🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Question for those who know more about Dutch politics, but image in English speaking world is Netherlands is a fairly progressive country yet seems in almost every election, far more vote for right leaning parties than left leaning even though right wing quite diverse.  What is reason for that and is Netherlands really that progressive or is that more an image some have from just visiting Amsterdam which is quite progressive?

I get cross country comparisons bad idea but seems right in Netherlands gets more than right does in Australia, Canada, UK & US even though US has image of being a fairly right leaning country while other three mixed but generally seen by outsiders as more conservative than Netherlands.  So is image of country false, or is right different than Anglosphere thus bad comparison?

It's because the Netherlands being progressive is kinda a myth. Its even to the right of belgium. Maybe flemish voters are more right wing but the systems are more right wing.

Sure in terms of economical issues, they're far to the left of the USA. But the point is, everyone in Europe and everyone in the world is, aside of maybe Israel.

Even the far right supports universal healthcare. It's consensus. It's commonly accepted. No-one questions that. It's not even a political issue.

Universal healthcare is like slavery here. The debate is settled.

What the hell? How is Israel to the right of the US on economic issues?

[Alcibiades]

A left-wing party that wants to do well needs to get tough on immigration and get rid of those types (the SP had the right idea here but didn't do this properly: they didn't go all the way to make it credible and therefore lost everyone).

Come on, the Dutch electoral system allows you to win seats if you can exploit an issue that even 2% of voters care about. Do you seriously not think that if every single current left-of-centre party got ‘tough’ on immigration, a new pro-immigration left-liberal party would spring up that would win a lot of seats by utterly cannibalising the current GL-PvdA etc. vote?

[DavidB.]

A left-wing party that wants to do well needs to get tough on immigration and get rid of those types (the SP had the right idea here but didn't do this properly: they didn't go all the way to make it credible and therefore lost everyone).

Come on, the Dutch electoral system allows you to win seats if you can exploit an issue that even 2% of voters care about. Do you seriously not think that if every single current left-of-centre party got ‘tough’ on immigration, a new pro-immigration left-liberal party would spring up that would win a lot of seats by utterly cannibalising the current GL-PvdA etc. vote?

That's not what I'm saying. What I'm saying is that if the PvdA had done the same thing as the Danish Social Democrats did but in a Dutch way, they would be very successful. Undoubtedly D66 and GroenLinks would be big and very pro-immigration and attacking the PvdA relentlessly. But the PvdA could occupy the center ground in politics. NSC would be smaller, the VVD would be smaller, the PVV would have about a third of its current vote, and the 'broad left' as a whole would be able to be competitive to the point where a majority could be in sight. It's not the economic policies that make so many people distrust the left. It's really mostly immigration, and all sorts of identity and security issues tied to it, and the utter mismanagement (more like: no management whatsoever) of the issue over the last decade. Everybody knows the VVD was in power and they rightly get their share of the blame (see last night), but since Rutte-II always with left-wing/liberal/bleeding heart Christian coalition partners that tied their hands and only called for opening the borders even further. The climate issue has made things more complicated too, but that one should be manageable for a party not completely out of touch with the median voter.

[mileslunn]

A left-wing party that wants to do well needs to get tough on immigration and get rid of those types (the SP had the right idea here but didn't do this properly: they didn't go all the way to make it credible and therefore lost everyone).

Come on, the Dutch electoral system allows you to win seats if you can exploit an issue that even 2% of voters care about. Do you seriously not think that if every single current left-of-centre party got ‘tough’ on immigration, a new pro-immigration left-liberal party would spring up that would win a lot of seats by utterly cannibalising the current GL-PvdA etc. vote?

