Rate a Kyrsten Sinema vs. Ruben Gallego primary
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January 20, 2022, 09:25:58 AM

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  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  Rate a Kyrsten Sinema vs. Ruben Gallego primary
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Poll
Question: Rate a Sinema vs. Gallego primary
#1
Safe Sinema
 
#2
Likely Sinema
 
#3
Lean Sinema
 
#4
Toss-Up/Tilt Sinema
 
#5
Toss-Up/Tilt Gallego
 
#6
Lean Gallego
 
#7
Likely Gallego
 
#8
Safe Gallego
 
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Total Voters: 92

Author Topic: Rate a Kyrsten Sinema vs. Ruben Gallego primary  (Read 750 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: January 13, 2022, 04:02:26 PM »

Rate a primary between Kyrsten Sinema and Ruben Gallego.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1 on: January 13, 2022, 04:12:49 PM »

Likely Gallego at this point, bordering safe.

Sinema has like a 17% approval rating among Democrats in the latest poll. You're not going to win a primary with that, not even an open primary. And she's apparently doing nothing to change it.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #2 on: January 13, 2022, 04:22:34 PM »

Tossup.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #3 on: January 13, 2022, 04:56:24 PM »

Lean Gallego.

I know the race is 2 years away, and people have short memories... but it's going to be REALLY hard for Sinema to get rid of the persona she's set for herself, and she seems to have no interest in doing so either.
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The Democratic Party Left Me
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« Reply #4 on: January 13, 2022, 06:28:19 PM »

Safe Gallego
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Everyone Needs Jesus Christ
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« Reply #5 on: January 13, 2022, 06:32:25 PM »

Likely Gallego and if she loses similar to Murkowski losing in 2010 (although I have my disagreements with Murkowski), she should run as a write-in or independent. Also this as well as the 2010 senate race in Alaska are great arguments for abolishing partisan primaries.,
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АndriуValeriovych
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« Reply #6 on: January 13, 2022, 06:52:45 PM »

Likely Gallego at this point, I think it would Safe Gallego by 2024
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #7 on: January 13, 2022, 07:34:08 PM »

Lean/Likely Gallego at this point in time. I think it's becoming increasingly likely that Kyrsten Sinema will be a one-term Senator.
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xavier110
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« Reply #8 on: January 13, 2022, 09:58:39 PM »

I voted Likely Gallego. Iíll be happy to vote for himÖ
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mtvoter
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« Reply #9 on: January 14, 2022, 01:59:04 AM »

Likely Gallego at the moment.

Titanium Gallego if Mark Kelly survives 2022.
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ERM64man
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« Reply #10 on: January 14, 2022, 02:18:17 AM »

Sinema likely loses.
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SOCIALIST MR BAKARI SELLERS
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« Reply #11 on: January 14, 2022, 03:35:29 AM »

Gallego said many times already on MSNBC that he has no plans to challenge Sinema he wants the Gov in 26 of Hobbs loses, because Kelly and Sinema are gonna be there for a long time

We have a variety in our party just like Rs supported Collins, Specter and Olympia Snowe whom backed Obamacare,that's why Obama didn't get rid of Filibuster because the Rs backed Obamacare and The Stimulus that's why Collins won easily in 14/20 but since she is Filibustering Voting Rights she won't win in 26
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Xing
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« Reply #12 on: January 14, 2022, 12:25:55 PM »

Tilt Gallego. It's weird how this forum seems to massively underestimate Sinema in the primary while simultaneously massively overestimating her in the GE. A lot can happen in two years, and there are plenty of wealthy donors who would move heaven and earth to save Sinema against "radical leftist socialist" Gallego. They would probably use "electability" as a smoke screen for their true intentions, which many voters would predictably fall for, as they have time and time again. There might be enough bitterness for her to lose, but no one should be counting her out, nor assuming that hoards of Republicans are going to prefer someone who occasionally trolls the Democrats over a solid Republican vote. She would be, at best, a modest favorite in a general election (as would Gallego), and could easily lose against a Republican if it's a good year for them.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #13 on: January 14, 2022, 12:58:47 PM »

Lean Sinema, will probably be Likely if not Safe Sinema by election day. While Sinema might have lost if the election had been held this week, Democrats arenít known for foolishly and erratically throwing away (or, in this case, putting in play) easily winnable Senate seats (and therefore throwing away any shot they might otherwise have had at controlling the Senate). Itís a choice between "Do we renomate a Senator who votes 95% of the time with us?" or "Do we risk nominating someone who could easily lose to a Republican who will vote 5% of the time with us?", and there hasnít been a single Senate race in recent memory in which the latter won out over the former in a Democratic primary. The takes that Sinema wouldnít substantially outperform Generic D in a GE are also absurd and mostly coming from outraged partisans who want the general electorate to think/prioritize the same things that they do and who deliberately downplay the willingness of Republicans to support 'moderate'/'authentic' Democrats like Manchin, Tester, Golden, Kander, etc. Itís unlikely the NRSC will even prioritize AZ-SEN 2024 if Sinema wins the D primary (they genuinely view her as a moderate Democrat whoís not a reliable vote for the D caucus).
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« Reply #14 on: January 14, 2022, 01:33:31 PM »

Giffords!  #dumpsinema
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Badger
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« Reply #15 on: January 14, 2022, 06:33:48 PM »

still wondering if Greg Stanton might get in. Though I suspect Arizona democrats are going to be somewhat justifiably cautious about anyone is out anyone remotely tending towards moderate after getting burned by Sinema,  Even though Stanton is in fact quite progressive.
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David Hume
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« Reply #16 on: January 14, 2022, 11:24:46 PM »

Sinema may switch to indy before the primary, if polls are bad for her. She may win as indy in a three way race.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #17 on: January 15, 2022, 09:57:31 AM »

Call me crazy but I kind of think she would change her tune if Manchin was on board. Whatís the point of putting herself in the more ďpartisanĒ camp if it wouldnít achieve the stated goal anyway?

