Lean Sinema, will probably be Likely if not Safe Sinema by election day. While Sinema might have lost if the election had been held this week, Democrats aren’t known for foolishly and erratically throwing away (or, in this case, putting in play) easily winnable Senate seats (and therefore throwing away any shot they might otherwise have had at controlling the Senate). It’s a choice between "Do we renomate a Senator who votes 95% of the time with us?" or "Do we risk nominating someone who could easily lose to a Republican who will vote 5% of the time with us?", and there hasn’t been a single Senate race in recent memory in which the latter won out over the former in a Democratic primary. The takes that Sinema wouldn’t substantially outperform Generic D in a GE are also absurd and mostly coming from outraged partisans who want the general electorate to think/prioritize the same things that they do and who deliberately downplay the willingness of Republicans to support 'moderate'/'authentic' Democrats like Manchin, Tester, Golden, Kander, etc. It’s unlikely the NRSC will even prioritize AZ-SEN 2024 if Sinema wins the D primary (they genuinely view her as a moderate Democrat who’s not a reliable vote for the D caucus).
You usually have decent takes but this one ain’t it. You have no sense of the average Dem’s rage toward her. This isn’t your usual D primary involving an incumbent.
This is much more akin to GOP primaries.
There also is no conservative African American base here that defaults to the whims of the party elite and responds to electability messaging. White educated libs and Natives/Hispanics.
Poll