That's not what I'm saying. What I'm saying is that if the PvdA had done the same thing as the Danish Social Democrats did but in a Dutch way, they would be very successful. Undoubtedly D66 and GroenLinks would be big and very pro-immigration and attacking the PvdA relentlessly. But the PvdA could occupy the center ground in politics. NSC would be smaller, the VVD would be smaller, the PVV would have about a third of its current vote, and the 'broad left' as a whole would be able to be competitive to the point where a majority could be in sight. It's not the economic policies that make so many people distrust the left. It's really mostly immigration, and all sorts of identity and security issues tied to it. The climate issue has made things more complicated too, but that one should be manageable for a party not completely out of touch with the median voter.

I get impression left in Netherlands trying to follow Anglosphere left which I don't think works there.  US is a lot more polarized and large metro areas make up a much larger share of population in US than Netherlands while rural areas tend to be truly rural, not a town or village within a stones throw of a city so they live in two different worlds speak two different languages thus both have very strong base locked up and fight over small number of votes.

There is also Canada where Trudeau is very much like Dutch left but Canada in a lot of ways is very much an anomaly in Western world so its a country you can run on a progressive elitist platform and win although even then if current polls are remotely accurate may have limits. 

It seems right in Netherlands by contrast is quite distinct from right in Anglosphere as I do wonder if right was like British Tories, GOP, Canadian Tories or Australian L/NP if they would have same level of success?  Mind you also in those you have many factions under one roof whereas in Netherlands each faction has own party.

[H. Ross Peron]

What is the difference between PVV and FvD? I'm not seeing much reason for them to be different parties u less it's just a personalist thing.

FvD was much more focused on conspiracy theories and anti-Atlanticism while PVV was more 'normal' in that regard. FvD had a brief bubble a few years ago because they were the most prominent, loudest anti-lockdown voices, but since then they've fallen apart, with there being a viral moment (in Dutch unfortunately) where their leader, Baudet, speculates in Parliament that the moon landing may not have happened, and then Wilders mocks him by saying "this man is halfway to the moon already".

The divide between very-culturally-right-and-open-to-conspiracy-theories (Baudet) against very-culturally-right-but-living-in-the-real-world (Wilders) might be more visible to someone actually on the right (especially if you interpret skepticism about climate change, which I think they've both voiced, as "conspiracy theory"), but from my perspective they're really quite different. (A big tell here is that Wilders is very Zionist -- he literally lived in a West Bank settlement for some time in the 1980s -- and Baudet is more along the lines of being afraid of ZOG). Reaching for American equivalents is very hard, but if I had to compare to someone Baudet would be along the lines of a Charlie Kirk (a widely-mocked media figure), while Wilders is...uh...maybe Giuliani (guy who is moderate economically and even socially but very very very extreme culturally, and has also been around as a significant political figure basically forever), or given the weird ties to foreign movements perhaps Ron Paul (though Wilders is quite moderate economically but, again, very very very extreme culturally -- his most signature proposal is banning the Quran).

Best comparison imo is 2016 Trumpism (laser focused on immigration and to a lesser extent crime, strong antipathy to Islam, pragmatic on economics) vs post 2020 Trumpism (diffuse focus driven by faddishness resulting in kind of RW intersectionality'-ie hardline stances on say LGBT issues or antivax sentiment, increasingly conspiratorial). Ann Coulter vs MTG.

[RGM2609]

It is so interesting for me, living in Eastern Europe that the country which the far right/Russian propaganda portrays as a "woke paradise" has such a strong backlash to everything related to wokeness. I wonder if that will change things in the discourse of certain Fifth columnists around here.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

If I were the PVDA-GL, I'd shut down any ideas of being in a broad government and instead do some real deep autopsy of what the hell went wrong. Going into government seems like a surefire way to collapse even more for them at this point. The people voted for PVV, and they'll have to deal with that. Now they need to find out *why*.

[Pericles]

If I were the PVDA-GL, I'd shut down any ideas of being in a broad government and instead do some real deep autopsy of what the hell went wrong. Going into government seems like a surefire way to collapse even more for them at this point. The people voted for PVV, and they'll have to deal with that. Now they need to find out *why*.

They seem like the party with the least downside from a grand coalition.

