🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: New Schoof government sworn in
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  🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: New Schoof government sworn in
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DavidB.
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« Reply #150 on: March 19, 2023, 06:02:18 PM »

According to a new projection by ANP Election Desk, BBB will gain another seat and go to 17 while D66 lose another seat and go to 5. This projection is based on the preliminary results of all municipalities, 95% of the counted votes in Amsterdam and the vote from abroad. Apparently there were some other changes in the meantime that I missed too (PVV keeping its 5th seat, Volt gaining only one).

Projection:
BBB 17 (+17), GL-PvdA 15 (+1), VVD 10 (-2), D66 5 (-2), PVV 5 (nc), CDA 5 (-4), PvdD 4 (+1), SP 3 (-1), JA21 3 (+3), FVD 2 (-10), CU 2 (-2), SGP 1 (-1), 50Plus 1 (-1), OSF 1 (nc), Volt 1 (+1).

Government: 22
Government+GL-PvdA: 37

Left/progressive opposition: 23
Coalition: 22
Right/conservative opposition: 28
50Plus and OSF unclassified
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Death of a Salesman
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« Reply #151 on: March 19, 2023, 06:28:47 PM »

According to a new projection by ANP Election Desk, BBB will gain another seat and go to 17 while D66 lose another seat and go to 5. This projection is based on the preliminary results of all municipalities, 95% of the counted votes in Amsterdam and the vote from abroad. Apparently there were some other changes in the meantime that I missed too (PVV keeping its 5th seat, Volt gaining only one).

Projection:
BBB 17 (+17), GL-PvdA 15 (+1), VVD 10 (-2), D66 5 (-2), PVV 5 (nc), CDA 5 (-4), PvdD 4 (+1), SP 3 (-1), JA21 3 (+3), FVD 2 (-10), CU 2 (-2), SGP 1 (-1), 50Plus 1 (-1), OSF 1 (nc), Volt 1 (+1).

Government: 22
Government+GL-PvdA: 37

Left/progressive opposition: 23
Coalition: 22
Right/conservative opposition: 28
50Plus and OSF unclassified

Rutte+GL-PvdA-Volt would still be a majority, but a very narrow one. VVD and CDA voters wouldn't exactly be thrilled about this.

The manageable conservative/populist parties have 21 seats. VVD/CDA/CU has 17, so that would be a workable group. 
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DavidB.
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« Reply #152 on: March 21, 2023, 08:58:03 PM »

The story of how D66 lost their 5th Senate seat is actually rather funny. In a precinct in Rotterdam, D66 received 58 votes and the PvdA 78. Some poor polling worker forgot to press "tab" and filled out 5878 votes for D66. This was noticed during a routine check, which meant D66 got almost 6,000 fewer votes than initially tabulated - which made a difference of one seat in the Provincial States of Zuid-Holland and then, due to the big weight of Zuid-Holland, also in the Senate; which may be decisive for whether the coalition + GL/PvdA receive a majority or not. All of this goes to show: voting matters...

There was also much talk about Rotterdam changing and gentrifying and "boboizing" after the "result" of both GL and D66 gaining and becoming #1 and #2 was published. Well, this process is still happening... but after correcting the mistake, D66 actually lost to GL, completely in line with the national result, and ended up coming third, being overtaken by the VVD.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #153 on: March 22, 2023, 06:02:22 PM »
« Edited: March 22, 2023, 06:06:03 PM by DavidB. »

Tensions within the coalition are rising. Only D66 stick to enshrining 2030 in law as nitrogen target, claiming they "keep their word" (regarding the coalition agreement) and "hope other parties do so too." The CDA has had crisis talks, which ended with Hoekstra staying on as party leader "provisionally" - not exactly a ringing endorsement... According to NRC, chances that Hoekstra leads the party into the next general election are "minimal". Behind closed doors, MPs are questioning Hoekstra's leadership and are angry that the CDA ministers fail to show a clear CDA profile, while their portfolios would provide them with the opportunity to do so.

Meanwhile, the coalition parties (except for the VVD) are fighting each other in parliament, with CDA MP Jaco Geurts claiming D66 is "putting the Netherlands on hold when it comes to housing construction" (aren't you in that same coalition...?) and he questions D66 MP Tjeerd de Groot's "mental faculties". Meanwhile, De Groot, one of the instigators of the farmers protests by being the loudest voice to reduce livestock by 50%, accuses CU MP Pieter Grinwis of making "illegal" proposals.