So Iíd probably choose Sinema because with her weíre guaranteed to hold the seat for a very long time. I hate to say that because of her smug attitude but sometimes you have to think practically

I think the race would be a true tossup.
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ERM64man
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« Reply #18 on: January 15, 2022, 12:54:47 PM »

Call me crazy but I kind of think she would change her tune if Manchin was on board. Whatís the point of putting herself in the more ďpartisanĒ camp if it wouldnít achieve the stated goal anyway?

So Iíd probably choose Sinema because with her weíre guaranteed to hold the seat for a very long time. I hate to say that because of her smug attitude but sometimes you have to think practically

I think the race would be a true tossup.
No. even if Manchin ends up wanting to weaken or end the filibuster, Sinema still wonít despite being from a much bluer state than West Virginia.
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xavier110
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« Reply #19 on: January 15, 2022, 02:44:36 PM »
« Edited: January 15, 2022, 02:47:59 PM by xavier110 »

Lean Sinema, will probably be Likely if not Safe Sinema by election day. While Sinema might have lost if the election had been held this week, Democrats arenít known for foolishly and erratically throwing away (or, in this case, putting in play) easily winnable Senate seats (and therefore throwing away any shot they might otherwise have had at controlling the Senate). Itís a choice between "Do we renomate a Senator who votes 95% of the time with us?" or "Do we risk nominating someone who could easily lose to a Republican who will vote 5% of the time with us?", and there hasnít been a single Senate race in recent memory in which the latter won out over the former in a Democratic primary. The takes that Sinema wouldnít substantially outperform Generic D in a GE are also absurd and mostly coming from outraged partisans who want the general electorate to think/prioritize the same things that they do and who deliberately downplay the willingness of Republicans to support 'moderate'/'authentic' Democrats like Manchin, Tester, Golden, Kander, etc. Itís unlikely the NRSC will even prioritize AZ-SEN 2024 if Sinema wins the D primary (they genuinely view her as a moderate Democrat whoís not a reliable vote for the D caucus).

You usually have decent takes but this one ainít it. You have no sense of the average Demís rage toward her. This isnít your usual D primary involving an incumbent.

This is much more akin to GOP primaries.

There also is no conservative African American base here that defaults to the whims of the party elite and responds to electability messaging. White educated libs and Natives/Hispanics.
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JM1295
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« Reply #20 on: January 15, 2022, 03:41:33 PM »

Lean Sinema, will probably be Likely if not Safe Sinema by election day. While Sinema might have lost if the election had been held this week, Democrats arenít known for foolishly and erratically throwing away (or, in this case, putting in play) easily winnable Senate seats (and therefore throwing away any shot they might otherwise have had at controlling the Senate). Itís a choice between "Do we renomate a Senator who votes 95% of the time with us?" or "Do we risk nominating someone who could easily lose to a Republican who will vote 5% of the time with us?", and there hasnít been a single Senate race in recent memory in which the latter won out over the former in a Democratic primary. The takes that Sinema wouldnít substantially outperform Generic D in a GE are also absurd and mostly coming from outraged partisans who want the general electorate to think/prioritize the same things that they do and who deliberately downplay the willingness of Republicans to support 'moderate'/'authentic' Democrats like Manchin, Tester, Golden, Kander, etc. Itís unlikely the NRSC will even prioritize AZ-SEN 2024 if Sinema wins the D primary (they genuinely view her as a moderate Democrat whoís not a reliable vote for the D caucus).

You usually have decent takes but this one ainít it. You have no sense of the average Demís rage toward her. This isnít your usual D primary involving an incumbent.

This is much more akin to GOP primaries.

There also is no conservative African American base here that defaults to the whims of the party elite and responds to electability messaging. White educated libs and Natives/Hispanics.

Yeah, this isn't just some DSA activists raging against her, but rather key groups and organizations who feel she has abandoned them as soon as she got elected to the Senate. The dismissive attitude she takes with her constituents and not holding a town hall since she's been a senator speaks for itself. 2024 election cycle is still far away, but idk how she can effectively make amends over the next 2 years, especially when she has been doubling down on her positions and not engaging her constituents. There's a decent chance she may not even run for reelection and may just cash in for being an effective tool for corporate America.
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« Reply #21 on: January 17, 2022, 03:59:25 PM »

Lean to likely Gallego, plus I'd imagine Biden and Harris would campaign for Gallego (not to mention this would likely become a nationalized primary race).
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #22 on: January 17, 2022, 04:28:52 PM »

Sinema will try her best to pivot to the left in 2023 with a Republican Senate (assuming that's the case), but I don't think it's going to work. I think she's close to toast as of now (Lean or Likely Gallego), although we'll see how much Democrats continue to hate her in the future. I think the hatred is only escalating as we get closer to November 2022 (basically their deadline for their trifecta) with limited "signature" bills passed that can largely be blamed on her. If she were to survive a primary, I'd think she'd have the advantage in the general but wouldn't be unbeatable. With Gallego, I'd say it's a toss-up.
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MargieCat
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« Reply #23 on: January 17, 2022, 05:22:40 PM »

Sinema's most ardent supporters will be voting in the Republican primary.

Gallego will run up the numbers in Hispanic areas.
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coloradocowboi
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« Reply #24 on: January 18, 2022, 10:51:16 AM »

I really donít think sheís planning to run.
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