When did Republicans lose the McCain-Obama voters?

[Yupper]

Any ideas?

[Ferguson97]

With the rise of the tea party movement perhaps? McCain was a pretty moderate guy, and they may have just realized that Obama wasn't a Kenyan socialist Muslim like Fox News insists.

[darklordoftech]

When they nominated Mr. Bain Capital himself.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

McCain-Obama voters were disproportionately Hispanic or Asian, so I would think when the GOP became more anti-immigration during Obama’s first term.

[Ferguson97]

McCain-Obama voters were disproportionately Hispanic or Asian

Source on this? That's interesting.

[Tekken_Guy]

Either when Hurricane Sandy hit or Palin wasn’t on the ticket.

[Ferguson97]

Either when Hurricane Sandy hit or Palin wasn’t on the ticket.

Hurricane Sandy would be awfully late for them to have lost Obama, it was like a week before the election.

[Agonized-Statism]

In Staten Island, it was probably Romney's off-putting elitist candidacy in general but also the Hurricane Sandy response. In Miami-Dade, it was the culmination of a gradual post-Cold War realignment of Cuban-Americans to the rightward Democrats (which reversed in a big way after 2012 of course- Cuban Thaw, new culture wars, revived red-baiting from populist Republicans and then liberals, the rise of progressive Democrats, and Venezuelan immigrants).

[OSR stands with Israel]

McCain-Obama voters were disproportionately Hispanic or Asian

Source on this? That's interesting.

Obama won 71% of the Hispanic vote in 2012 vs 67% in 2008. Obama in 2012 also did better than any Dem has since 1964 in places like Lackawanna County, and raw % wise did better in Mahoning County than any Democrat since 1964

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Either when Hurricane Sandy hit or Palin wasn’t on the ticket.

Hurricane Sandy would be awfully late for them to have lost Obama, it was like a week before the election.

Hurricane Sandy did cause a lot of late movement towards Obama in 2012.  Realistically, a world without Sandy probably only sees Florida flip, but Obama got a lot of really favorable press from it, including bipartisan cooperation with Chris Christie.  While these voters were disproportionately in the Northeast, without Hurricane Sandy, I suspect that the PV would have been closer than 2016 (though Obama probably wins it anyway). 

Remember, while Obama was always a clear favorite in the EC, a lot of people actually thought Romney had a great chance at the PV a couple weeks before the election.  I know how crazy that split sounds today.

*As an aside, who remembers the ironic with hindsight, now-deleted Trump tweet complaining about the idea that Romney would win the PV but lose the election?

[kwabbit]

McCain-Obama voters were disproportionately Hispanic or Asian

Source on this? That's interesting.

Election results. Obama improved in a lot of Hispanic areas like South FL, TX, etc. He also improved in WWC urban cores, but perhaps not their suburbs. He had strong performances in places like Upstate NY, NE OH, NE PA, but suffered in the surrounding rural areas.

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

In Staten Island, it was probably Romney's off-putting elitist candidacy in general but also the Hurricane Sandy response. In Miami-Dade, it was the culmination of a gradual post-Cold War realignment of Cuban-Americans to the rightward Democrats (which reversed in a big way after 2012 of course- Cuban Thaw, new culture wars, revived red-baiting from populist Republicans and then liberals, the rise of progressive Democrats, and Venezuelan immigrants).

Obama getting Osama was a big factor in Staten Island as well in all likelihood.

[Alben Barkley]

*As an aside, who remembers the ironic with hindsight, now-deleted Trump tweet complaining about the idea that Romney would win the PV but lose the election?

I certainly do. I also remember him claiming after 2016 that he stuck by his position that the EC needs to be replaced with the NPV. Of course he also claimed he really won it but Hillary bused in millions of illegals to vote for her.