The coalition first refused GL leader Klaver's suggestion to debate the Provincial Election results, but after Klaver threatened to demand a roll call vote, the coalition parties caved. The debate will be held on April 4 and if there is no breakthrough on nitrogens within the coalition by then, this debate is bound to get very awkward. Time to stack up the popcorn.
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xelas81
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« Reply #154 on: March 22, 2023, 07:04:01 PM »

How would hypothetical referendum on nitrogen targets would go?
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DavidB.
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« Reply #155 on: March 23, 2023, 03:41:09 AM »

How would hypothetical referendum on nitrogen targets would go?
Depends on the targets, but the current ones: definitely against. Margin could be anywhere between 55-45 and 75-25 in favor of "no" (VVD and CDA are more in favor of these targets than most of their voters). But the referendum was abolished by the previous government.
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Death of a Salesman
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« Reply #156 on: March 23, 2023, 02:49:20 PM »

How would hypothetical referendum on nitrogen targets would go?
Depends on the targets, but the current ones: definitely against. Margin could be anywhere between 55-45 and 75-25 in favor of "no" (VVD and CDA are more in favor of these targets than most of their voters). But the referendum was abolished by the previous government.
It seems as if most CDA and VVD voters want a bourgeois right coalition. Is this also something preferred by a substantial fraction of CU voters, or would they side with D66 in preferring an agreement with PvdA-GL?
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DavidB.
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« Reply #157 on: March 23, 2023, 06:32:41 PM »
« Edited: March 23, 2023, 06:36:34 PM by DavidB. »

How would hypothetical referendum on nitrogen targets would go?
Depends on the targets, but the current ones: definitely against. Margin could be anywhere between 55-45 and 75-25 in favor of "no" (VVD and CDA are more in favor of these targets than most of their voters). But the referendum was abolished by the previous government.
It seems as if most CDA and VVD voters want a bourgeois right coalition. Is this also something preferred by a substantial fraction of CU voters, or would they side with D66 in preferring an agreement with PvdA-GL?
Their voters probably overwhelmingly support the nitrogen reduction targets, more so than VVD/CDA voters, but are also sympathetic to farmers, believe in compromising, and don't like the polarization D66 is bringing.

CU are in a difficult position. They have drifted very much leftwards on issues like climate/the environment and immigration, and in terms of political position they are closer to D66/PvdA/GL on most issues. However, "culturally" they are closer to VVD/CDA. And CU's most important problem with D66/PvdA/GL is "progressive vs. conservative" issues: drug legalization, prostitution, euthanasia, abortion etc. On all of this, cooperation with VVD and CDA is easier for CU. If need be, they could also cooperate with BBB; again, substantial policy differences but cultural proximity. JA21 would be very difficult, however - probably too difficult.
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Mike88
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« Reply #158 on: March 26, 2023, 06:28:56 AM »

First poll after the Provincial elections, massive BBB surge:

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Harlow
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« Reply #159 on: March 26, 2023, 08:51:50 AM »

Wow, PVV takes a big hit as well due to the BBB surge.
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Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #160 on: March 26, 2023, 08:57:20 AM »

Wow, PVV takes a big hit as well due to the BBB surge.
At least they are still in the top eight. Isn't "big hit" a relative term too?
hallo CDA? Ben je daar? Hallo?
(Hello CDA? Are you there? Hello?)
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Harlow
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« Reply #161 on: March 26, 2023, 09:32:07 AM »

Wow, PVV takes a big hit as well due to the BBB surge.
At least they are still in the top eight. Isn't "big hit" a relative term too?
hallo CDA? Ben je daar? Hallo?
(Hello CDA? Are you there? Hello?)
A big hit relative to their pre-provincial election polling. Nearly halved.
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Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #162 on: March 26, 2023, 09:49:36 AM »

