CNN: Russia plotting false flag event in Ukraine

[BigSerg]

Um, you do understand that supporting friendly relations with another country, and speaking the language of that country, is not the same as being okay with an invasion, right? Otherwise, the Irish should welcome the British army with open arms, and the same with the Austrians and Germany, Canadians and the US, and so on.

Lol, all these regions had massive protests against the coup and have always voted for the pro-Russian candidate

[Statilius the Epicurean]

"Massive" lol, few tens of thousands in a handful of them at most. We got more than that in our Brexit demos here so guess France has the right to invade and conquer the UK. Maybe China should take over Siberia the next time there are anti-government protests in Khabarovsk.

[MaxQue]

Um, you do understand that supporting friendly relations with another country, and speaking the language of that country, is not the same as being okay with an invasion, right? Otherwise, the Irish should welcome the British army with open arms, and the same with the Austrians and Germany, Canadians and the US, and so on.

Lol, all these regions had massive protests against the coup and have always voted for the pro-Russian candidate

I suspect many of them were under duress of pro-Putin armed mobs.

[BigSerg]

"Massive" lol, few tens of thousands in a handful of them at most. We got more than that in our Brexit demos here so guess France has the right to invade and conquer the UK. Maybe China should take over Siberia the next time there are anti-government protests in Khabarovsk.

Regions have massively voted for the pro-Russian candidate throughout history, speak Russian and protest against an illegitimate coup d'etat = They love the Ukrainian government!

I honestly can't believe all the bullsh**t on this forum to not accept that at least 30% of "Ukrainians" would willingly join Russia.

[Helsinkian]

Lol, all these regions had massive protests against the coup and have always voted for the pro-Russian candidate

Maybe you should look at more recent elections. In the 2019 parliamentary election the pro-Russia party was the biggest only in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Ukrainian_parliamentary_election

[Filuwaúrdjan]

"Massive" lol, few tens of thousands in a handful of them at most. We got more than that in our Brexit demos here so guess France has the right to invade and conquer the UK. Maybe China should take over Siberia the next time there are anti-government protests in Khabarovsk.

...and the pro-Russian candidate only lead in the far east of the country (in the parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts not under Russian occupation plus one electoral district in Kharkiv oblast) and in the Budjak region. The rest of that big blue swathe on all those classic Ukrainian electoral maps? Nope.

[BigSerg]

Lol, all these regions had massive protests against the coup and have always voted for the pro-Russian candidate

Maybe you should look at more recent elections. In the 2019 parliamentary election the pro-Russia party was the biggest only in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Ukrainian_parliamentary_election

That was a very special election as Zelensky won the entire pro-Russian "anyone but Poroshenko" vote

Literally since Ukraine became independent, the pro-Russian candidate has won elections in those regions with the sole exception of 2019

[BigSerg]

Even the state pollster (very dubious reliability) shows that 21% of Ukrainians would prefer Russia to NATO.

“In the face of Russian military aggression, Ukrainians remain supportive of both NATO and EU membership,” said Stephen Nix, Director of IRI’s Eurasia Division. “The accession into a strong community of democracies will strengthen economic opportunities and bolster defenses against foreign threats.”

When asked which international economic union they would join if Ukraine could only join one, 58% of Ukrainians chose the EU. Only 21% support joining a Customs Union with Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. If a referendum were held on joining NATO, 54% would vote to join the military alliance.

https://www.iri.org/resource/iri-ukraine-poll-shows-support-eunato-membership-concerns-over-economy-and-vaccines-covid

[Statilius the Epicurean]

LOL so voting Zelensky = pro-Russian annexation now? Favouring a customs union with a country means you support it invading? Mate just give it up.  

[BigSerg]

LOL so voting Zelensky = pro-Russian annexation now? Favouring a customs union with a country means you support it invading?  

Dude, is it so hard for you to accept that 30% of Ukrainians simply agree to join Russia?

At this point, even if there is an invasion and there is no "insurgency" in the occupied regions, you would refuse to accept it. It is useless to argue with you. According to my calculations and if we are lucky, very soon we will know who is right and who is wrong, I just hope you accept it.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Dude, is it so hard for you to accept that 30% of Ukrainians simply agree to join Russia?

