When did the Democrats lose the Obama - Trump Voters?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
January 25, 2022, 02:46:42 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  When did the Democrats lose the Obama - Trump Voters?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: When did the Democrats lose the Obama - Trump Voters?  (Read 436 times)
WPADEM
Rookie
**
Posts: 17
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: January 13, 2022, 07:43:54 PM »

Specifically those who voted for Barack Obama in 2012 only to swing towards Donald Trump in 2016.
Logged
Suburbia
bronz4141
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,857
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: January 13, 2022, 09:55:13 PM »

Probably in mid-2016 when the Dallas lunatic killed 5 officers after the Alton Sterling and Philando Castile police murders.

This country still holds law enforcement in very high regard, Latino voters as well.

Logged
Old School Republican
Computer89
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,985


Political Matrix
E: 3.23, S: 0.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: January 14, 2022, 12:18:47 AM »

Id say Ferguson was really when they lost that voter
Logged
Ferguson97
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,079
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: January 14, 2022, 12:35:19 AM »

The murder of Trayvon Martin, probably, specifically when Obama said that if had a son he'd look like Trayvon.

A lot of people were fine voting for a black president, but not a Black president.

Id say Ferguson was really when they lost that voter

Hey, don't blame this all on me! /s
Logged
Old School Republican
Computer89
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,985


Political Matrix
E: 3.23, S: 0.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: January 14, 2022, 12:36:44 AM »

The murder of Trayvon Martin, probably, specifically when Obama said that if had a son he'd look like Trayvon.

A lot of people were fine voting for a black president, but not a Black president.

Id say Ferguson was really when they lost that voter

Hey, don't blame this all on me! /s

Obama won those same voters literally the year Trayvon Martin happened
Logged
TML
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,103


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: January 14, 2022, 02:14:33 AM »
« Edited: January 14, 2022, 05:23:53 PM by TML »

It didn't happen overnight. Back when Obama ran, he promised economic help toward many working-class people. Once in office, however, he didn't actually deliver as much economic help as he had promised (and he clearly could have done more than he actually did, even if he wasn't going to be able to do every single thing he promised), and when Trump came along, he also promised economic help toward working-class people, while Hillary largely campaigned on maintaining the status quo. Those things were the final things that flipped these voters.
Logged
Ferguson97
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,079
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: January 14, 2022, 12:06:59 PM »

The murder of Trayvon Martin, probably, specifically when Obama said that if had a son he'd look like Trayvon.

A lot of people were fine voting for a black president, but not a Black president.

Id say Ferguson was really when they lost that voter

Hey, don't blame this all on me! /s

Obama won those same voters literally the year Trayvon Martin happened

Oh I misremembered when it happened then, I could've sworn it was 2013.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,459
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: January 14, 2022, 12:53:12 PM »

I'd say it was around 2014/2015, when there was a huge inordinate amount of focus on police brutality, and when "wokeism" started to become the prevailing cultural ideology on the left, promoted by none other than Obama himself. He relentlessly promoted the idea that women were earning 70 cents on the dollar of every man (not true when controlled) and that black men are being discriminated against by police (true, but divisive). Remember that Obama also promoted the TPP that even most of his party was opposed to, and Hillary was waffly on. That probably had an effect on this demographic that was unfavorable toward international trade deals. People forget but Obama's approval throughout most of his 2nd term was pretty awful, only in 2016 did it imrpove, probably because most of the political discussion was off of him and on Trump and Hillary. A lot of working class areas were being won by Republicans in 2014, whether it was Elise Stefanik's northern NY district, ME's 2nd district with Poliqun, or Iowa's 1st district. That was a sign, even as Republicans still did way better in the college-educated suburban districts in 2014. But 2016 really was a dramatic shift in the political coalitions that not a lot of people could predict the extent of.
Logged
WPADEM
Rookie
**
Posts: 17
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: January 16, 2022, 11:36:21 AM »

I'd say it was around 2014/2015, when there was a huge inordinate amount of focus on police brutality, and when "wokeism" started to become the prevailing cultural ideology on the left, promoted by none other than Obama himself. He relentlessly promoted the idea that women were earning 70 cents on the dollar of every man (not true when controlled) and that black men are being discriminated against by police (true, but divisive). Remember that Obama also promoted the TPP that even most of his party was opposed to, and Hillary was waffly on. That probably had an effect on this demographic that was unfavorable toward international trade deals. People forget but Obama's approval throughout most of his 2nd term was pretty awful, only in 2016 did it imrpove, probably because most of the political discussion was off of him and on Trump and Hillary. A lot of working class areas were being won by Republicans in 2014, whether it was Elise Stefanik's northern NY district, ME's 2nd district with Poliqun, or Iowa's 1st district. That was a sign, even as Republicans still did way better in the college-educated suburban districts in 2014. But 2016 really was a dramatic shift in the political coalitions that not a lot of people could predict the extent of.


You have brought up a lot of great points.  It definitely does seem that 2014 was a real turning point politically and culturally.  Just a few observations about that year that I want to ad.

1. With the rise of ISIS and the surge of minors crossing the Rio Grande that summer, Obama and the Democrats came across being negligent and in denial about those situations. In 2016, Trump's two biggest issues were Immigration and Terrorism. While a lot of voters support ending endless wars, when those countries collapse (or nearly do) without our presence, public opinion really shifts.  I can remember people not wanting us to intervene in Syria in 2013 only become major hawks on ISIS two years later.


2. Hillary had her book tour, which did not go well and demonstrated that she had a lot of work to do to be a viable candidate for the Presidency.  Also Bill Clinton hit the campaign trail for a lot of Democrats in 2014 and had little effect on preventing the loses that the Democrats suffered that year.