Wow, PVV takes a big hit as well due to the BBB surge.
At least they are still in the top eight. Isn't "big hit" a relative term too?
hallo CDA? Ben je daar? Hallo?
(Hello CDA? Are you there? Hello?)
A big hit relative to their pre-provincial election polling. Nearly halved.
That is certainly true. I guess I'm picking on the CDA here.
On a sidenote, why is GL gaining?
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DavidB.
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« Reply #163 on: March 27, 2023, 10:21:03 AM »
« Edited: March 27, 2023, 10:31:14 AM by DavidB. »

This poll is basically the result of the PS election: all parties' Senate seat count *2 = this. If the coalition collapses, a BBB vs. PvdA/GL two-horse race scenario isn't unthinkable. Lots of parties face interesting questions in the coming months. Let's list the most relevant ones:

BBB: BBB need to choose between being cooperative on a provincial level and  risking to lose voters (and potentially elected officials); or taking a harder line, which will possibly cause massive electoral gains in the next General Election but which will make coalition building very difficult, and which may also risk them falling victim to the "you don't take responsibility" line by Rutte, which works very well with Dutch center-right voters and basically killed off the PVV before.

In the end, in our system, BBB will need to cooperate with CDA and VVD at some point if they want to get anything done. Also worth noting that BBB probably won too many seats for the sake of their own stability. Still, their future looks very bright, particularly if former CDA (and now Independent) MP Pieter Omtzigt joins them. If I had to bet on anyone as our next PM, I'd pick Omtzigt.

VVD: The VVD need to ride this storm out. They are in for a bludgeoning if elections take place soon, but Rutte has faced numerous crises and survived all of them. The VVD probably need to embrace 2035 as a target for the nitrogen emission reduction and hope D66 can accept this. They are helped by D66's abysmal polls.

The question is what leeway provincial VVD branches will get in forging coalitions with BBB - coalitions that possibly don't align with the national government's nitrogen policy. The biggest risk for the VVD: a BBB-PvdA/GL two-horse race campaign, which could happen both sooner and later.

It feels as if the national "mood" has changed and Rutte is "past his sell-by date", but he is a true political survivor. At some point his luck (or ability to navigate situations) will run out, but I wouldn't count him out at any point.

PvdA-GL: Things are starting to look better for the two left-wing parties. Their election result was underwhelming and in terms of vote total, they even had a slight net loss: 1+1 turned out to be 1.9, rather than 3. Still, "in the land of the blind, the one-eyed is king" - with so many small political groups, size matters and so does momentum.

I expect PvdA-GL to come up with a similar construction for the next parliamentary election: both parties running separate slates, whose elected officials will form one group, with one campaign and two co-leaders, presumably with one clear candidate for Prime Minister. With the VVD in trouble, this is the opportunity for PvdA-GL to go hard and force a two-horse race with BBB.

The big question is: who will be the PM candidate for PvdA-GL? Frans Timmermans is a potential candidate, but has a job until the summer next year - and does he want it? And does GL want him? It's not obvious the top job belongs to an old (and white) PvdA guy when GL is bigger both in the polls and in the Senate.

Other potential options are:

- Rotterdam mayor Ahmed Aboutaleb (+: statesmanlike stature, foreign background; -: not a good debater, has enemies, "good on paper, bad in practice", better at governing than at being a politician, PvdA)

- Amsterdam mayor Femke Halsema (+: woman; GL; liberal, can reach out to D66 voters; -: very elitist public image and thereby very vulnerable to this kind of attack, particularly coming from BBB; being in Amsterdam doesn't help; not a lot of friends in both PvdA and even GL)

- GL parliamentary leader Jesse Klaver (+: GL, foreign background, strong debater; -: not sure whether PvdA base will embrace him; man)

- Other, less likely potential options include PvdA parliamentary leader Attje Kuiken, PvdA Amsterdam leader Marjolein Moorman, former PvdA leader Lodewijk Asscher (but was killed off politically by GL over his involvement in the childcare benefits scandal...), and GL Senate leader Paul Rosenmöller.

CDA: In tatters. If they don't blow up the coalition, their voters will definitely flock to BBB. If they do blow up the coalition, their voters will probably still flock to BBB. After their big loss, it is quite incredible they are still one of the five biggest political forces in the Netherlands, which shows just how bad fragmentation is. Many parties here have a temporary problem, but the CDA faces an existential issue - they have governed for far too long without a profile. Wopke Hoekstra turns out to be a horrible leader: he looks like a consultant who could be in the VVD, or in D66, or even in JA21, but there is nothing "CDA" about him.

