When did the Democrats lose the Obama - Trump Voters?
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  When did the Democrats lose the Obama - Trump Voters?
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Author Topic: When did the Democrats lose the Obama - Trump Voters?  (Read 2749 times)
WPADEM
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« on: January 13, 2022, 07:43:54 PM »

Specifically those who voted for Barack Obama in 2012 only to swing towards Donald Trump in 2016.
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« Reply #1 on: January 13, 2022, 09:55:13 PM »

Probably in mid-2016 when the Dallas lunatic killed 5 officers after the Alton Sterling and Philando Castile police murders.

This country still holds law enforcement in very high regard, Latino voters as well.

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Computer89
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« Reply #2 on: January 14, 2022, 12:18:47 AM »

Id say Ferguson was really when they lost that voter
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #3 on: January 14, 2022, 12:35:19 AM »

The murder of Trayvon Martin, probably, specifically when Obama said that if had a son he'd look like Trayvon.

A lot of people were fine voting for a black president, but not a Black president.

Id say Ferguson was really when they lost that voter

Hey, don't blame this all on me! /s
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Computer89
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« Reply #4 on: January 14, 2022, 12:36:44 AM »

The murder of Trayvon Martin, probably, specifically when Obama said that if had a son he'd look like Trayvon.

A lot of people were fine voting for a black president, but not a Black president.

Id say Ferguson was really when they lost that voter

Hey, don't blame this all on me! /s

Obama won those same voters literally the year Trayvon Martin happened
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TML
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« Reply #5 on: January 14, 2022, 02:14:33 AM »
« Edited: January 14, 2022, 05:23:53 PM by TML »

It didn't happen overnight. Back when Obama ran, he promised economic help toward many working-class people. Once in office, however, he didn't actually deliver as much economic help as he had promised (and he clearly could have done more than he actually did, even if he wasn't going to be able to do every single thing he promised), and when Trump came along, he also promised economic help toward working-class people, while Hillary largely campaigned on maintaining the status quo. Those things were the final things that flipped these voters.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #6 on: January 14, 2022, 12:06:59 PM »

The murder of Trayvon Martin, probably, specifically when Obama said that if had a son he'd look like Trayvon.

A lot of people were fine voting for a black president, but not a Black president.

Id say Ferguson was really when they lost that voter

Hey, don't blame this all on me! /s

Obama won those same voters literally the year Trayvon Martin happened

Oh I misremembered when it happened then, I could've sworn it was 2013.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #7 on: January 14, 2022, 12:53:12 PM »

I'd say it was around 2014/2015, when there was a huge inordinate amount of focus on police brutality, and when "wokeism" started to become the prevailing cultural ideology on the left, promoted by none other than Obama himself. He relentlessly promoted the idea that women were earning 70 cents on the dollar of every man (not true when controlled) and that black men are being discriminated against by police (true, but divisive). Remember that Obama also promoted the TPP that even most of his party was opposed to, and Hillary was waffly on. That probably had an effect on this demographic that was unfavorable toward international trade deals. People forget but Obama's approval throughout most of his 2nd term was pretty awful, only in 2016 did it imrpove, probably because most of the political discussion was off of him and on Trump and Hillary. A lot of working class areas were being won by Republicans in 2014, whether it was Elise Stefanik's northern NY district, ME's 2nd district with Poliqun, or Iowa's 1st district. That was a sign, even as Republicans still did way better in the college-educated suburban districts in 2014. But 2016 really was a dramatic shift in the political coalitions that not a lot of people could predict the extent of.
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WPADEM
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« Reply #8 on: January 16, 2022, 11:36:21 AM »

I'd say it was around 2014/2015, when there was a huge inordinate amount of focus on police brutality, and when "wokeism" started to become the prevailing cultural ideology on the left, promoted by none other than Obama himself. He relentlessly promoted the idea that women were earning 70 cents on the dollar of every man (not true when controlled) and that black men are being discriminated against by police (true, but divisive). Remember that Obama also promoted the TPP that even most of his party was opposed to, and Hillary was waffly on. That probably had an effect on this demographic that was unfavorable toward international trade deals. People forget but Obama's approval throughout most of his 2nd term was pretty awful, only in 2016 did it imrpove, probably because most of the political discussion was off of him and on Trump and Hillary. A lot of working class areas were being won by Republicans in 2014, whether it was Elise Stefanik's northern NY district, ME's 2nd district with Poliqun, or Iowa's 1st district. That was a sign, even as Republicans still did way better in the college-educated suburban districts in 2014. But 2016 really was a dramatic shift in the political coalitions that not a lot of people could predict the extent of.


