🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[adma]

Amsterdam:

28.8% GL-PvdA (+11.2)
10.2% VVD (-2.8 )
  8.5% D66 (-14.2)
  8.2% PVV (+3.1)
  6.2% DENK (-0.4)
  5.6% NSC (new)
  4.0% PVdD (-3.0)
  3.4% Volt (-2.5)
  2.7% SP (-2.2)
  2.2% FvD (-0.5)

Those who speak of a leftish Netherlandish stereotype: I believe this is what you have in mind.  (To many, Amsterdam might as well = the whole country.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Amsterdam:

28.8% GL-PvdA (+11.2)
10.2% VVD (-2.8 )
  8.5% D66 (-14.2)
  8.2% PVV (+3.1)
  6.2% DENK (-0.4)
  5.6% NSC (new)
  4.0% PVdD (-3.0)
  3.4% Volt (-2.5)
  2.7% SP (-2.2)
  2.2% FvD (-0.5)

Those who speak of a leftish Netherlandish stereotype: I believe this is what you have in mind.  (To many, Amsterdam might as well = the whole country.)

Although even this is far more right-wing than almost any major American city.

[Zinneke]

"Communist-right"... Well, that's a new one.

Is it? Some Dutch far right parties and the SP are not far off Juche Thought or National Bolshevism.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So, what about a sort of grand coalition of GL-PvdA+VVD+NSC+D66? 78 seats...probably wouldn't last long though.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

I've gotta say, coming days after Argentina this has definitely been a rough few weeks for those of us on the Left. Although perhaps not entirely unforeseeable.

Next major elections seem to be Taiwan and Finland next January.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

So, what about a sort of grand coalition of GL-PvdA+VVD+NSC+D66? 78 seats...probably wouldn't last long though.

Wouldn't last long and I'd assume PVV would only grow bigger in the next election.

[mileslunn]

Amsterdam:

28.8% GL-PvdA (+11.2)
10.2% VVD (-2.8 )
  8.5% D66 (-14.2)
  8.2% PVV (+3.1)
  6.2% DENK (-0.4)
  5.6% NSC (new)
  4.0% PVdD (-3.0)
  3.4% Volt (-2.5)
  2.7% SP (-2.2)
  2.2% FvD (-0.5)

Those who speak of a leftish Netherlandish stereotype: I believe this is what you have in mind.  (To many, Amsterdam might as well = the whole country.)

Absolutely and only 5% of Dutch live in Amsterdam.  While very small country area wise and very high population density, population is actually fairly evenly spread out.  Its total opposite of Australia and Canada where heavily concentrated in few cities and even quite different than US where population quite spread out in terms of no one city dominates, but on individual state level and most states larger area than Netherlands, usually largest metro area is at least 1/3 of state population and in some states over half or if less you have two or three big metro areas of similar size that dominate.

Still part of stereotype was until a decade ago, it was closest place to legalizing marijuana as while not legal like in Canada and multiple US states, you do have marijuana cafes and if under a certain amount tolerated.  Also first country to legalize gay marriage too.  So I think on certain issues it is quite liberal, but on many others is not.  I mean its not your San Francisco of Europe even if on a few select issues is San Francisco like.  Also on prostitution fairly liberal too and same with Euthanasia.  It likewise has a rather high number of safe injection sites and I believe only recently has Canada eclipsed it (under Trudeau who is very much your stereotype of a strong progressive and social liberal).

But on immigration which is main issue Wilders won on, Netherlands like much of Europe is quite conservative, probably even more conservative than US.  And on economics Netherlands fairly pro free market too.  Maybe not as much as US is and even slightly less so than UK, but way more so than say France or Italy.  While most secular today, generally Protestant countries in Europe tend to be more pro free market while Catholic more statist due to historical views of churches and that has lasted even as religion become less influential. 

[mileslunn]

I've gotta say, coming days after Argentina this has definitely been a rough few weeks for those of us on the Left. Although perhaps not entirely unforeseeable.

Next major elections seem to be Taiwan and Finland next January.

Its been tough for left in general in past year.  Spain only good news in past year and even then was a very sketchy win.  UK is really only good news for left now and that is more due to fatigue of current government and fewer choices so if you want to get rid of Tories, Labour there is your only option whereas in others you have multiple options so can switch from one right wing to another. 

[H. Ross Peron]

With 94% of the vote in, De Hond and the GeenStijl team have the following final prognosis of the night:

PVV 38
GL-PvdA 25
VVD 24
NSC 21
D66 9
BBB 7
CDA 5
SP 4
DENK 3
PvdD 3
FVD 3
SGP 3
ChristenUnie 3
Volt 2
JA21 0
All others 0

JA21 are just below the threshold, it will depend on a few hundred votes. Getting flashbacks from the Israeli New Right party with about the same position in their political system being in the same position.

The GeenStijl crew are calling it a night now and so do I.

CU and SGP being the same size now is remarkable. Presumably a lot of CU voters went tactically for NSC-were there any significant issue differences between the two parties?