Part of this is about the inevitable trend of secularization and depillarization, but I believe it is too easy an excuse and in reality only a small part of the reason of the CDA's decline. Many Dutchmen could still vote for a CDA - just not this one, so devoid of ideas. Sybrand Buma's final attempt to salvage the party (by steering it into a more conservative direction) in 2017 was more notable and more successful than he received credit for.

I don't think the CDA will find the way up again. Too much infighting, too reliant on the wrong ideas. Their only chance (and it is a big one) is to beg Omtzigt to return and take over the leadership and cleanse the entire party from corrupted influences, but they are probably too stubborn to do so and will die off. Goodbye and good riddance, I am inclined to say.

D66: A party with a massive problem. Presenting Sigrid Kaag under the guise of "time for new leadership" (as opposed to Rutte's old leadership) in the 2021 election campaign was a massive success. Then, during the coalition negotiations that followed, she told Rutte: "our paths separate here". And then, she entered a coalition under his leadership. They extracted a very heavy price from the VVD and won the negotiations, which is now at the heart of the nitrogen reduction conflict: during the coalition talks, it already became clear that even 2035 would be a nearly unrealistic target, but still 2030 was agreed. I believe this can now be called a pyrrhic victory.

What to do now? Everybody knows that after the BBB win, 2030 is untenable. But will D66 accept this? If they do so, PvdA/GL will overtake them on the left and their voters will be inclined to follow. If D66 don't accept 2035, the coalition is likely to collapse, D66 are set to lose a lot because good luck with a new campaign based on "new leadership", and their voters may flock to PvdA/GL anyway. In the end, D66 were always going to be vulnerable on their left flank, being in government for six years without any other left-wing forces (counting out the ambiguous case of CU here).

PVV: I'm getting repetitive. But the PVV also has a serious problem. Losing once - to Forum, in 2019 - can be an accident. Losing twice - to BBB, this year - is a pattern. In the end, thinking the PVV would bounce back so easily (which I did) was too easy to think and this conclusion should have been drawn after the 2021 GE already, when the PVV lost too, despite Forum having (virtually) collapsed already.

The PVV's problems are quite clear. There is a big pool of voters who sympathize with them, but few people who are really loyal and stick to them. Wilders is also unable to receive any momentum during an election campaign, which is due to several factors: they have no membership, so no money (and no subsidies) for campaigning, which are crucial in an increasingly crowded field; Wilders boycotts most media; Wilders is excluded by most parties and therefore building a coalition with him is unrealistic, which is why a vote for him is seen as a lost vote.

The biggest problem, however, is the crowding on the right. Competing with Forum hurt the PVV; then, competing with Forum and JA21 hurt the PVV; now, competing with Forum, JA21, BBB and BVNL is hurting them even more. BBB have momentum on offer and are "the true protest vote", JA21 have coalitionability on offer, Forum have being the anti-system party ("the real alternative", in their words) on offer.

None of this will change - so then the PVV should. If Wilders doesn't change his tune, the PVV will turn from one of the biggest poles in the Dutch political spectrum into just another splinter, just another voice in the crowd. Is he able and willing to do so? Probably not.

PvdD: Finally a party without a problem. Under the leadership of Esther Ouwehand, the PvdD has become less of a generic pro-animal/anti-system party and more of a typical hard-left party (of the alternative variety) focused on animal justice and fighting climate change as radically as possible; probably best comparable to the Danish Alternative party. And this is a success. They keep growing. Last year, they also entered a coalition on the local level for the first time.

The question is: what will be the next step? Coalitions are always formed somewhere in the center. The maths simply don't add up for the left. This means actual government cooperation is unlikely. The PvdD's pitch is that they don't compromise - on a national level, I'm inclined to believe them. This means that at some point they will probably hit a ceiling. But with climate remaining a very salient issue, they still have room to grow. An interesting question: will good polls for GL/PvdA hurt the PvdD's numbers?

SP: Back to a party with a problem. The SP keeps declining and party leader Lilian Marijnissen isn't able to stop the bleeding. Her problem: the SP is proven "right" on many issues, with other parties moving toward the SP's positions on themes like neoliberalism, but no one will flock to the SP as a result.