You have brought up a lot of great points.  It definitely does seem that 2014 was a real turning point politically and culturally.  Just a few observations about that year that I want to ad.

1. With the rise of ISIS and the surge of minors crossing the Rio Grande that summer, Obama and the Democrats came across being negligent and in denial about those situations. In 2016, Trump's two biggest issues were Immigration and Terrorism. While a lot of voters support ending endless wars, when those countries collapse (or nearly do) without our presence, public opinion really shifts.  I can remember people not wanting us to intervene in Syria in 2013 only become major hawks on ISIS two years later.


2. Hillary had her book tour, which did not go well and demonstrated that she had a lot of work to do to be a viable candidate for the Presidency.  Also Bill Clinton hit the campaign trail for a lot of Democrats in 2014 and had little effect on preventing the loses that the Democrats suffered that year.


3.  I remember observing a lot of Republicans and Conservatives stating that they felt that the Republican party was not representing them and that they were allowing Obama to do what ever he wanted.  While I have issues with this belief, I do believe that 2014 was year when the disconnect between the Republican Party and its voters reached a critical mass.
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WPADEM
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« Reply #9 on: January 16, 2022, 11:37:31 AM »

It didn't happen overnight. Back when Obama ran, he promised economic help toward many working-class people. Once in office, however, he didn't actually deliver as much economic help as he had promised (and he clearly could have done more than he actually did, even if he wasn't going to be able to do every single thing he promised), and when Trump came along, he also promised economic help toward working-class people, while Hillary largely campaigned on maintaining the status quo. Those things were the final things that flipped these voters.


Despite my earlier reply to ElectionsGuy, this I agree with as well.
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Computer89
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« Reply #10 on: January 16, 2022, 02:48:13 PM »

I'd say it was around 2014/2015, when there was a huge inordinate amount of focus on police brutality, and when "wokeism" started to become the prevailing cultural ideology on the left, promoted by none other than Obama himself. He relentlessly promoted the idea that women were earning 70 cents on the dollar of every man (not true when controlled) and that black men are being discriminated against by police (true, but divisive). Remember that Obama also promoted the TPP that even most of his party was opposed to, and Hillary was waffly on. That probably had an effect on this demographic that was unfavorable toward international trade deals. People forget but Obama's approval throughout most of his 2nd term was pretty awful, only in 2016 did it imrpove, probably because most of the political discussion was off of him and on Trump and Hillary. A lot of working class areas were being won by Republicans in 2014, whether it was Elise Stefanik's northern NY district, ME's 2nd district with Poliqun, or Iowa's 1st district. That was a sign, even as Republicans still did way better in the college-educated suburban districts in 2014. But 2016 really was a dramatic shift in the political coalitions that not a lot of people could predict the extent of.


You have brought up a lot of great points.  It definitely does seem that 2014 was a real turning point politically and culturally.  Just a few observations about that year that I want to ad.

1. With the rise of ISIS and the surge of minors crossing the Rio Grande that summer, Obama and the Democrats came across being negligent and in denial about those situations. In 2016, Trump's two biggest issues were Immigration and Terrorism. While a lot of voters support ending endless wars, when those countries collapse (or nearly do) without our presence, public opinion really shifts.  I can remember people not wanting us to intervene in Syria in 2013 only become major hawks on ISIS two years later.


2. Hillary had her book tour, which did not go well and demonstrated that she had a lot of work to do to be a viable candidate for the Presidency.  Also Bill Clinton hit the campaign trail for a lot of Democrats in 2014 and had little effect on preventing the loses that the Democrats suffered that year.


