When did the Democrats lose the Obama - Trump Voters?

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

I'd say it was around 2014/2015, when there was a huge inordinate amount of focus on police brutality, and when "wokeism" started to become the prevailing cultural ideology on the left, promoted by none other than Obama himself. He relentlessly promoted the idea that women were earning 70 cents on the dollar of every man (not true when controlled) and that black men are being discriminated against by police (true, but divisive). Remember that Obama also promoted the TPP that even most of his party was opposed to, and Hillary was waffly on. That probably had an effect on this demographic that was unfavorable toward international trade deals. People forget but Obama's approval throughout most of his 2nd term was pretty awful, only in 2016 did it imrpove, probably because most of the political discussion was off of him and on Trump and Hillary. A lot of working class areas were being won by Republicans in 2014, whether it was Elise Stefanik's northern NY district, ME's 2nd district with Poliqun, or Iowa's 1st district. That was a sign, even as Republicans still did way better in the college-educated suburban districts in 2014. But 2016 really was a dramatic shift in the political coalitions that not a lot of people could predict the extent of.

All this is true but even so I don't think that they would have broken from the Democrats for just any Republican. A hardcore social conservative like Ted Cruz would IMO have still been even more of a turnoff for this demographic then wokeism. It took Trump himself combined with Hillary's ineptitude to bring the shift about.

[OSR stands with Israel]

They lost them at many various points. The important question now is how many of them can be returned to the Democratic fold post-Trump, how they might be bought back, and if it's worth it.

The first question Id have about those voters is how many were Bush-Obama voters cause if that’s the case then it would show Obama was more the exception then the rule when it came to those voters .

[deluxedriver]

When Hilary started talking about continuing the status quo of Obama and Trump was being increasingly populist and appealing to the farmers and WWC.

[dw93]

Varying points. I think there were probably about as many Obama-Romney-Trump voters as there were Obama-Obama-Trump voters.

[Tekken_Guy]

When did Democrats lose the Obama-Trump voters?

[pbrower2a]

When did Democrats lose the Obama-Trump voters?

What in tarnation do you mean?

...the Eisenhower-Obama overlay, and it is remarkable:

When all is said and done, I think that the Obama and Eisenhower Presidencies are going to look like good analogues. Both Presidents are chilly rationalists. Both are practically scandal-free administrations. Both started with a troublesome war that both found their way out of. Neither did much to 'grow' the strength of their Parties in either House of Congress. To compare ISIS to Fidel Castro is completely unfair to Fidel Castro, a gentleman by contrast to ISIS.

The definitive moderate Republican may have been Dwight Eisenhower, and I have heard plenty of Democrats praise the Eisenhower Presidency. He went along with Supreme Court rulings that outlawed segregationist practices, stayed clear of the McCarthy bandwagon, and let McCarthy implode.

 
gray -- did not vote in 1952 or 1956
white -- Eisenhower twice, Obama twice
deep blue -- Republican all four elections
light blue -- Republican all but 2012 (I assume that greater Omaha went for Ike twice)
light green -- Eisenhower once, Stevenson once, Obama never
dark green -- Stevenson twice, Obama never
pink -- Stevenson twice, Obama once

No state voted Democratic all four times, so no state is in deep red.

You can ignore the counts of electoral votes which apply to 2008.

The problem for Republicans:

This map is not as neat as that of the original Eisenhower-Obama overlay.

Electoral votes can be ignored, as those are for 2008.   

 
gray -- did not vote in 1952 or 1956
white -- Eisenhower twice, Obama twice, Biden 2020
red -- Eisenhower twice, Obama twice, Trump 2020
pink -- Stevenson twice, Obama once, Trump 2020
light orange -- Eisenhower twice, Obama never, Biden 2020
orange -- Stevenson twice, Obama never, Biden 2020
deep blue -- Republican all five elections
light blue -- Republican all but 2012 (I assume that greater Omaha went for Ike twice)
light green -- Eisenhower once, Stevenson once, Obama never
dark green -- Stevenson twice, Obama never, Trump 2020
pink -- Stevenson twice, Obama once, Trump 2020

No state voted Democratic all four times, so no state is in deep red.