With more "internationalist socialist" figures having left the party, Marijnissen is moving more and more into the "left-conservative" lane, but faces competition with (more centrist, but with a "social" face) BBB here. The SP has shifted back towards more criticism of immigration (but mostly labor immigration), but climate remains a more difficult issue to navigate.

If I were the SP, I'd pick either lane; unabashedly internationalist socialist, or full Danish Social Democrats style. It's clear where my preference is, but the first option would work too. The confusion doesn't. Doctrinally, their stance is probably "correct", but it doesn't win you any voters.

One last thing, which is less relevant electorally but still interesting to note: with the departure of the "internationalist socialist" types, the "activist" types who are more strictly socialist have left too, which has made the SP a lot more supportive of NATO and very outspokenly supportive of Ukraine. A couple of years ago, with Harry van Bommel and Sadet Karabulut in parliament, this would have been more difficult to imagine.

I discussed the ChristenUnie a few posts above and will stop here: the other parties are too small and their movement in any direction won't cause a substantial change in the Dutch political landscape. A potential exception would be a serious compromise by BBB on the theme of immigration, which could cause JA21 (who gained, but did much better in the polls and have become the "victim" of BBB's success) to grow further.
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Harlow
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« Reply #164 on: March 28, 2023, 09:08:04 PM »


Fantastic and thorough analysis here--and incredible how there's still a decent chunk of parties you didn't get to. The fractured and malleable landscape is what makes Dutch politics so interesting to me.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #165 on: March 29, 2023, 05:53:56 AM »
« Edited: March 29, 2023, 05:59:12 AM by DavidB. »

Following exploratory talks with all parties, Zuid-Holland coalition investigator Fred Teeven suggests the formation of a coalition with BBB, VVD, CDA, PvdA and GL in the most populous province of the country - without D66.

If this doesn't work, his second suggestion is a right-wing coalition with BBB, VVD, CDA, PVV and JA21. Apparently, as was noted by Teeven explicitly, this option isn't excluded by any of these parties. The fact that the option to govern with the PVV is even on the table would have been unthinkable four years ago.
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Mike88
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« Reply #166 on: March 29, 2023, 05:09:24 PM »

Ipsos poll:

Vote share % and seats: (compared with the previous poll)

17.9% BBB, 28 seats (+14)
17.2% VVD, 27 (-2)
  7.8% PPV, 12 (-4)
  7.7% D66, 12 (-3)
  7.4% PvdA, 12 (+2)
  7.0% GL, 11 (+1)
  5.1% PvdD, 8 (-1)
  4.9% SP, 7 (-1)
  4.6% CDA, 7 (-2)
  4.3% JA21, 6 (-3)
  3.0% FvD, 4 (nc)
  2.9% Volt, 4 (nc)
  2.5% CU, 4 (-1)
  2.4% DENK, 3 (nc)
  2.3% SGP, 3 (nc)
  0.9% 50+, 1 (nc)
  0.8% BIJ1, 1 (nc)
  1.3% Others, 0 (nc)

Rutte government: 50 seats (-8)

Poll conducted between 24 and 27 March 2023. Polled 1,005 voters.
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« Reply #167 on: March 29, 2023, 09:53:44 PM »

Ipsos poll:

Vote share % and seats: (compared with the previous poll)

17.9% BBB, 28 seats (+14)
17.2% VVD, 27 (-2)
  7.8% PPV, 12 (-4)
  7.7% D66, 12 (-3)
  7.4% PvdA, 12 (+2)
  7.0% GL, 11 (+1)
  5.1% PvdD, 8 (-1)
  4.9% SP, 7 (-1)
  4.6% CDA, 7 (-2)
  4.3% JA21, 6 (-3)
  3.0% FvD, 4 (nc)
  2.9% Volt, 4 (nc)
  2.5% CU, 4 (-1)
  2.4% DENK, 3 (nc)
  2.3% SGP, 3 (nc)
  0.9% 50+, 1 (nc)
  0.8% BIJ1, 1 (nc)
  1.3% Others, 0 (nc)

Rutte government: 50 seats (-8)

Poll conducted between 24 and 27 March 2023. Polled 1,005 voters.

