MI-Glengariff: Whitmer +10

[Skye]

Whitmer (D, inc.) 48.6
Craig (R) 39.1

In this survey Whitmer also polls better than Soldano at 49.% to 33.2%, better than Rinke at 49.6% to 33%, and much better than Dixon at 50.3% to 31%.

Whitmer Approval: 56.2/38.7

The Glengariff Group, Inc. conducted a Michigan statewide survey of November 2022 likely general election voters. The 600 sample, live operator telephone survey was conducted on January 3-7, 2022 and has a margin of error of +/-4.0% with a 95% level of confidence. 25.0% of respondents were contacted via landline telephone. 75.0% of respondents were contacted via cell phone telephone. This survey was commissioned by WDIV Local 4 News and the Detroit News.

https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/politics/2022/01/11/poll-michigan-gov-whitmers-job-approval-trends-up-as-2022-election-looms/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=snd&utm_content=wdiv4

[Grumpier Than Thou]

>decimals

But also 75% of respondents being reached via cell phone is cool

[SnowLabrador]

Junk it. If Whitmer wins, it won't be by more than a point or two.

[ElectionsGuy]

Starting off already.

I'm telling people, large chance 2022 polling is going to be even worse than 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Starting off already.

I'm telling people, large chance 2022 polling is going to be even worse than 2020.

Lol it's a 278 map

[Sir Mohamed]

Blue wave is building up for Nov. Rs havent cracked freiwall states since 2016 and have insurrection behind them. It's still 304 map 😆

[Roll Roons]

Throw it in the average. I expect her to have a tough race but she's far from DOA.

[Chips]

Very interesting poll here. We'll have to see as to whether this is an outlier, or the beginning of a trend.

[Unelectable Bystander]

This doesn’t even seem plausible in a blue wave environment. You only see these types of poll numbers in deeply partisan states (Oklahoma, for example, I believe had a recent poll showing something like 50-33)

[CookieDamage]

doubt it, but she's not DOA

[Pink Panther]

This poll is probably super off, but I wouldn't write off Whitmer just yet. It's still a competitive race.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

This doesn’t even seem plausible in a blue wave environment. You only see these types of poll numbers in deeply partisan states (Oklahoma, for example, I believe had a recent poll showing something like 50-33)

This is pretty much the exact margin she won by in 2018, a blue wave environment.

[SnowLabrador]

This doesn’t even seem plausible in a blue wave environment. You only see these types of poll numbers in deeply partisan states (Oklahoma, for example, I believe had a recent poll showing something like 50-33)

This is pretty much the exact margin she won by in 2018, a blue wave environment.

Yeah, but Republicans have turned strongly against her since then.

[Unelectable Bystander]

This doesn’t even seem plausible in a blue wave environment. You only see these types of poll numbers in deeply partisan states (Oklahoma, for example, I believe had a recent poll showing something like 50-33)

This is pretty much the exact margin she won by in 2018, a blue wave environment.

Yeah, but Republicans have turned strongly against her since then.

And that was also probably due to independents breaking for her in large numbers closer to the election. My point was that the only way to have 50% of the electorate set on the incumbent this early is if a majority/plurality is loyal to that party in the first place.

[Xing]

There would have to be a blue wave for this result to be possible. It's not impossible that Whitmer could pull it out, but it would be by a narrow margin.

[Schiff for Senate]

Junk it. If Whitmer wins, it won't be by more than a point or two.

This is true.

[free my dawg]

>michigan polling

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

>michigan polling

D's are surging because UNEMPLOYMENT IS 3.9 PERCENT WE LOST IN 2010 DUE TO 9 PERCENT UNEMPLOYMENT

Not an automatic red wave and Obamacare was unpopular Obama was at 38 percent Approvals in Aug of 2010

[President Johnson]

Never heard of the pollster. Race remains a tossup until proven otherwise. Michigan polling should be taken with a grain of salt anyway.

[Chips]

Never heard of the pollster. Race remains a tossup until proven otherwise. Michigan polling should be taken with a grain of salt anyway.

