Was Trump's 2016 win a fluke?

[MARGINS6729]

Trump winning the Rust Belt in 2016 wasn't a fluke, but that putting him in the White House & rendering MAGA anything other than a historical footnote related to the 2016 election was certainly an unfortunate quirk of our convoluted electoral system that exists for no other election even here, let alone in any other country in the world. Most Americans didn't want him, just like how most Americans never wanted a Republican Senate majority or a 6-3 conservative SCOTUS majority.

You could argue Trump's win in Michigan was a fluke but his wins in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were not.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Wut? How the hell could anyone believe Trump winning was a fluke? Republicans were favoured in 2016, parties very rarely win a third consecutive term.

If anything Clinton winning would have been more of a fluke benefiting from a historically unpopular challenger.

With that in mind I have to ask, and by asking I by no means am saying Trump's win was a fluke, but was Bush's win in 1988 a fluke then given the margin?

To an extent, yeah maybe? Dukakis did lead by 17 points out of the convention. Democrats even made gains downballot that year.

Somehow I always felt that 1988 was actually a winnable race for the Democrats if they didn't nominate an atrocious candidate that ran an uninspiring, gaffe prone campaign. A Southerner may very well have beaten Bush, such as Lloyd Bentsen, Sam Nunn or Lawton Chiles. Or even Bill Clinton.

Or even Al Gore. Bush Sr. was a mediocre at best candidate who lucked out by getting an android as an opponent.