IIRC one needs 76 seats, so not good for Rutte. If his government falls below that can he make another deal or does this poll show someone else with a viable path to government?
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DavidB.
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« Reply #168 on: March 30, 2023, 06:55:54 AM »
« Edited: March 30, 2023, 07:25:31 AM by DavidB. »

Nope, no path to a government on these numbers - but after a nationwide campaign these numbers will look different anyway. But an Israel/Bulgaria scenario isn't far away.

As for polls - Kantar hasn't published any new ones for almost a year and was absent in the runup to the PS/Senate election, so I think we can assume they dropped out. Press F to pay respects. Over the last years, EenVandaag/Ipsos has had a pretty substantial pro-VVD bias and tends to underpoll "populist" parties. De Hond (Peil) has the most wild swings, but usually has the trends correct. He is an outspoken, controversial figure in the Netherlands, but he is good at his job and his polls aren't worse than the others, although his house effect is that he underpolls the VVD (and used to overpoll "populist" parties, but not anymore). Before the 2021 GE, I&O had a left-wing bias, but they seem to have fixed the problem. Their "balls to the wall" poll on the Sunday before the PS23 election looked extreme, but was completely correct; BBB momentum made the outcome even better for them, but that doesn't mean the poll was incorrect. So I'd say all three remaining pollsters are good, but I'd rate I&O and Peil above Ipsos.

That said, I'd normally expect the VVD to do a little better in a GE poll vis-a-vis the PS election because of higher turnout in a first-order election among low-propensity blue collar voters who either vote VVD or not at all, a demographic I mentioned earlier right before the election. In the general elections of 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2021, Rutte won 1.9 to 2.5 million voters every time (2.5 in 2012). In the PS elections of 2011, 2015, 2019 and 2023, this number was 860k to 1.3 million (1.3 in 2011). In local and European elections, the dropoff is even worse. Of course, turnout in second-order elections is lower in general, but the VVD's dropoff is highly disproportionally bad for them. All of this goes to show that the VVD cannot be underestimated based on second-order elections. But if the VVD is truly going to lose, we're in unchartered territory compared to the entire Rutte era and it's unsure what this demographic will do.

--

A different subject: NRC had a highly fascinating article on the Senate election. All parties have their "mathematicians" lined up to think of striking deals with others to optimize their outcome. Bottom line: if the government plays its game well, it can win one and perhaps even two more seats in the Senate by tactical voting; this would require CDA and CU to receive votes from VVD and D66. Even one more seat would make a difference for the coalition, as they have a majority together with PvdA/GL in that case. BBB, PVV and SGP are at risk of losing their last virtual seat.

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DavidB.
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« Reply #169 on: March 30, 2023, 07:09:16 PM »
« Edited: March 31, 2023, 06:07:43 AM by DavidB. »

EU Commissioner for the Environment Virginijus Sinkevicius sent a letter to the Dutch government stating that the EU doesn't accept any delay in the Netherlands reaching its nitrogen targets. He did so on the day Nature & Nitrogen Minister Van der Wal (VVD) - the one who insisted on no delay on election night - visited Brussels. His letter was sent in Dutch (edit: apparently not). And EU regulation says nothing about specific nitrogen emission reduction targets, but only about the recovery of nature and the increase of biodiversity. 2030 or 2035 aren't EU targets.

Something smells very fishy here. You don't have to be a conspiracy theorist to think that maybe his letter wasn't even written in Brussels, but in The Hague. Independent MP Pieter Omtzigt already filed a transparency request to the EU regarding all information about the letter and the meeting between Sinkevicius and Van der Wal.

Even if Van der Wal only made suggestions with regard to the content of the letter, this is explosive - it would be the perfect alibi for the CDA to pull the plug.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #170 on: March 31, 2023, 10:44:18 AM »
« Edited: March 31, 2023, 11:00:16 AM by DavidB. »

Here we go. In Friesland, coalition "explorer" Chris Stoffer (SGP) calls on the national government to drop the proposed new 50% nitrogen reduction target in 2030, NRC reports. In a statement, Stoffer notes Friesland will become "ungovernable" if this target is pushed through, as "nearly all" parties refuse to abide by this target but also don't want to break the law. My expectation: we will see this in many more provinces.