[MT Treasurer]

Very believable, like the Walz +13 poll — personally, I’m a Gretchen Whitmer Republican, I’m a proud Candidate Quality Republican, an Incumbency Republican (for all races except presidential contests). Yes, it is true — I hate Biden, I despise the Democratic Party, I think Democrats want to lock me up, I think my freedoms are being taken away, I’m being silenced, I can’t pay my bills, I view Whitmer as a shameless hypocrite who has nothing but contempt for working people, but there needs to be a serious reason for me to actually take this step, which should always be the last resort: voting against an incumbent. It’s not something I can take lightly, it’s something that causes me anxiety when I even contemplate it. Unless Republicans nominate polished, experienced, sane quality candidates in those races who actually offer me a reason to vote against the respective incumbents and a preferable alternative that I can trust to do the right thing, I will vote for Governor Gretchen Whitmer and Attorney General Dana Nessel for reelection.

I also support the great Debbie 'Levin' Stabenow for Senate in 2024 because of her long history of delivering bipartisan results for Michigan families. I will, however, be first in line to cast my ballot against Joe Biden and/or Kamala Harris to return to something resembling normalcy.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Very believable, like the Walz +13 poll — personally, I’m a Gretchen Whitmer Republican, I’m a proud Candidate Quality Republican, an Incumbency Republican (for all races except presidential contests). Yes, it is true — I hate Biden, I despise the Democratic Party, I think Democrats want to lock me up, I think my freedoms are being taken away, I’m being silenced, I can’t pay my bills, I view Whitmer as a shameless hypocrite who has nothing but contempt for working people, but there needs to be a serious reason for me to actually take this step, which should always be the last resort: voting against an incumbent. It’s not something I can take lightly, it’s something that causes me anxiety when I even contemplate it. Unless Republicans nominate polished, experienced, sane quality candidates in those races who actually offer me a reason to vote against the respective incumbents and a preferable alternative that I can trust to do the right thing, I will vote for Governor Gretchen Whitmer and Attorney General Dana Nessel for reelection.

I also support the great Debbie 'Levin' Stabenow for Senate in 2024 because of her long history of delivering bipartisan results for Michigan families. I will, however, be first in line to cast my ballot against Joe Biden and/or Kamala Harris to return to something resembling normalcy.

Normalcy, we had the same Mask restrictions when Trump was in office, we're still gonna have Covid even if Rs get in control and then they'll be stuck with it again and Trump didn't stop us from getting Covid, plse

[S019]

Very believable, like the Walz +13 poll — personally, I’m a Gretchen Whitmer Republican, I’m a proud Candidate Quality Republican, an Incumbency Republican (for all races except presidential contests). Yes, it is true — I hate Biden, I despise the Democratic Party, I think Democrats want to lock me up, I think my freedoms are being taken away, I’m being silenced, I can’t pay my bills, I view Whitmer as a shameless hypocrite who has nothing but contempt for working people, but there needs to be a serious reason for me to actually take this step, which should always be the last resort: voting against an incumbent. It’s not something I can take lightly, it’s something that causes me anxiety when I even contemplate it. Unless Republicans nominate polished, experienced, sane quality candidates in those races who actually offer me a reason to vote against the respective incumbents and a preferable alternative that I can trust to do the right thing, I will vote for Governor Gretchen Whitmer and Attorney General Dana Nessel for reelection.

I also support the great Debbie 'Levin' Stabenow for Senate in 2024 because of her long history of delivering bipartisan results for Michigan families. I will, however, be first in line to cast my ballot against Joe Biden and/or Kamala Harris to return to something resembling normalcy.

Normalcy, we had the same Mask restrictions when Trump was in office, we're still gonna have Covid even if Rs get in control and then they'll be stuck with it again and Trump didn't stop us from getting Covid, plse

It's genuinely amazing how much you lack a sarcasm detector, truly sensational.

[TodayJunior]

Based on the national environment, I don’t think a Whitmer win will exceed 3-5%. Trying to be realistic here as Virginia 2021 was what it was. I know they’re different states and all, but still. 

[Schiff for Senate]

Never heard of the pollster. Race remains a tossup until proven otherwise. Michigan polling should be taken with a grain of salt anyway.

I agree with much of what you said, and Whitmer isn't winning by 10, but this poll still shouldn't be totally disregarded, and it's pretty clear Whitmer is not doing that badly at all. Also, if this doesn't qualify as proof that the race isn't a perfect tossup, I don't know what does.

What I'm saying is, a Whitmer+10 poll shouldn't be taken seriously, and the bigger the lead for one candidate, the truer this is - but it also means that candidate is likelier to actually be leading, as is the case in this poll unless it's very wildly off the mark (which it might be).