3.  I remember observing a lot of Republicans and Conservatives stating that they felt that the Republican party was not representing them and that they were allowing Obama to do what ever he wanted.  While I have issues with this belief, I do believe that 2014 was year when the disconnect between the Republican Party and its voters reached a critical mass.
Logged
WPADEM
Rookie
**
Posts: 17
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: January 16, 2022, 11:37:31 AM »

It didn't happen overnight. Back when Obama ran, he promised economic help toward many working-class people. Once in office, however, he didn't actually deliver as much economic help as he had promised (and he clearly could have done more than he actually did, even if he wasn't going to be able to do every single thing he promised), and when Trump came along, he also promised economic help toward working-class people, while Hillary largely campaigned on maintaining the status quo. Those things were the final things that flipped these voters.


Despite my earlier reply to ElectionsGuy, this I agree with as well.
Logged
Old School Republican
Computer89
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,985


Political Matrix
E: 3.23, S: 0.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: January 16, 2022, 02:48:13 PM »

I'd say it was around 2014/2015, when there was a huge inordinate amount of focus on police brutality, and when "wokeism" started to become the prevailing cultural ideology on the left, promoted by none other than Obama himself. He relentlessly promoted the idea that women were earning 70 cents on the dollar of every man (not true when controlled) and that black men are being discriminated against by police (true, but divisive). Remember that Obama also promoted the TPP that even most of his party was opposed to, and Hillary was waffly on. That probably had an effect on this demographic that was unfavorable toward international trade deals. People forget but Obama's approval throughout most of his 2nd term was pretty awful, only in 2016 did it imrpove, probably because most of the political discussion was off of him and on Trump and Hillary. A lot of working class areas were being won by Republicans in 2014, whether it was Elise Stefanik's northern NY district, ME's 2nd district with Poliqun, or Iowa's 1st district. That was a sign, even as Republicans still did way better in the college-educated suburban districts in 2014. But 2016 really was a dramatic shift in the political coalitions that not a lot of people could predict the extent of.


You have brought up a lot of great points.  It definitely does seem that 2014 was a real turning point politically and culturally.  Just a few observations about that year that I want to ad.

1. With the rise of ISIS and the surge of minors crossing the Rio Grande that summer, Obama and the Democrats came across being negligent and in denial about those situations. In 2016, Trump's two biggest issues were Immigration and Terrorism. While a lot of voters support ending endless wars, when those countries collapse (or nearly do) without our presence, public opinion really shifts.  I can remember people not wanting us to intervene in Syria in 2013 only become major hawks on ISIS two years later.


2. Hillary had her book tour, which did not go well and demonstrated that she had a lot of work to do to be a viable candidate for the Presidency.  Also Bill Clinton hit the campaign trail for a lot of Democrats in 2014 and had little effect on preventing the loses that the Democrats suffered that year.


3.  I remember observing a lot of Republicans and Conservatives stating that they felt that the Republican party was not representing them and that they were allowing Obama to do what ever he wanted.  While I have issues with this belief, I do believe that 2014 was year when the disconnect between the Republican Party and its voters reached a critical mass.



I recently was watching Fox 2014 coverage and Pat Caddell in the end says he believes the Republican party is ready to have an insurgent seize control of the party like it has never been done before. Then he says that person has to be someone who is willing to attack the establishment of the party hard. Here's the clip of that


Logged
WPADEM
Rookie
**
Posts: 17
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: January 16, 2022, 03:27:59 PM »

In response to Old School Republican

I can remember getting this feeling in the summer of 2014 that something big was going to happen in 2016, that the political environment was and voter anger was to the point where something that no would could anticipate was going to occur.  I wasn't sure what, but I could sense something was coming.
Logged
laddicus finch
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 792


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: January 16, 2022, 03:50:41 PM »

Many Obama-Trump voters in, especially in the upper midwest, might better be described as "Bush-Obama-Trump" voters. Clearly Trump won enough Gore/Kerry voters to swing the states he did, but it should be noted that Gore and Kerry only narrowly won the blue midwestern states (except for Illinois which is unique for obvious reasons). In states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa, Pennsylvania, and even Indiana in '08, Obama won a large number of conservative-inclined voters who wanted to punish the GOP in 2008, and kept enough of them in 2012, probably because Romney did little to counter his image of an out-of-touch elite.

As for the Gore/Kerry-Obama-Trump voters, as much as the Democrats lost them, Trump won them. In the Bush era, cultural conservatism was very tied to religiosity. Wisconsin, for example, has a lower-than-average rate of weekly church attendance and people identifying as evangelical. So it's likely that there was a certain percentage of lapsed catholics and mainline protestants, who weren't that religious, and found the GOP's religious focus off-putting - but the same people had more conservative views on things like immigration and globalism/-ization, and that's what Trump's conservatism emphasized more of. Basically, Trump appealed more to these naturally conservative people who didn't identify with earlier iterations with the GOP, but did with Trump.
Logged
Old School Republican
Computer89
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,985


Political Matrix
E: 3.23, S: 0.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: January 16, 2022, 04:48:49 PM »

In response to Old School Republican

I can remember getting this feeling in the summer of 2014 that something big was going to happen in 2016, that the political environment was and voter anger was to the point where something that no would could anticipate was going to occur.  I wasn't sure what, but I could sense something was coming.

It seems like Ferguson, the refugee/border crises in 2014 were foreshadowing moments to the rise of Trumpism as Prop 13 in 1978 was a clear foreshowing moment to Conservative Republican Landslide of 1980(just not Reagan but a Republican Senate as well) and the destruction of the Keynesian Consensus.




Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.062 seconds with 13 queries.