For BBB, "2030" and forced buyouts of farmers are a red line in every province - and in Friesland it seems most other parties agree. BBB Friesland leader Abel Kooistra says he "didn't ask" Stoffer to add this call on the national government to his final advise, but that he completely agrees.

In Friesland, BBB is now set to form a government with PvdA, CDA and ChristenUnie. Different options were possible, but this combination was deemed the best due to its broad ideological scope and experience in the provincial government, which BBB itself lacks.

--

Peil.nl polled preferences for different nitrogen scenarios. Left above = speed up 50% reduction target to 2030, right above = keep 2035 as target year, left below = after 2035, right below = drop 50% reduction target entirely.

Overwhelming numbers of D66, GL, PvdD, Volt and PvdA voters support 2030 - interesting that D66 voters are more "extreme" on this than PvdD voters. But a plurality of VVD, CU (although particularly divided...) and a big majority of CDA voters want to keep 2035. A plurality of BBB voters want to drop the targets entirely, but it seems their base is quite divided - just like the public in general (allen = all voters). But all in all, 67% want to keep 2035 or are even more "lenient" when it comes to nitrogen emissions, while only 30% support the government target of 2030 which was in the coalition agreement and is still supposed to become the law.

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DavidB.
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« Reply #171 on: March 31, 2023, 01:56:19 PM »
« Edited: April 01, 2023, 07:37:49 AM by DavidB. »

Coalition finished crisis negotiations. CDA threatened to leave the government. Tensions are eased now. CDA demand renegotiations on nitrogens. D66 didn’t want government to collapse. Government agreed on a temporary “break” in adopting new nitrogen legislation, awaiting provincial government negotiations. Then renegotiations of the nitrogen section in the coalition agreement will follow. Which begs the confusing question: are provinces leading now? Or will they have to readjust their policy later again? The latter seems difficult to imagine. And then this is a CDA win.

In Zeeland, the coalition explorer recommends a right-wing coalition of BBB, SGP, VVD and CDA. Would be good news for nuclear energy: Borssele-II should be built here and all these parties are pro-nuclear.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #172 on: April 01, 2023, 03:16:04 AM »

D66 are a cucked party episode 754. They seem to be the big losers from this situation now, which is no mean feat given CDA are in a more existential crisis.

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DavidB.
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« Reply #173 on: April 01, 2023, 07:46:17 AM »

D66 are a cucked party episode 754. They seem to be the big losers from this situation now, which is no mean feat given CDA are in a more existential crisis.
It's a bad look, but the remainder of the coalition agreement is still very much a document with D66's fingerprints most prominently on it, particularly the sections on climate. And as for nitrogens, even 2035 was deemed "too ambitious" before the negotiations of this government started. D66 just bit off more than they can chew, which produced this BBB victory. Now, they can spin their U-turn as "the responsible choice" to keep the government in office, as opposed to GL's "idealistic choices without any effect in the real world", which led then to never being part of any government. They can also say new elections probably wouldn't have led to a more "progressive" new government, looking at the probable Senate configuration. And they wouldn't be wrong.

The biggest argument for D66 telling CDA to shove it is that GL-PvdA aren't ready for elections, which provides D66 with the opportunity to push for Kaagmentum once more. But it's a big risk: their attempt to do this failed in the PS election too.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #174 on: April 02, 2023, 06:08:43 PM »
« Edited: April 02, 2023, 06:17:33 PM by DavidB. »

Peil.nl today. BBB 2 seats short of the entire coalition. Hard not to think De Hond is underpolling VVD by a lot here, though, and perhaps CDA too:


The government wants to reduce the VAT rate on fruits and vegetables from the high rate (21%) to the low rate (9%) but is unable to do so because the IT systems that the Tax Authority runs on hail from the 80s - according to independent auditors, the government is at risk of losing hundreds of millions in tax income if these systems aren't replaced as soon as possible. Weirdly, it does seem possible to increase VAT on soft drinks. Deputy Minister Maarten van Ooijen (ChristenUnie), who seems to live for sin taxes, will now levy the high VAT rate instead of the low VAT rate on soft drinks. Unlikely collateral damage: oat milk and other replacements for actual milk are considered soft drinks and will therefore be subject to a whopping 196% tax increase. Not that those buying oat milk can't afford it - but still interesting, to say the least.
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