Charlie Cook just downgraded Maryland Senate race to...

[Moooooo]

Tossup.  I cant find a link, but heard about it on Kos.

[Sam Spade]

Tossup.  I cant find a link, but heard about it on Kos.

I heard that Cardin skipped the debate last night.  Is this correct?

[WalterMitty]

nick, why is this race even competitve?

cardin seems like a typical maryland democrat.  steele is a clown.

i dont understand.

[Sam Spade]

nick, why is this race even competitve?

cardin seems like a typical maryland democrat.  steele is a clown.

i dont understand.

Mainly because Steele has been running an above-average campaign and Cardin has been running a below-average one.  If this was another year, and not 2006, Steele would most likely be leading Cardin in the polls, I would venture to predict.

[Deano963]

Has Steele lead in a single poll?

[WalterMitty]

Has Steele lead in a single poll?

did sonny perdue?

okay.  maybe i should stop right here.  i just remembered ive endorsed cardin for this seat.

[Sam Spade]

Has Steele lead in a single poll?

SUSA has had Steele at +1 and tied in its last two iterations.  Whether you consider this accurate or not is your opinion (and I would probably agree with your opinion in this case), but to answer your question, yes there have been polls w/Steele in the lead.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Competitive: yes
Tossup: no

[NHPolitico]

Blacks voted for him for LG because of his race and not his ideology. Will they do so for a federal race, too? I'm not sure. Black preachers have seemed to indicate that Steele has a lot more support among their congregations than normal Republicans, so they haven't attacked him from the pulpit like they normally do to Republican candidates.  If he were a Democrat, he would have won this race like Spitzer will win in New York. There is no doubt in my mind.  He's smart and charismatic and seems like a nice guy.  His only problem is the "R."

[Deano963]

Has Steele lead in a single poll?

did sonny perdue?

okay.  maybe i should stop right here.  i just remembered ive endorsed cardin for this seat.

It was a serious question, not a sarcastic one.

SUSA has had Steele at +1 and tied in its last two iterations.  Whether you consider this accurate or not is your opinion (and I would probably agree with your opinion in this case), but to answer your question, yes there have been polls w/Steele in the lead.

Thank you Sam. And my opinion on this race is I really don't know enough about it to be honest. I follow it closely but I don't have a good feel for it like I do the Ohio race. On top of that I just don't know what to think about SUSA sometimes. They are pretty much the only pollster that has this as a tight race - so CW would say they are way off - but on the other hand they have spotted emerging trends and certain candidates surging into large leads before other polls, like in the cases of Klobuchar and Brown. But if I had to guess I would say they are at least a little off simply b/c the five-poll rolling  average at pollster.com has Cardin up 7 on Steele. Also, I have heard this poll (and others showing Steele close) did not push leaners, and when that is done in other polls Cardin's lead is around 8-10 points.

[Eraserhead]

I can't understand this rating change at all. This a Democratic state in a Democratic year and Cardin leads even in Steele's internal polling. In Cardin's own internal polling he leads by double digits.

[Moooooo]

nick, why is this race even competitve?

cardin seems like a typical maryland democrat.  steele is a clown.

i dont understand.

One word:  Race. Ive talked with some people at the Cardin campaign and they are very, very worried about Prince George's County and the African American vote in general.  If Steele breaks 30-35%, he could very well win this thing.

[Moooooo]

nick, why is this race even competitve?

cardin seems like a typical maryland democrat.  steele is a clown.

i dont understand.

Mainly because Steele has been running an above-average campaign and Cardin has been running a below-average one.  If this was another year, and not 2006, Steele would most likely be leading Cardin in the polls, I would venture to predict.

That too.

[Moooooo]

Tossup.  I cant find a link, but heard about it on Kos.

I heard that Cardin skipped the debate last night.  Is this correct?

He skipped a non-televised debate that he was scheduled to attend.  On top of that, it was an NAACP debate.  Not exactly a bright idea considering the dynamics of the this race.

[Moooooo]

They'll be on MTP this Sunday, by the way.

[jerusalemcar5]

Uh, why does he have Pennsylvania and Virginia in the same category? 

[Deano963]

Uh, why does he have Pennsylvania and Virginia in the same category? 

Cooks' rankings suck. The National Journal's rankings and Rothenberg's rankings are pretty good.

[Adlai Stevenson]

My hunch is that Cardin will win this race but that Steele will be one of the few statewide candidates this cycle running better than George W. Bush did in 2004.  My prediction:

MARYLAND SENATE
Cardin (D) 53%
Steele (R) 45%
Other 2%

[Sam Spade]

FYI, Rasmussen has a poll out today with Cardin up 5, 50-45.  Still premium, though.

[Sam Spade]

I should add for Nick (wrong thread though)...

O'Malley 50%
Ehrlich 47%

[Conan]

This race really isnt competitive.

[Mike in Maryland]

Tossup.  I cant find a link, but heard about it on Kos.

I heard that Cardin skipped the debate last night.  Is this correct?

He skipped a non-televised debate that he was scheduled to attend.  On top of that, it was an NAACP debate.  Not exactly a bright idea considering the dynamics of the this race.

I don't think he ever confirmed to attend (he tried to square his schedule with the organizers' and couldn't), but I sure wouldn't have advised him to miss it.  He was campaigning at African-American community events in Prince George's County at the time, so at least he was doing something constructive.  But PG and Charles are next to each other; couldn't he have at least made a brief appearance?

Cardin will, however, be at the state NAACP convention/meeting in Baltimore today, where representatives of all the state's local chapters will be there, making it a much larger and probably more important event.  And it's not clear as to if Steele will be there (he hasn't accepted their invitation but may change his schedule.)  If they both attend, then they can debate on who's best for African American causes and issues; if not then there goes a Steele talking point.

[Mike in Maryland]

This race really isnt competitive.

Yes it is.  Though "tossup" may be stretching it a bit.

[Silent Hunter]

Probably will be a Cardin victory, but don't quote me on that.

[Conan]

This is how I tell if something is competitive... If I am sure someones going to win, then its not. Cardin will win, it's not competitive. Tossups  to me = competitive. This is no tossup. NJ is competitive, I believe Menendez will win but I dont have 100% confidence he will.