Ultimately in a parliamentary democracy it's about counting to 50%+1 and not just a small plurality. Obviously there are political considerations and it wouldn't be easy to form a government without the PVV, but it would be democratic because it would be a majority of Parliament (as of course a coalition with the PVV would be). There isn't some moral argument for Wilders lol.

[DL]

If I were the PVDA-GL, I'd shut down any ideas of being in a broad government and instead do some real deep autopsy of what the hell went wrong. Going into government seems like a surefire way to collapse even more for them at this point. The people voted for PVV, and they'll have to deal with that. Now they need to find out *why*.

Not sure how you draw that conclusion - GL/PVDA got about what polls projected and about as much as they could have expected. PVV did better because VVD and other rightwing parties did a lot worse. It seems to me that if you can grab the PM chair it makes a huge difference. In the past the PvdA was a huge loser after an election where they had almost as many seats as VVD but because VVD was bigger they got the PM and that meant PvdA suffered the usual fate of any party perceived as a "junior" coalition partner. There is no substitute for being in power.

I really not get the logic that some people spout that boils down to "its bad to win power because you may make unpopular decisions and then lose power in a subsequent election". If you are not willing to take the risk of being in government then what are you doing running in elections at all? 

[Oryxslayer]

If I were the PVDA-GL, I'd shut down any ideas of being in a broad government and instead do some real deep autopsy of what the hell went wrong. Going into government seems like a surefire way to collapse even more for them at this point. The people voted for PVV, and they'll have to deal with that. Now they need to find out *why*.

Except it's really not up to them, it's up to Omtzigt. For example, if he says he can't work with either them or the PVV, then there almost certainly will be new elections.

[Coldstream]

GL/PVDA have the most to gain from a grand coalition *if* they lead it. Cos they get to be in power and therefore to do things, but it’d draw support from VVD to PVV & away from NSC (probably all over the spectrum) so I’m not sure why the right/centre would agree.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

The main reason I’m saying that is because I think any broad anti PVV government would fall apart, and the fallout from such a collapse would likely damage them. Perhaps I’m just a naïve foreigner looking in but that’s just my impression of what would happen.

[mileslunn]

If I were the PVDA-GL, I'd shut down any ideas of being in a broad government and instead do some real deep autopsy of what the hell went wrong. Going into government seems like a surefire way to collapse even more for them at this point. The people voted for PVV, and they'll have to deal with that. Now they need to find out *why*.

Not sure how you draw that conclusion - GL/PVDA got about what polls projected and about as much as they could have expected. PVV did better because VVD and other rightwing parties did a lot worse. It seems to me that if you can grab the PM chair it makes a huge difference. In the past the PvdA was a huge loser after an election where they had almost as many seats as VVD but because VVD was bigger they got the PM and that meant PvdA suffered the usual fate of any party perceived as a "junior" coalition partner. There is no substitute for being in power.

I really not get the logic that some people spout that boils down to "its bad to win power because you may make unpopular decisions and then lose power in a subsequent election". If you are not willing to take the risk of being in government then what are you doing running in elections at all? 

It depends on how economy goes.  SPD in Germany did bad when junior partner but when finally got lucky break and won in 2021 economy went southward largely due to Ukraine war and higher inflation and now SPD is on track for worst showing ever.  So being in government is double edge sword.  If economy improves, then yeah should help them.  If economy does badly could take them from already weak position to even weaker.  Lets remember while combined right has always beat combined left in Dutch politics, gap is usually much smaller than it is now.

I do think though Danish and Portuguese social democrats are best models.  Former takes tough line on immigration which seems to be an issue really hurting left while latter focused more on pocket book issues.  In North America, left gets a lot of its support from upper middle class urban types and that cohort is much weaker in Europe as well as many still vote centre-right, haven't swung left like in North America.  Left in Europe can only win by regaining its working class support, substituting university educated upper middle class urban types may work in Anglosphere but I don't see it as way forward for European left.

