Was Trump's 2016 win a fluke?
Sir Mohamed:
Inspired by the same question about the 2020 election. Was Trump's election in 2016 a fluke?
Tbh, I'm no longer saying so. I thought so between January 2017 and November 2020, but seeing how 2020 unfolded despite his presidency a complete disaster I don't think it was fluke. Biden's election wasn't fluke either, imho.
One Term Floridian:
It's likelier that 2020 was a fluke tbh... an election completely decided by the COVID pandemic
We'll have to wait and see what 2024 entails
支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear):
No, given 2010s polarization trends it seems like almost any R would've won in 2016.
President Johnson:
Somehow I still feel that way, although 2020 indeed is a strong counter argument. Trump ran against an equally unpopular candidate and barely managed to win the Rust Belt trio in a perfect storm of the Comey letter and with help from third party candidates. If the election was held just a week earlier or later, there could have been a different outcome.
Sir Mohamed:
Quote from: President Johnson on January 12, 2022, 03:31:59 PM
Somehow I still feel that way, although 2020 indeed is a strong counter argument. Trump ran against an equally unpopular candidate and barely managed to win the Rust Belt trio in a perfect storm of the Comey letter and with help from third party candidates. If the election was held just a week earlier or later, there could have been a different outcome.
2016 was clearly the year of the outsider(s) and given that something like a 2/3 majority in polls wanted a prez who can "bring change to DC", Mr. Trump may have underperformed. A more disciplined candidate could have crushed HRC; or Jeb in a reverse scenario.
The Midwest was for sure not a fluke and already close in 2000 and 2004, especially WI. Obama was just an extraordinary candidate and people in 2016 overlooked these factors and just assumed said states were locked down for Dems (which is why HRC didn't invest enough to keep them).
Also needs to be said that other than the Midwest, Trump managed to win all Romney states and FL. So 2016 was not a fluke imho.
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