geography - some have confident predictions of a reliably 22-4 map, and some dream of 23-3.

My mistake - and a big one at that.
But I don't have any 'partisan blinders;' I bash my own party and am less partisan than most other posters, honestly.

Or at least made the other districts more secure. Bustos demanded a safe seat and when she got it she retired.

I mean, Biden+7.8 isn't that safe a seat in a Biden midterm, or at least it doesn't waste (m)any votes. And none of the other Biden districts went blue by less than 11 points. So I honestly don't think they really made any mistake with their maps. I don't think they could have done much better...all the Trump districts went red by over 20 points (and really, that's only the 16th; the other two hover around the Trump+40 mark).

[progressive85]

I would imagine the red wave would keep even ones that would generally be vulnerable in for a longer time... and to be fair, a non-gerrymandered map would have a swing district in NYC (Brooklyn and Queens, perhaps?).  Staten Island would probably retain its conservative seat. 

Am I wrong or is the loss going to come from Upstate?

[Ferguson97]

If Dems go with this brutal gerrymander, they may be stuck with 3...

https://twitter.com/brent_peabody/status/1483466223912374273

[Suburbia]

Garbarino, Malliotakis and Jacobs.

Why Malliotakis? Even if Manhattan is added, she has the NYPD vote locked, and I don't know if Max Rose can withstand this.

It's a midterm year, NY-11 is Tossup as of now.

[NewYorkExpress]

All except for Malliotakis.

I think even a neutral map should produce a district that would knock her out unless Republicans are picking up more than 100 seats in the House.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

The red wave will keep most in, but a lot will lose in 2024.

[beesley]

For a second my brain wondered why Zeldin wasn't on this list. Then I remembered he was retiring.

Me too! Anyway I voted Garbarino, Stefanik, Jacobs

[Suburbia]

All except for Malliotakis.

I think even a neutral map should produce a district that would knock her out unless Republicans are picking up more than 100 seats in the House.

I think Malliotakis holds on, the cop vote will be too much for Democrats to overcome

[coloradocowboi]

All except for Malliotakis.

I think even a neutral map should produce a district that would knock her out unless Republicans are picking up more than 100 seats in the House.

I think Malliotakis holds on, the cop vote will be too much for Democrats to overcome

If she gets even an inch of Manhattan, which is planned, she is toast.

[Suburbia]

All except for Malliotakis.

I think even a neutral map should produce a district that would knock her out unless Republicans are picking up more than 100 seats in the House.

I think Malliotakis holds on, the cop vote will be too much for Democrats to overcome

If she gets even an inch of Manhattan, which is planned, she is toast.

Which Democrats win will have to cooperate with the cop community, especially in this age.

[coloradocowboi]

All except for Malliotakis.

I think even a neutral map should produce a district that would knock her out unless Republicans are picking up more than 100 seats in the House.

I think Malliotakis holds on, the cop vote will be too much for Democrats to overcome

If she gets even an inch of Manhattan, which is planned, she is toast.

Which Democrats win will have to cooperate with the cop community, especially in this age.

I have no idea what that means, but def not true in this case. It's even worse than getting a slice of Manhattan - she's getting Park Slope, a bastion of LGBT and progressive activism. She's DOA now

[Tintrlvr]

If I was the NY Democratic Party, what I would work to do is make one less ultra-blue NYC district (because NY lost a district, largely I believe because of NYC), and convert the 1st (the R+6 Long Island district, being vacated by Zeldin) and 11th (Malliotakis' R+7 Staten Island seat) into blue seats (and give Garbarino a redder 2nd that takes in the reddest portions of the current NY01 and NY02). Out west I'd actually leave Tenney, Jacobs, and Stefanik alone; instead, I would go after Katko and focus on shoring up Delgado and to a lesser extent (S.P.) Maloney, as well as perhaps making Suozzi's seat a point or two bluer just to play it safe.

NY lost a district, but entirely not because of NYC, which grew faster than the country 2010-2020. Some of the NYC districts are actually oversized and have to shrink a bit, even with a district being lost.

[Suburbia]

All except for Malliotakis.

I think even a neutral map should produce a district that would knock her out unless Republicans are picking up more than 100 seats in the House.

I think Malliotakis holds on, the cop vote will be too much for Democrats to overcome

If she gets even an inch of Manhattan, which is planned, she is toast.

Which Democrats win will have to cooperate with the cop community, especially in this age.

I have no idea what that means, but def not true in this case. It's even worse than getting a slice of Manhattan - she's getting Park Slope, a bastion of LGBT and progressive activism. She's DOA now

That Democrat will have to be a New Democrat or a Blue Dog, so Staten Island's needs are not diluted