3.  I remember observing a lot of Republicans and Conservatives stating that they felt that the Republican party was not representing them and that they were allowing Obama to do what ever he wanted.  While I have issues with this belief, I do believe that 2014 was year when the disconnect between the Republican Party and its voters reached a critical mass.



I recently was watching Fox 2014 coverage and Pat Caddell in the end says he believes the Republican party is ready to have an insurgent seize control of the party like it has never been done before. Then he says that person has to be someone who is willing to attack the establishment of the party hard. Here's the clip of that


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WPADEM
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« Reply #11 on: January 16, 2022, 03:27:59 PM »

In response to Old School Republican

I can remember getting this feeling in the summer of 2014 that something big was going to happen in 2016, that the political environment was and voter anger was to the point where something that no would could anticipate was going to occur.  I wasn't sure what, but I could sense something was coming.
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laddicus finch
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« Reply #12 on: January 16, 2022, 03:50:41 PM »

Many Obama-Trump voters in, especially in the upper midwest, might better be described as "Bush-Obama-Trump" voters. Clearly Trump won enough Gore/Kerry voters to swing the states he did, but it should be noted that Gore and Kerry only narrowly won the blue midwestern states (except for Illinois which is unique for obvious reasons). In states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa, Pennsylvania, and even Indiana in '08, Obama won a large number of conservative-inclined voters who wanted to punish the GOP in 2008, and kept enough of them in 2012, probably because Romney did little to counter his image of an out-of-touch elite.

As for the Gore/Kerry-Obama-Trump voters, as much as the Democrats lost them, Trump won them. In the Bush era, cultural conservatism was very tied to religiosity. Wisconsin, for example, has a lower-than-average rate of weekly church attendance and people identifying as evangelical. So it's likely that there was a certain percentage of lapsed catholics and mainline protestants, who weren't that religious, and found the GOP's religious focus off-putting - but the same people had more conservative views on things like immigration and globalism/-ization, and that's what Trump's conservatism emphasized more of. Basically, Trump appealed more to these naturally conservative people who didn't identify with earlier iterations with the GOP, but did with Trump.
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Computer89
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« Reply #13 on: January 16, 2022, 04:48:49 PM »

In response to Old School Republican

I can remember getting this feeling in the summer of 2014 that something big was going to happen in 2016, that the political environment was and voter anger was to the point where something that no would could anticipate was going to occur.  I wasn't sure what, but I could sense something was coming.

It seems like Ferguson, the refugee/border crises in 2014 were foreshadowing moments to the rise of Trumpism as Prop 13 in 1978 was a clear foreshowing moment to Conservative Republican Landslide of 1980(just not Reagan but a Republican Senate as well) and the destruction of the Keynesian Consensus.




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DS0816
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« Reply #14 on: February 08, 2022, 06:44:14 PM »

The working class.

Numerous states realigned, after having voted for Bill Clinton with his two wins during the 1990s, and have not come back to the Democrats.

Following the next Democratic-affiliated U.S. president, Barack Obama, more states followed.

After the 1990s, Clinton’s home state Arkansas and West Virginia, as well as Louisiana and former bellwether states Missouri, Tennessee, and Kentucky had had enough of the Democratic Party.

After 2012, and with much of Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign recognizing it and running it on, the Democrats have since lost Florida, Iowa, Ohio, and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District.

The Democrats lost these much in part because the citizens from those states and congressional district came to the realization that the Democrats are not for them—and the Democrats are not a political party for the working people.
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Vosem
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« Reply #15 on: February 08, 2022, 08:10:59 PM »

Had already happened by the time of the 2014 midterm, but I'm not sure that there's much to add apart from that.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #16 on: February 08, 2022, 08:36:10 PM »
« Edited: February 08, 2022, 08:45:55 PM by darklordoftech »

The murder of Trayvon Martin, probably, specifically when Obama said that if had a son he'd look like Trayvon.

A lot of people were fine voting for a black president, but not a Black president.

