49-state landslide scenarios
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  49-state landslide scenarios
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Author Topic: 49-state landslide scenarios  (Read 1637 times)
Roll Roons
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« on: November 06, 2021, 05:55:31 PM »

I know there's virtually zero chance of this happening. But in a hypothetical scenario where one party got a 49-state landslide, what would be the last holdout on both sides? Not counting DC because it would be the obvious answer for a 49-state GOP win.

My guess: California or Maryland in a Republican landslide, and Arkansas or Oklahoma in a Democratic one.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #1 on: November 07, 2021, 04:47:19 AM »

My guess: California or Maryland in a Republican landslide, and Arkansas or Oklahoma in a Democratic one.

Seems about right, except I think Alabama would be more likely to be the last Republican holdout than Oklahoma.
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Inmate Trump
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« Reply #2 on: November 07, 2021, 08:00:51 AM »





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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: November 07, 2021, 08:30:40 AM »

It's a 304:map it's not gonna be a landslide unless Covid is over, Divided Govt
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Inmate Trump
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« Reply #4 on: November 07, 2021, 08:34:10 AM »

It's a 304:map it's not gonna be a landslide unless Covid is over, Divided Govt




The OP literally agreed this won't happen.  It's just a hypothetical.
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Vespucci
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« Reply #5 on: November 07, 2021, 08:46:14 AM »

Arkansas or Oklahoma for the GOP, Hawaii for the Dems.
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omar04
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« Reply #6 on: November 07, 2021, 03:22:25 PM »

D.C. would definitely have the only Democratic electors in a Republican landslide, Democrats get >90% of the vote share there in Presidential elections.
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kwabbit
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« Reply #7 on: November 07, 2021, 05:16:49 PM »

I think Wyoming would be the last holdout for the GOP and Maryland for the Dems. Vermont/Mass/Hawaii might be as or more Dem than Maryland, but Maryland is just super inelastic. It's a state largely composed of government employees and Black voters, while Vermont is lily White and rural.
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Asenath Waite
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« Reply #8 on: November 07, 2021, 05:27:24 PM »

Definitely Maryland for the Dems, IMO this would happen in a world in which a socially moderate Republican was the nominee and the Democrat had doubled down on gun control to the point where all of upper New England ended up being out of reach.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #9 on: November 07, 2021, 06:34:54 PM »

The 1 Outlier:
WY for REP
CA for DEM
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Xing
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« Reply #10 on: November 08, 2021, 11:18:43 PM »

California for the Democrats, Oklahoma for the Republicans.
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TML
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #11 on: November 08, 2021, 11:40:00 PM »

If we’re talking about individual electoral votes, then I think NE-03 will be the last Republican holdout [IMO, if we were to take the largest PV margin in history (1920) and give it to the Democratic side, the EC would be 537-1, with only NE-03 voting R.].
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One Term Floridian
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« Reply #12 on: November 08, 2021, 11:41:27 PM »

MA + DC for the Dems (lol this already happened in 72) & WY + NE-03 for the GOP
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bagelman
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« Reply #13 on: November 09, 2021, 07:26:25 AM »

VT will not be the outlier it's too white, rural, and elastic.

HI is the best option. MA is very D but was willing to elect Scott Brown and Charlie Baker. MD also willing to elect Larry Hogan. What GOPer can win mostly asian or pacific HI?
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« Reply #14 on: November 09, 2021, 09:38:41 AM »

VT will not be the outlier it's too white, rural, and elastic.

HI is the best option. MA is very D but was willing to elect Scott Brown and Charlie Baker. MD also willing to elect Larry Hogan. What GOPer can win mostly asian or pacific HI?
Linda Lingle
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Biden his time
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« Reply #15 on: November 09, 2021, 04:14:53 PM »

Talkelections.org be like:

Quote


Image Link

Safe Democratic - Maine
Safe Republican - Florida
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #16 on: November 09, 2021, 04:19:50 PM »

I could see Oklahoma for the Republicans because I think that the best way to a 49 state landslide these days would involve a third party and Oklahoma is (or at least was) notoriously hard for third parties to get on the ballot.

Leaning California (and DC) for the Dems.
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Samof94
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« Reply #17 on: November 13, 2021, 02:26:03 PM »

It certainly wouldn’t be NH.
West Virginia? Connecticut?
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #18 on: January 25, 2022, 03:58:56 PM »


While Republicans have had consistent strength in the Plains, a wipeout scenario would have to involve some kind of farm crisis. It would have to be a Mountain West state. Could also see a large part of the population freaking out about a world war under a Democrat given the NWO conspiracy milita history in that region.


For the Republican, I'm picturing some kind of world war scenario where only a progressive is willing to challenge the president. Think the immediate aftermath of 9/11.
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Shaula🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #19 on: January 26, 2022, 07:33:22 AM »

Wyoming has too small of a population, WV is vulnerable to a wild swing or populist third party. So for the Republicans I'm going with Oklahoma.
Vermont is vulnerable to a progressive third party challenger and California/New York have the very small potential to swing Republican. For the Democrats I'm going with Maryland.
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Captain Chaos
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« Reply #20 on: January 26, 2022, 11:20:53 AM »

Utah or Idaho for the Republicans.
New York or Vermont for the Democrats.
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