Which state is Biden more likely to win?

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Although the "fundamentals" favor Democrats long-term in Texas, Alaska is smaller and less expensive to campaign in. I don't think that Biden will win either state, but I would not be surprised to see a Biden landslide (relative to the polarized environment) where he barely wins Alaska and barely loses Texas.

[Redban]

Texas because if his people sees that he has a chance there, they will put hardcore-levels of resources into carrying the state. Alaska, on the other hand, is small and remote, and Biden’s people may not give priority to targeting the state. (I remember Obama‘s campaign, pre-Palin, put some resources into Alaska though)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Neither because Biden has a 40% Approval rating

[Chips]

TX.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why do we still have these type of TX winning threads the only way TX is in play is if Beto wins and Castro ran for Senate in 24 but The Border wall is the story and Biden stopped building it

But, Covid is responsible it OU don't let unvaccinated Immigrants I'm when you have a COVID surge

[patzer]

Texas- I wouldn't be surprised if he wins Alaska and loses Texas, but I think the reverse is more likely.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Texas- I wouldn't be surprised if he wins Alaska and loses Texas, but I think the reverse is more likely.

Did you see the latest poll on TX Beto is down 15 pts

[patzer]

Texas- I wouldn't be surprised if he wins Alaska and loses Texas, but I think the reverse is more likely.

Did you see the latest poll on TX Beto is down 15 pts

2022 gubernatorial is not 2024 presidential

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Texas- I wouldn't be surprised if he wins Alaska and loses Texas, but I think the reverse is more likely.

Did you see the latest poll on TX Beto is down 15 pts

2022 gubernatorial is not 2024 presidential

.

It doesn't matter, Border Security Biden is 30/65 underwater in TX

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL is more likely to flip than TX with Crist and Demings  Crist was Gov already and FL is a no state income tax state and Crist didn't raise taxes as R Gov

[PSOL]

Alaska, because the Republican hold on power is weaker due to its incompetent and unpopular government

[TDAS04]

Alaska.  Its small population and traditionally strong support for third candidates make it swingier, and less predictable.

[bayareabay]

Texas is growing quickly and changing. Most of the cities are trending left and will eventually flip the state.

[Ferguson97]

Texas. If you look at the 2016-->2018-->2020 growth, Democrats are in very good shape if they can consistently that.

Alaska is JNTY.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX obviously but in a wave Bill Walker whom was Gov already has a better chance than Beto to win

[Schiff for Senate]

Texas because if his people sees that he has a chance there, they will put hardcore-levels of resources into carrying the state. Alaska, on the other hand, is small and remote, and Biden’s people may not give priority to targeting the state. (I remember Obama‘s campaign, pre-Palin, put some resources into Alaska though)

This. I get what Scott's saying but states that may be unexpectedly competitive very rarely actually flip because since no one expects it to flip no one puts resources into it the way resources are put in perceivedly competitive states such as TX. So even if AK might initially somehow be more competitive than TX, the lack of focu on AK will likely prompt it to vote to the left of AK (it will anyway though; TX was Trump+5 and AK was Trump+10).

[OneJ]

I'd still say Texas mainly because of Alaska being a much smaller state to the point where it's not immune to random (and sometimes big) swings while Texas is going in a comparitively clearer direction (though both seem to be trending in the same direction) even if Texas might be some years off.

[kwabbit]

Alaska. I expect Texas to have a more narrow margin, but Alaska is also trending solidly left and is a unique state politically.

Haven't done any research on this, but a lot of Asian and Pacific groups are pro-incumbent, so perhaps Alaskan Natives might be. There are many actual Asian voters there as well. Obama did pretty well in 2012, but Palin dropping from the ticket clouds things. As does the Nader vote declining from 2000 to 2004.

Texas has a ton of Hispanics to mute Democratic trends in the suburbs, so I don't think it can shift enough to be won in 2028 unless there's a Biden landslide which seems unlikely at this point.

[Pericles]

Alaska. I expect Texas to have a more narrow margin, but Alaska is also trending solidly left and is a unique state politically.

Haven't done any research on this, but a lot of Asian and Pacific groups are pro-incumbent, so perhaps Alaskan Natives might be. There are many actual Asian voters there as well. Obama did pretty well in 2012, but Palin dropping from the ticket clouds things. As does the Nader vote declining from 2000 to 2004.

Texas has a ton of Hispanics to mute Democratic trends in the suburbs, so I don't think it can shift enough to be won in 2028 unless there's a Biden landslide which seems unlikely at this point.

By that logic Hispanics are pro-incumbent too though.

[Skill and Chance]

I'm going to go contrarian and say Alaska.  Not that many votes would have to change.  Also, I wouldn't be surprised if Texas trends back right a bit.   

[bagelman]

Here's a scenario where one or the other is needed

[Red Wall]

Alaska. Biden essentially doomed Texas for dems for a decsde cause once president he turned into a terrible fit for the state.

[Xing]

Texas. Alaska might be a viable option for Democrats some time soon, but it’s unironically “not there yet.” Texas is definitely a state that I could see shocking people on a good night for Democrats, especially since Trump’s margin has lulled some back into thinking the state is safe for Republicans (even though it still swung three and a half points to the left despite a massive Republican swing in South Texas.) It probably holds for Republicans in a close race, but they should not overplay their hand or take it for granted.

[deluxedriver]

Alaska only comes into play if there's some really weird shenanigans happen in the short terms, so right now Texas.