[Vice President Christian Man]

When Trump went down the escalator, although the BLM protests in 2014 may have already cost a few, particularly in Missouri.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Probably at different points. As weird as it seems now a lot or even most of those Obama/Trump voters actually liked Obama- if you have a 57% approval rating on election day that's a given. So if Obama or Biden was the nominee in 2016 you'd get a solid chunk.

Hillary is so unbelievably unpopular that some of the loss could just be her. Trump probably takes up the rest.

[Ferguson97]

Sometime during the rise of BLM.

[President Johnson]

There's already a thread a page back. Several good answers provided. These I found particulary good:

It didn't happen overnight. Back when Obama ran, he promised economic help toward many working-class people. Once in office, however, he didn't actually deliver as much economic help as he had promised (and he clearly could have done more than he actually did, even if he wasn't going to be able to do every single thing he promised), and when Trump came along, he also promised economic help toward working-class people, while Hillary largely campaigned on maintaining the status quo. Those things were the final things that flipped these voters.

I'd say it was around 2014/2015, when there was a huge inordinate amount of focus on police brutality, and when "wokeism" started to become the prevailing cultural ideology on the left, promoted by none other than Obama himself. He relentlessly promoted the idea that women were earning 70 cents on the dollar of every man (not true when controlled) and that black men are being discriminated against by police (true, but divisive). Remember that Obama also promoted the TPP that even most of his party was opposed to, and Hillary was waffly on. That probably had an effect on this demographic that was unfavorable toward international trade deals. People forget but Obama's approval throughout most of his 2nd term was pretty awful, only in 2016 did it imrpove, probably because most of the political discussion was off of him and on Trump and Hillary. A lot of working class areas were being won by Republicans in 2014, whether it was Elise Stefanik's northern NY district, ME's 2nd district with Poliqun, or Iowa's 1st district. That was a sign, even as Republicans still did way better in the college-educated suburban districts in 2014. But 2016 really was a dramatic shift in the political coalitions that not a lot of people could predict the extent of.

Related to this question is also this analysis by OSR, that I found convincing:

In many ways it is Barack Obama which is ironic given how different they are personality wise but actually thinks about it .

- Both rose out of seemingly nowhere to defeat major establishment candidates on both sides of the isle

- Both rose out of major dissatisfaction of the neoliberal consensus and on an sentiment that the US should be more non interventionist and focus on America first

- Both had strong cult of personalities that enabled them to have a very enthusiastic base of support .

- Both relied heavily on non propensity voters which led them to outperform polling expectations

- Both had extremely efficient electoral coalitions that had the tipping point states always far more favorable to them then the national popular vote

- Both of them resulted in a previously loyal voters of their party leaving while bringing  in many loyal voters from the other party .


In fact I think without COVID 2020 would resemble 2012 and by 2024 Trump would have left the GOP decimated down ballot wise the same way Obama left the Democrats in 2016.

[Suburbia]

Sometime during the rise of BLM.

This. These were white voters who felt good electing a Black man in 2008 and 2012, they wanted to show their children that they were racially tolerant and colorblind. That they are not their grandparents or great-grandparents. A lot of people voted for Obama because they truly wanted a post-racial America. Truly, truly. They thought that would be the uniting force of the 2000s after the post-9/11 unity cratered around 2003-05.

Obama and BLM were created and BLM/woke people didn't do any favors saying "white man bad, white man evil should die out".

That is what turned them to Trump. A lot of them are not political either.

[Ferguson97]

Sometime during the rise of BLM.

This. These were white voters who felt good electing a Black man in 2008 and 2012, they wanted to show their children that they were racially tolerant and colorblind. That they are not their grandparents or great-grandparents. A lot of people voted for Obama because they truly wanted a post-racial America. Truly, truly. They thought that would be the uniting force of the 2000s after the post-9/11 unity cratered around 2003-05.

Obama and BLM were created and BLM/woke people didn't do any favors saying "white man bad, white man evil should die out".

That is what turned them to Trump. A lot of them are not political either.

This first paragraph is an excellent analysis.