So you've retreated to just making up numbers now lmao.

At this point, even if there is an invasion and there is no "insurgency" in the occupied regions, you would refuse to accept it. It is useless to argue with you. According to my calculations and if we are lucky, very soon we will know who is right and who is wrong, I just hope you accept it.

I hope no country invades and subjugates the territory of a neighbour whose people have shown no desire to be conquered by a foreign army.

[BigSerg]

Dude, is it so hard for you to accept that 30% of Ukrainians simply agree to join Russia?

So you've retreated to just making up numbers now lmao.

At this point, even if there is an invasion and there is no "insurgency" in the occupied regions, you would refuse to accept it. It is useless to argue with you. According to my calculations and if we are lucky, very soon we will know who is right and who is wrong, I just hope you accept it.

I hope no country invades and subjugates the territory of a neighbour whose people have shown no desire to be conquered by a foreign army.

Blah blah blah, we'll see

[All Along The Watchtower]

Um, you do understand that supporting friendly relations with another country, and speaking the language of that country, is not the same as being okay with an invasion, right? Otherwise, the Irish should welcome the British army with open arms, and the same with the Austrians and Germany, Canadians and the US, and so on.

I mean there’s historical precedent for the bolded…

[😥]

The Central Intelligence Agency of Ukraine also reported this information. In any case, I think Putin has already decided to invade and it will happen.

Do really think this is going to happen and affect the whole territory of Ukraine?

If so, the US and EU should cripple Russia with extremely tough sanctions and take as many Ukrainians as possible. Anyway, I hope you're going to be alright.

No, I don't think it will affect the whole territory of Ukraine. Ukraine will resist and it will not be a quick capture, it will be a long bloody war. I would say that Russia will not go further than the Left Bank Ukraine with some exceptions.

I would expect something like this:

map

Brown - already invaded
Red - will be invaded
Green - parts of the oblasts will be invaded
Blue - won't be invaded

Anyway, thank you for your support

A lot of the marked provinces are minority Russian, are you sure Putin would go for them?

Crimea and the 2 eastern "states" that have been taken are logical choices, because a good majority identify as Russian, so it's basically just "extending" Russia.

Taking a majority Ukranian province, however, is not as easy, since resistance and resentment is guaranteed.

Russia can occupy all these regions without any problems (blue regions). These regions are mostly pro-Russian

maps

The share of the population of the regions that indicated Ukrainian as their native language according to the latest census


The most common native language in cities, towns and villages according to the latest census

Why am I not surprised that BigSerg is spreading Russian propaganda again? And this man, for whom all the people who voted for Yanukovych are Russian-speaking and will welcome the Russian invasion, says that I am misinforming people. I have already said this, but I will repeat it again and again, shame on you, BigSerg

[CumbrianLefty]

Russia isn't going to occupy half of Ukraine, whatever armchair warrior "BigSerg"s fantasies.

[😥]

Ukrainian intelligence reports that in Gorlivka, which is under Russian occupation, toxic substances are leaking into the air from ammonia tanks. This can be used as an excuse to expand armed aggression against Ukraine.

Chief Directorate of Intelligence: "According to the military intelligence of Ukraine, on January 14 ammonia tanks were delivered to Gorlivka occupied by Russian troops at the "Concern Stirol" enterprise, from which toxic substances were leaked into the air due to leaks.

The man-made catastrophe caused by the actions of the Russian occupiers can be used to accuse Ukraine of using toxic chemicals and as an excuse to expand armed aggression against Ukraine."

Details: Intelligence believes that the Russian occupation administration has lost control over chemicals imported into the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, and chemical pollution could lead to an environmental catastrophe in the east of Ukraine.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Russia isn't going to occupy half of Ukraine, whatever armchair warrior "BigSerg"s fantasies.

Possibly. This thread was interesting in that it laid out the likelihood of a Georgia 2008 scenario, where Russia destroys the Ukrainian military and withdraws back to the Donbass after a couple of weeks.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1481420911479861256?s=20

I still don't know if that would be worth it. Not sure what it solves for Russia long-term.