Focusing on climate change, being socially progressive, open on immigration is popular with upper middle class not working class and it feels like left in Netherlands tried to be like North American left ignoring cultural differences while right had some commonalties but also some big differences.  Wilders is big supporter of a large welfare state which right in North America are against.

[DL]

GL/PVDA have the most to gain from a grand coalition *if* they lead it. Cos they get to be in power and therefore to do things, but it’d draw support from VVD to PVV & away from NSC (probably all over the spectrum) so I’m not sure why the right/centre would agree.

I guess that depends on whether you think PVV has reached its ceiling or not. 37 seats is close to getting the votes of everyone who would ever even consider voting for them

[mileslunn]

GL/PVDA have the most to gain from a grand coalition *if* they lead it. Cos they get to be in power and therefore to do things, but it’d draw support from VVD to PVV & away from NSC (probably all over the spectrum) so I’m not sure why the right/centre would agree.

Would it though.  In neighbouring Germany, SPD is at lowest point ever and in government so I almost feel like had CDU/CSU won in 2021, SPD would be in much better shape than they are.  Yes in Spain and Portugal by getting into government helped them but Germany is opposite so it comes down to economy and whether it improves thus benefit or worsens thus fall further.

[Coldstream]

GL/PVDA have the most to gain from a grand coalition *if* they lead it. Cos they get to be in power and therefore to do things, but it’d draw support from VVD to PVV & away from NSC (probably all over the spectrum) so I’m not sure why the right/centre would agree.

I guess that depends on whether you think PVV has reached its ceiling or not. 37 seats is close to getting the votes of everyone who would ever even consider voting for them

Polls upthread suggested that VVD voters would rather work with Wilders than Timmermans.I don’t think it’s hard to imagine that if the VVD do make a deal with the left to shut Wilders out of the government that there’s more of a movement from VVD-PVV.

[Coldstream]

GL/PVDA have the most to gain from a grand coalition *if* they lead it. Cos they get to be in power and therefore to do things, but it’d draw support from VVD to PVV & away from NSC (probably all over the spectrum) so I’m not sure why the right/centre would agree.

Would it though.  In neighbouring Germany, SPD is at lowest point ever and in government so I almost feel like had CDU/CSU won in 2021, SPD would be in much better shape than they are.  Yes in Spain and Portugal by getting into government helped them but Germany is opposite so it comes down to economy and whether it improves thus benefit or worsens thus fall further.

Being in power is always better than not being in power if you have any confidence in your own ideas or ability.

[mileslunn]

GL/PVDA have the most to gain from a grand coalition *if* they lead it. Cos they get to be in power and therefore to do things, but it’d draw support from VVD to PVV & away from NSC (probably all over the spectrum) so I’m not sure why the right/centre would agree.

I guess that depends on whether you think PVV has reached its ceiling or not. 37 seats is close to getting the votes of everyone who would ever even consider voting for them

Is it though.  For a long time high teens was seen as ceiling for National Front in France but nowadays getting over 40% or even 50% is no longer seen as far fetched.  Chega in Portugal, AfD in Germany are polling at levels that were unthinkable not long ago.  Off course maybe best solution is left form government and combine left of centre economics with tough on immigration.  In Denmark they have done that and far right has crashed.  Once used to be one of strongest in Europe, now one of weakest.  

Note I am personally pro immigration myself, but then again I am Canadian not European and watching European from outside, I think left has no choice but to take harder line on immigration if want to succeed.  I think in countries built on immigration (Australia, Canada, NZ, and US) much different mentality than countries not built on it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.partijgedrag.nl/partijgelijkenis.php
I found this interesting.

[mileslunn]

GL/PVDA have the most to gain from a grand coalition *if* they lead it. Cos they get to be in power and therefore to do things, but it’d draw support from VVD to PVV & away from NSC (probably all over the spectrum) so I’m not sure why the right/centre would agree.

Would it though.  In neighbouring Germany, SPD is at lowest point ever and in government so I almost feel like had CDU/CSU won in 2021, SPD would be in much better shape than they are.  Yes in Spain and Portugal by getting into government helped them but Germany is opposite so it comes down to economy and whether it improves thus benefit or worsens thus fall further.