[Continential]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/755607291790000131https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1727445295431090277The leader of the biggest party in the Netherlands.

[jeron]

With 94% of the vote in, De Hond and the GeenStijl team have the following final prognosis of the night:

PVV 38
GL-PvdA 25
VVD 24
NSC 21
D66 9
BBB 7
CDA 5
SP 4
DENK 3
PvdD 3
FVD 3
SGP 3
ChristenUnie 3
Volt 2
JA21 0
All others 0

JA21 are just below the threshold, it will depend on a few hundred votes. Getting flashbacks from the Israeli New Right party with about the same position in their political system being in the same position.

The GeenStijl crew are calling it a night now and so do I.

CU and SGP being the same size now is remarkable. Presumably a lot of CU voters went tactically for NSC-were there any significant issue differences between the two parties?

It was mixed. 12% to NSC, 8% to SGP, 6%,to Pvda-GL and the others to a range of other parties. There are clear differences between cu and nsc. CU is a protestant/evangelical party which has become more progressive throughout the years. Omtzigt is a catholic. His wife is syrian-othodox and he therefore appeals to that specific community and the armenian-orthodox, who are also potential CU voters because of religion and biblical values
Nsc wants to restrict immigration much more than CU (the issue that ended the previous government which included cu). CU is generally more supportive of environmental measures and combating climate change and in that sense sides more with the left

[Cassius]

Now that most of the votes are in, here’s my stab at the top three winners and losers:

Winners
1. PVV: Self explanatory.
2. BBB: Failed to get the kind of massive result that looked possible earlier in the year, but then I get the impression that that was never the real purpose of the party. They nonetheless increased vote and seat share and have room to grow in the regions should NSC disappoint.
3. NSC: Failed to live up to the early campaign hype, but didn’t collapse completely either and will be vital to any government formation.

Losers
1. CDA: Catastrophically bad result for a party that was originally created to be a mass party with mass appeal. They’re now little more than a minor party and offer nothing that no other party doesn’t offer more convincingly. Had a dreadful result in Overijssel, previously their strongest province, where their vote seems to have gone over to NSC en masse.
2. GL-PvdA: Came second and increased their vote share, but in the end not by all that much (they only improved on their combined 2017 vote share by less than a point), and this came mostly at the expense of cannibalising other liberal and left-leaning parties, who had a pretty uniformly dreadful night.
3. NSC: A winner and a loser - on this side of the ledger, they underperformed expectations at the start of the campaign and their pool of voters looks so heterogeneous that they stand to lose a large chunk of their voters no matter who they go with in government (although I do think propping up a Timmermans-led government would be worse for them, given the fact they got their strongest results in places like Overijssel.

[DavidB.]

Now that most of the votes are in, here’s my stab at the top three winners and losers:

I will make a post going by all the parties and their results later, but the VVD should be in the top three biggest losers and is arguably the biggest one after GL-PvdA (CDA was already priced in). This will tarnish Rutte's legacy just like Trump's election tarnished Obama's legacy and made his presidency look different. The PVV landslide and not to forget NSC's spectacular rise (second biggest newcomer ever, only after LPF 2002!) is Dutch voters' last farewell to a Prime Minister and a party of power whose policies and style so many people in the country are sick and tired of.

https://twitter.com/kuitenbrouwer/status/1727436534994117104?s=20

Dilan's "Every generation a new leader" video now suddenly gets Hillary "Happy birthday to this future president" vibes. Although Dilan could still become PM in a PVV-VVD-NSC-BBB government I suppose.

[H. Ross Peron]

I'm finding some Groningen municipalities where GL/PVDA support declined from 2021, despite the D66 and SP vote also collapsing there.

Most extreme example might be Pekala:
GL/PVDA: 12.9%->9.5%
SP: 15.2%->5.8%
D66: 6.2%->1.8%

[DavidB.]

I'm finding some Groningen municipalities where GL/PVDA support declined from 2021, despite the D66 and SP vote also collapsing there.

Most extreme example might be Pekala:
GL/PVDA: 12.9%->9.5%
SP: 15.2%->5.8%
D66: 6.2%->1.8%

The PVV got 42% in Pekela.

In 2012, only 11 years ago, the PvdA got 40% and SP came second with 17.7%.

CU and SGP being the same size now is remarkable. Presumably a lot of CU voters went tactically for NSC -were there any significant issue differences between the two parties?

In addition to what Jeron said: I don't think they went tactically. It was clear NSC wasn't a 'tactical' vote this time. They went based on substance. Not necessarily against CU, but mostly for Omtzigt.