[KaiserDave]

BREAKING News: BigSerg has tested positive for being a lying hack! He must be quarantined to prevent the spread of his massive stupidity.

[Storr]

Russia isn't going to occupy half of Ukraine, whatever armchair warrior "BigSerg"s fantasies.

Possibly. This thread was interesting in that it laid out the likelihood of a Georgia 2008 scenario, where Russia destroys the Ukrainian military and withdraws back to the Donbass after a couple of weeks.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1481420911479861256?s=20

I still don't know if that would be worth it. Not sure what it solves for Russia long-term.

It would do what to Ukraine what it did to Georgia in 2008: indefinitely stall the country's progress towards joining NATO and the EU, without incurring the costs of a long term occupation. Ukraine has made significant progress since 2014, where it had to mostly rely on quickly assembled volunteer brigades in the Donbass. Though still nowhere near to NATO standards, Russia sees Ukraine's military, and possible accession to NATO, as a threat to its interests (specifically the breakaway regions that have Russian support, just as in Georgia).

I can see a short invasion which would destroy Ukraine's military capacity and leave the country in the "grey zone" that Georgia has been stuck in since 2008 being a successful outcome for Russia. Pro-Russian breakaway regions are key pieces of leverage the Kremlin uses to prevent ex-Soviet Republics from integrating with Europe (joining NATO and the EU) and leaving their "sphere of influence". As a result, Russia doesn't want Ukraine to have a military capable of retaking the occupied Donbass.

No doubt if Lukashenko was overthrown after his "re-election" in 2020, Russia would have set up some "Mogliev People's Republic" in eastern Belarus which would have prevented in perpetuity, the country's full alignment shift away from Russia.

[Former President tack50]

Regarding the "shift" in political maps, is it really that hard to imagine that plenty of Ukranians with former pro-Russian sympaties went on to sour with Russia after it took over a significant chunk of the country?

Being pro-Russian does not mean you want Russia to annex you presumably

[Agonized-Statism]

I still don't know if that would be worth it. Not sure what it solves for Russia long-term.

Could Putin be looking for prestige? His popularity has been in steady decline long-term.

[StateBoiler]

I still don't know if that would be worth it. Not sure what it solves for Russia long-term.

Could Putin be looking for prestige? His popularity has been in steady decline long-term.

Does it really matter what the Russian motivation is? All that matters is the Russians are going to do it, they'll almost certainly succeed in whatever their military goals are as long as they're within limits, and everyone's going to stand by and watch not stopping them.

[Agonized-Statism]

I still don't know if that would be worth it. Not sure what it solves for Russia long-term.

Could Putin be looking for prestige? His popularity has been in steady decline long-term.

Does it really matter what the Russian motivation is? All that matters is the Russians are going to do it, they'll almost certainly succeed in whatever their military goals are as long as they're within limits, and everyone's going to stand by and watch not stopping them.

It's kind of important to understand motives, yes.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I still don't know if that would be worth it. Not sure what it solves for Russia long-term.

Could Putin be looking for prestige? His popularity has been in steady decline long-term.

It's not like his approvals are that low. Now Yeltsin, he had 2% or 6% or something amazingly bad like that.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Hopefully the US/NATO is secretly training and arming future Ukrainian guerrilla groups.

There are both Canadian and US special forces on the ground in Ukraine doing training, so that's not so much a "hopefully is" and more of a "currently are and have been".

https://coffeeordie.com/usaf-ukraine/

US forces have been training Ukrainian troops since 2015 at a base near the western Ukrainian town of Yavoriv. And US special operations forces from various branches have conducted other training for Ukrainian forces at sites across the country. However, US military forces are not involved in the ongoing war against Russia in the east.

https://globalnews.ca/news/8517110/canada-special-forces-ukraine-russia

“(The Canadian Special Operations Forces Command) is part of the broader Armed Forces’ efforts to support Ukraine’s Security Forces,” wrote Maj. Amber Bineau, a spokesperson for special operations command, in a statement to Global News.

Bineau noted that Canadian special forces have been providing training, as well as “instructor and leadership expertise,” to Ukrainian counterparts since 2020 — although sources told Global News the latest special forces contingent, which left for Ukraine around Jan. 9, is not conducting training.