Was Trump's 2016 win a fluke? (user search)
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: The Dowager Mod, Dereich)
  Was Trump's 2016 win a fluke? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Was Trump's 2016 win a fluke?  (Read 4457 times)
Del Tachi
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« on: April 21, 2022, 09:14:16 AM »

2016 was a realignment, not a fluke. 

Mr. Trump may have underperformed. A more disciplined candidate could have crushed HRC; or Jeb in a reverse scenario.

See, I don't buy this.  How is a candidate like Cruz or Kasich supposed to replicate Trump's improvement with WWC voters in Michigan or Wisconsin?  A more traditionally conservative candidate would have allowed Clinton to just "Obama 2012" the thing, which was the initial operating assumption of every prognosticator of what the 2016 election would be.  You can argue *maybe* a Jeb! type does better in the suburbs than Trump, but is that enough to flip states like VA or CO that were assumed to be critical components of the GOP's path to 270 at the time?
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