Id say Ferguson was really when they lost that voter

Hey, don't blame this all on me! /s

Obama won those same voters literally the year Trayvon Martin happened
Dick Morris predicted that Obama would lose because he said that Trayvon Martin could have been his son. When Morris’s prediction proved to be wrong, people thought that racial tensions were a thing of the past.

While a lot of voters support ending endless wars, when those countries collapse (or nearly do) without our presence, public opinion really shifts.  I can remember people not wanting us to intervene in Syria in 2013 only become major hawks on ISIS two years later.
Rand Paul was a rising star in the GOP before the rise of ISIS.
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #17 on: February 08, 2022, 08:49:04 PM »
« Edited: February 08, 2022, 09:04:52 PM by Adjective-Statism »

2014 was definitely the watershed year. The immigration crisis that year was where the energy for Trump's campaign came from, and the alt-right's rallying cry was Gamergate. In geopolitics, there was the Russian annexation of Crimea, ISIS, and the Cuban Thaw. Not to mention the Ferguson protests and the Flint water crisis. Oh, and then there was the domestic surveillance stuff we all disturbingly stopped talking about because Trump conveniently showed up to discredit the word "populism".

2016 has to be understood both as a "lucky break" for Republicans- because Trump came out of nowhere and had broader appeal than the usual Republican- and deterministically, as a result of an inadequate conclusion to the Great Recession or the War on Terror on Obama's part and a natural rebound for Republicans from the Farm Crisis lows in the Midwest. A grassroots conservative was inevitable but their win wasn't.
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Vice President Christian Man
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« Reply #18 on: February 08, 2022, 09:35:40 PM »

I'd say the majority were gone when Trump was the nominee and brought up issues such as tariffs and infrastructure. Prior to that, I think Ferguson was a major turning point for some.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #19 on: February 09, 2022, 11:53:25 AM »

Obviously 2014
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Person Man
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« Reply #20 on: February 09, 2022, 02:43:55 PM »

Had already happened by the time of the 2014 midterm, but I'm not sure that there's much to add apart from that.

If we're talking about Democrats losing these voters rather than Republicans winning them, I think it happened within the first year or two of Obama's presidency.

The rapid collapse of his approval and the widespread loss of interest in politics that occurred in that period doesn't get enough attention in these discussions. The brutal realities of the post-recession economy forced a rapid realization in many that Obama had taken the adage about "campaigning in poetry and governing in prose" and escalated it to the point of campaigning in creative fiction.

The political media mostly ignored this in favor of the narrative that millions of Americans who voted for Obama (or at least gave him enough of a chance to express approval in in the first months of his presidency) had become white supremacists in a matter of months.

Never mind that we were stuck in the worst economy in decades, never mind that the health care plan that Obama signed bore little resemblance to what he had campaigned on, never mind that many of the voters in question had moved on from viewing the War in Iraq (for which Obama took no blame) as the leading proof of bipartisan corruption and incompetence to viewing the Wall Street bailouts (for which Obama took as much blame as Bush, in the eyes of many) as the leading proof of bipartisan corruption and incompetence.

And those that watered down his agenda got their asses kicked anyways.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #21 on: February 09, 2022, 06:06:02 PM »

They lost them at many various points. The important question now is how many of them can be returned to the Democratic fold post-Trump, how they might be bought back, and if it's worth it.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #22 on: February 10, 2022, 06:28:01 PM »

They lost them at many various points. The important question now is how many of them can be returned to the Democratic fold post-Trump, how they might be bought back, and if it's worth it.

Those voters won’t return to fold unless Democrats basically give up on racial justice and equality issues and become economic populists.
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #23 on: February 10, 2022, 09:37:42 PM »

They lost them at many various points. The important question now is how many of them can be returned to the Democratic fold post-Trump, how they might be bought back, and if it's worth it.

Those voters won’t return to fold unless Democrats basically give up on racial justice and equality issues and become economic populists.

They could definitely abstain if the Republican nominee is declared a "RINO".
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Joe McCarthy Was Right
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« Reply #24 on: February 10, 2022, 09:56:06 PM »

I don't totally agree with people saying 2014. Trump was behind in Iowa for a long time in 2016.
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