Was Trump's 2016 win a fluke? (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 19, 2024, 01:28:39 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: The Dowager Mod, Dereich)
  Was Trump's 2016 win a fluke? (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: see question above
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
#3
Unsure
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 53

Author Topic: Was Trump's 2016 win a fluke?  (Read 4373 times)
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,683


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

« on: April 21, 2022, 09:48:26 AM »

2016 was a realignment, not a fluke. 

Mr. Trump may have underperformed. A more disciplined candidate could have crushed HRC; or Jeb in a reverse scenario.

See, I don't buy this.  How is a candidate like Cruz or Kasich supposed to replicate Trump's improvement with WWC voters in Michigan or Wisconsin?  A more traditionally conservative candidate would have allowed Clinton to just "Obama 2012" the thing, which was the initial operating assumption of every prognosticator of what the 2016 election would be.  You can argue *maybe* a Jeb! type does better in the suburbs than Trump, but is that enough to flip states like VA or CO that were assumed to be critical components of the GOP's path to 270 at the time?

Kasich did excellent with WWC voters in 2014 and his moderate postions on healthcare could help .
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,683


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

« Reply #1 on: April 21, 2022, 02:19:30 PM »

2016 was a realignment, not a fluke. 

Mr. Trump may have underperformed. A more disciplined candidate could have crushed HRC; or Jeb in a reverse scenario.

See, I don't buy this.  How is a candidate like Cruz or Kasich supposed to replicate Trump's improvement with WWC voters in Michigan or Wisconsin?  A more traditionally conservative candidate would have allowed Clinton to just "Obama 2012" the thing, which was the initial operating assumption of every prognosticator of what the 2016 election would be.  You can argue *maybe* a Jeb! type does better in the suburbs than Trump, but is that enough to flip states like VA or CO that were assumed to be critical components of the GOP's path to 270 at the time?

Kasich did excellent with WWC voters in 2014 and his moderate postions on healthcare could help .

Yeah, I think Kasich would have won as well. But I guess Mohamed has a point here, say if Trump abstained from the most divisive rhetoric and just focussed on ending illegal immigration, new trade deals, "endless wars", political corruption and been moderate on healthcare just like Kasich, while having no personal baggage/scandals, Trump could have won the popular vote and all remaining states Hillary won by less than five points.

Yah I don’t even think Mohammed is saying there that Cruz would have won cause his views are indeed to extreme to win an election outside truly horrendous fundamentals for the Dems . His personality is extremely unlikable too so he can’t even make up his extreme policy views with that either .


Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.024 seconds with 16 queries.