Most Disastrous Narrow Election Defeat for a Party in the Modern Era
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  Most Disastrous Narrow Election Defeat for a Party in the Modern Era
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Question: Most Disastrous Narrow Election Defeat for a Party in the Modern Era
#1
1948 For Republicans
 
#2
1960 For Republicans
 
#3
2000 For Democrats
 
#4
2016 for Democrats
 
#5
2020 for Republicans
 
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Total Voters: 64

Author Topic: Most Disastrous Narrow Election Defeat for a Party in the Modern Era  (Read 1254 times)
Old School Republican
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« on: December 09, 2021, 02:23:43 AM »

Counting Narrow as the Tipping Point State being under 1 point and there have been 5 elections where thats been the case. I would say from this either 1960 or 2000 has to be the answer but Id argue 1960 given how much of the Democratic agenda JFK/LBJ were able to pass in those 8 years.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #1 on: December 10, 2021, 10:28:32 PM »
« Edited: December 11, 2021, 06:58:00 PM by Minnesota Mike »

2016 easy. Cost Democrats Supreme Court for a generation.  Normalized a defeated candidate trying to stage a coup (I'm not exaggerating). Split the country so bad 30% won't take a life saving vaccine to own the Libs. Botched a once a century pandemic response.
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GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #2 on: December 10, 2021, 10:38:45 PM »

2000 for Dems

They were 537 votes away. If Gore won, the Iraq War would have never happened, and the surveillance state wouldn't be as out of control
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #3 on: December 10, 2021, 10:40:15 PM »

All of these defeats led to a worse outcome for the country except 1948. I am going to go with 1960, as if Richard Nixon won, there would have likely been no Donald Trump and the US would have overall fared a lot better in the 1970s, as John F. Kennedy would have easily won in 1968 and 1972 in a scenario where Richard Nixon wins in 1960.
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Orser67
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« Reply #4 on: December 11, 2021, 02:01:55 PM »

There's a lot of interesting alternate history scenarios to consider, but I went with 2016 because of how easy it is to draw a connection between the election results and what looks like generational control of the Supreme Court.

I would probably list 1948 last because Republicans got to avoid being saddled with the Korean War, and I ultimately don't think it mattered that much that Republicans took over in 1952 instead of 1948. 1960 is hard to rank, because Republicans probably don't accomplish much without Congress, but JFK's election led to a chain of events that ended in probably the second most important domestic legislation package of the 20th century (the Great Society) and cemented the liberal majority on the Warren Court. Any discussion of the 1960s probably needs to include the Vietnam War, but personally I have no idea how things would have gone with Nixon in office.

With 2000, it's pretty unclear how a Gore presidency would have gone; would he have a trifecta to start his term, does he similarly benefit from a bump in 9/11, and if he does have a trifecta, what does he actually do (my guess is, probably not anything as ambitious as Obama and Biden did/are attempting to do)? With that said, I can understand how people might rank this highly on the basis of opposition to the Iraq War, the War on Terror, and also (if any of these people still exist) opposition to the national debt.

It's too early to say anything with confidence about 2020, so I guess I'd rank them:
2016->1960->2000->1948
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #5 on: December 11, 2021, 04:34:49 PM »

1948 seems to have been a poisoned chalice. 1960 was followed by Reagan becoming Governor and Nixon building a lasting Republican coalition. Id say 2000 when you consider that all of Bushs policies except for bans on same-sex marriage and No Child Left Behind have persisted to this day, Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld/Wolfowitz destroyed any sanity when it came to Republican foreign policy, Bush appointed a Chief Justice and a far-right SCOTUS justice, and Bushs non-college-educated and rural voters have stuck with the GOP.
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dw93
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« Reply #6 on: December 17, 2021, 08:56:18 PM »
« Edited: December 17, 2021, 09:03:43 PM by dw93 »

1948 might've, as darklordoftech said, been a poisoned chalice so the GOP might've dodge a bullet, even if 48 wasn't on the same level of poisoned chalice as 1928 or even 1976 or 2004. As for 1960, while the Democrats did successfully expand the social safety net and build a liberal majority on the Supreme Court that arguably lasted through the 1970s, the GOP benefited from the backlash of the 60s and would become (Presidentially starting in 1968 or 1980, congressionally in 1994) the dominant party.

As awful as losing 2016 was, at least saw the Democrats manage to break through heavy gerrymandering and retake the House and also gave some in the party delusional about "muh demographics" and "muh blue wall" a much needed kick in the ass, and it's too early to comment on 2020.

So that leaves 2000, the one election loss that had absolutely no silver lining for the losing party. The majority of Bush's policies, again as darklordortech said, had a very lasting impact. The Bush Presidency was also the point where the Supreme Court really started to go hard right with his replacing O'Connor with Alito, and I'm of the firm belief that you'd never have a President Trump without a President George W. Bush, as Bush dumbing down the Presidency, the GOP, and the country as a whole played an extremely key role in making a Trump Presidency possible.


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Senator Spark
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« Reply #7 on: December 24, 2021, 01:10:56 PM »

2000. Gore likely would have never invaded Iraq, and the legacy of many of Bush's mistakes continue until now. The disastrous unilateral policy undertaken in Iraq had diminished the U.S. reputation abroad. A financial system that was taken aback and mishandled. The result of a close and contentious election portended these dire consequences.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #8 on: December 24, 2021, 01:18:57 PM »

Hands down 2000.
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TheElectoralBoobyPrize
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« Reply #9 on: December 26, 2021, 04:16:57 AM »

I mean disastrous in terms of policy outcomes? How the nation fared? The party's long-term prospects?

Though I think I agree with the OP about 1960 because it's the only one that led to the party being out of power for a whole eight years (yeah, I know we still don't technically know about Republicans/2020, but let's be realistic...)
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President Johnson
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« Reply #10 on: December 27, 2021, 03:30:16 PM »

2000 for Democrats, especially because it's likely Gore actually won Florida. And Dubya's presidency was such a disaster that it triggered several negative events in the aftermath.

Not sure 1948 and 2020 are actually "close elections". 2020 only in terms of margins in battleground states, but Biden crushed Trump by over seven million votes.
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buritobr
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« Reply #11 on: December 27, 2021, 03:43:05 PM »

2000

Good economy, no long war. And the incumbent party lost.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #12 on: December 27, 2021, 04:50:23 PM »

2000 for Democrats, especially because it's likely Gore actually won Florida. And Dubya's presidency was such a disaster that it triggered several negative events in the aftermath.

Not sure 1948 and 2020 are actually "close elections". 2020 only in terms of margins in battleground states, but Biden crushed Trump by over seven million votes.


Well 1948 and 2020 did have the tipping point state be decided by less than 1 point so Id say its definitely close and definitely closer than semi close elections like 1976 and 2004.


Though you could say 1960 was worse for republicans since they pretty much spent the next 8 years completely in the wilderness and democrats pretty much got their entire agenda passed while republicans really didnt from 2001-2009
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #13 on: January 21, 2022, 07:24:40 PM »

2000 most likely, maybe 2016 but only if you think the senate would have flipped and RBG immediately retires.  Otherwise, the R senate just holds open the vacancies and Kennedy waits for a Republican president.
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