When did the Democrats lose the Obama - Trump Voters?

[Agonized-Statism]

2014 was definitely the watershed year. The immigration crisis that year was where the energy for Trump's campaign came from, and the alt-right's rallying cry was Gamergate. In geopolitics, there was the Russian annexation of Crimea, ISIS, and the Cuban Thaw. Not to mention the Ferguson protests and the Flint water crisis. Oh, and then there was the domestic surveillance stuff we all disturbingly stopped talking about because Trump conveniently showed up to discredit the word "populism".

2016 has to be understood both as a "lucky break" for Republicans- because Trump came out of nowhere and had broader appeal than the usual Republican- and deterministically, as a result of an inadequate conclusion to the Great Recession or the War on Terror on Obama's part and a natural rebound for Republicans from the Farm Crisis lows in the Midwest. A grassroots conservative was inevitable but their win wasn't.

[Agonized-Statism]

They lost them at many various points. The important question now is how many of them can be returned to the Democratic fold post-Trump, how they might be bought back, and if it's worth it.

Those voters won’t return to fold unless Democrats basically give up on racial justice and equality issues and become economic populists.

They could definitely abstain if the Republican nominee is declared a "RINO".