Was Trump's 2016 win a fluke? (user search)
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  2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: The Dowager Mod, Dereich)
  Was Trump's 2016 win a fluke? (search mode)
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Question: see question above
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
#3
Unsure
 
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Total Voters: 53

Author Topic: Was Trump's 2016 win a fluke?  (Read 4249 times)
President Johnson
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Posts: 28,576
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


« on: January 12, 2022, 03:31:59 PM »

Somehow I still feel that way, although 2020 indeed is a strong counter argument. Trump ran against an equally unpopular candidate and barely managed to win the Rust Belt trio in a perfect storm of the Comey letter and with help from third party candidates. If the election was held just a week earlier or later, there could have been a different outcome.
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President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,576
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


« Reply #1 on: April 21, 2022, 02:11:47 PM »

2016 was a realignment, not a fluke. 

Mr. Trump may have underperformed. A more disciplined candidate could have crushed HRC; or Jeb in a reverse scenario.

See, I don't buy this.  How is a candidate like Cruz or Kasich supposed to replicate Trump's improvement with WWC voters in Michigan or Wisconsin?  A more traditionally conservative candidate would have allowed Clinton to just "Obama 2012" the thing, which was the initial operating assumption of every prognosticator of what the 2016 election would be.  You can argue *maybe* a Jeb! type does better in the suburbs than Trump, but is that enough to flip states like VA or CO that were assumed to be critical components of the GOP's path to 270 at the time?

Kasich did excellent with WWC voters in 2014 and his moderate postions on healthcare could help .

Yeah, I think Kasich would have won as well. But I guess Mohamed has a point here, say if Trump abstained from the most divisive rhetoric and just focussed on ending illegal immigration, new trade deals, "endless wars", political corruption and been moderate on healthcare just like Kasich, while having no personal baggage/scandals, Trump could have won the popular vote and all remaining states Hillary won by less than five points.
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President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,576
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


« Reply #2 on: July 07, 2022, 03:38:32 PM »

Wut? How the hell could anyone believe Trump winning was a fluke? Republicans were favoured in 2016, parties very rarely win a third consecutive term.

If anything Clinton winning would have been more of a fluke benefiting from a historically unpopular challenger.

With that in mind I have to ask, and by asking I by no means am saying Trump's win was a fluke, but was Bush's win in 1988 a fluke then given the margin?

To an extent, yeah maybe? Dukakis did lead by 17 points out of the convention. Democrats even made gains downballot that year.

Somehow I always felt that 1988 was actually a winnable race for the Democrats if they didn't nominate an atrocious candidate that ran an uninspiring, gaffe prone campaign. A Southerner may very well have beaten Bush, such as Lloyd Bentsen, Sam Nunn or Lawton Chiles. Or even Bill Clinton.
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