[Mike88]

99.3% counted, just 1 municipality yet to report. (10,3 million ballots)

23.5% PVV (+12.7)
15.5% GL-PvdA (+4.7)
15.1% VVD (-6.7)
12.8% NSC (new)
  6.2% D66 (-8.8 )
  4.6% BBB (+3.6)
  3.3% CDA (-6.2)
  3.1% SP (-2.9)
  2.3% DENK (+0.3)
  2.2% FvD (-2.8 )
  2.2% PvdD (-1.6)
  2.1% SGP (nc)
  2.0% CU (-1.4)
  1.7% Volt (-0.7)
  0.7% JA21 (-1.7)
  0.5% BVNL (new)
  0.5% 50Plus (-0.5)
  0.4% BIJ1 (-0.4)
  1.3% Others (-0.4)

77.7% Turnout (-1.1)

[CumbrianLefty]

I've gotta say, coming days after Argentina this has definitely been a rough few weeks for those of us on the Left. Although perhaps not entirely unforeseeable.

Next major elections seem to be Taiwan and Finland next January.

Though there is an argument that Wilders didn't win this election as much as Omzigt losing it - if he maintains the support he had going into this campaign we have a very different narrative.

And there is a real possibility of another election soon, where the PVV could easily lose support.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is the second election in a row in which the combined score of the left parties was under a quarter of the vote. There was also no obvious sign of a serious recovery in those places where the collapse over the past decade has been particularly severe. This should prompt serious reflection at the very least (and as to that matter, well, my general views would not be a secret), but I suspect that it won't.

[jeron]

Now that most of the votes are in, here’s my stab at the top three winners and losers:

Winners
1. PVV: Self explanatory.
2. BBB: Failed to get the kind of massive result that looked possible earlier in the year, but then I get the impression that that was never the real purpose of the party. They nonetheless increased vote and seat share and have room to grow in the regions should NSC disappoint.
3. NSC: Failed to live up to the early campaign hype, but didn’t collapse completely either and will be vital to any government formation.

Losers
1. CDA: Catastrophically bad result for a party that was originally created to be a mass party with mass appeal. They’re now little more than a minor party and offer nothing that no other party doesn’t offer more convincingly. Had a dreadful result in Overijssel, previously their strongest province, where their vote seems to have gone over to NSC en masse.
2. GL-PvdA: Came second and increased their vote share, but in the end not by all that much (they only improved on their combined 2017 vote share by less than a point), and this came mostly at the expense of cannibalising other liberal and left-leaning parties, who had a pretty uniformly dreadful night.
3. NSC: A winner and a loser - on this side of the ledger, they underperformed expectations at the start of the campaign and their pool of voters looks so heterogeneous that they stand to lose a large chunk of their voters no matter who they go with in government (although I do think propping up a Timmermans-led government would be worse for them, given the fact they got their strongest results in places like Overijssel.

There is only one winner. In what world BBB would be considered a winner i don't know.
They made some spectacular own goals. The only consolation is that it could have been worse considering things went downhill rapidly the last couple of months.

[crals]

Wilders definitely won, by a very clear margin, more than anyone else lost. That’s the only possible narrative from this election, anything else is cope.

All things considered, a government with PVV involvement (not necessarily led by Wilders or even including PVV) is the only option that doesn't subvert the democratic will. Wilders seems to be open to compromise on the most controversial aspects of his platform and Omtzigt's speech seemed to imply he will at least negotiate. I'm expecting some sort of PVV-VVD-NSC-BBB agreement.

[Red Velvet]

So according the exit poll, the Center-Left grew 8 seats at the expense of the Left losing 7 seats. Nothing changes much there.

While the Center-Right was basically canibalized to give more space to the Right and the Far-Right to grow a lot in line with the #GlobalTrends we’re already used to now.

The center of country is definitely shifting to the Right in what was already a very right-wing country (even if in a Center-Right/Liberal kind of way).

To me on the surface that sounds like a more closed Netherlands that is more skeptical of its role in the EU, which weakens it. Especially if PVV manages to lead the government coallition?

Considering that with other key EU country leaders they are pooling horribly, like Macron and Scholz, it’s hard to not see a drastic shift in the near future.

[Logical]

99.3% counted, just 1 municipality yet to report. (10,3 million ballots)

The Dutch Caribbean is still to report and I don't know how or if the foreign ballots are counted yet.

[jeron]

99.3% counted, just 1 municipality yet to report. (10,3 million ballots)

The Dutch Caribbean is still to report and I don't know how or if the foreign ballots are counted yet.

The results of the foreign ballots are usually announced later

[adma]

Amsterdam:

28.8% GL-PvdA (+11.2)
10.2% VVD (-2.8 )
  8.5% D66 (-14.2)
  8.2% PVV (+3.1)
  6.2% DENK (-0.4)
  5.6% NSC (new)
  4.0% PVdD (-3.0)
  3.4% Volt (-2.5)
  2.7% SP (-2.2)
  2.2% FvD (-0.5)

Those who speak of a leftish Netherlandish stereotype: I believe this is what you have in mind.  (To many, Amsterdam might as well = the whole country.)

Although even this is far more right-wing than almost any major American city.

That's because the GOP's gonna GOP.  But at times, an analogous id can shine through, especially on a municipal level (cf Ford Nation in Toronto)

[Logical]

Rutte IV government parties
VVD 24 (-10)
D66 9 (-15)
CDA 5 (-10)
CU 3 (-2)

Goverment : 41 (-37)