Being in power is always better than not being in power if you have any confidence in your own ideas or ability.

Is it though.  Portugal and Spain suggest yes as in both cases party came in second and got in from support of smaller parties, but next election won outright (yes fallen since due to fatigue of government and length in office) so if like those two then yes could work in favour.  But as I mention Germany is exact opposite.  I am pretty sure if SPD in Germany weren't in government, they would be in far better shape than currently are.

[Coldstream]

GL/PVDA have the most to gain from a grand coalition *if* they lead it. Cos they get to be in power and therefore to do things, but it’d draw support from VVD to PVV & away from NSC (probably all over the spectrum) so I’m not sure why the right/centre would agree.

Would it though.  In neighbouring Germany, SPD is at lowest point ever and in government so I almost feel like had CDU/CSU won in 2021, SPD would be in much better shape than they are.  Yes in Spain and Portugal by getting into government helped them but Germany is opposite so it comes down to economy and whether it improves thus benefit or worsens thus fall further.

Being in power is always better than not being in power if you have any confidence in your own ideas or ability.

Is it though.  Portugal and Spain suggest yes as in both cases party came in second and got in from support of smaller parties, but next election won outright (yes fallen since due to fatigue of government and length in office) so if like those two then yes could work in favour.  But as I mention Germany is exact opposite.  I am pretty sure if SPD in Germany weren't in government, they would be in far better shape than currently are.

Anyone who’d rather be a popular opposition than an unpopular government should not (and in all likelihood would not) ever get close to any kind of electoral prominence.

[mileslunn]

GL/PVDA have the most to gain from a grand coalition *if* they lead it. Cos they get to be in power and therefore to do things, but it’d draw support from VVD to PVV & away from NSC (probably all over the spectrum) so I’m not sure why the right/centre would agree.

Would it though.  In neighbouring Germany, SPD is at lowest point ever and in government so I almost feel like had CDU/CSU won in 2021, SPD would be in much better shape than they are.  Yes in Spain and Portugal by getting into government helped them but Germany is opposite so it comes down to economy and whether it improves thus benefit or worsens thus fall further.

Being in power is always better than not being in power if you have any confidence in your own ideas or ability.

Is it though.  Portugal and Spain suggest yes as in both cases party came in second and got in from support of smaller parties, but next election won outright (yes fallen since due to fatigue of government and length in office) so if like those two then yes could work in favour.  But as I mention Germany is exact opposite.  I am pretty sure if SPD in Germany weren't in government, they would be in far better shape than currently are.

Anyone who’d rather be a popular opposition than an unpopular government should not (and in all likelihood would not) ever get close to any kind of electoral prominence.

Sometimes governments become popular due to circumstances beyond their control.  Thanks to Ukraine war and Germany depending on Russian natural gas, it was a poisoned chalice so whomever was in government was going to take a big hit.  Agree if no external shock better to be in government but get an external shock people will blame you like doing in Germany.

[DavidB.]

No way GL-PvdA are entering the government after this. VVD and NSC will not allow it, they wouldn't survive it. I can't see any other options than some sort of construction with PVV, NSC, VVD and BBB (which could also be something like a VVD-NSC-BBB government with PVV outside support) or new elections.

[Logical]

I'm pretty sure any government with Wilders and Omtzigt will last two years at most anyway so the left should use that time to be the government's toughest critics.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

I'm pretty sure any government with Wilders and Omtzigt will last two years at most anyway so the left should use that time to be the government's toughest critics.

Agreed. This is not a good time to go into government and with these results it’s a poisoned chalice for anyone forming government. Best for them to lick their wounds and try and reach out to voters they’ve lost. Maybe focus more on cost of living and the consequences of climate change (especially the former) to try and get back some of their old voters who went PVV this time? Idk, I’m not Dutch so I’m not exactly a campaign strategist there but that’s just my (dumb American) take