New England and urban-rural polarization

[Asenath Waite]

It’s interesting that urban-rural polarization has almost continuously increased over the past several decades yet decreased in New England at the same time. It used to be that Boston was heavily Democratic while rural Massachusetts was swingy, Vermont was R leaning and in 1984 New Hampshire was Reagan’s best state. There’s probably a variety of reasons for this, like it being the most educated rural white region, New England’s rural white working class being more socially liberal then the average and an influx of counter-cultural types but it is interesting how the whole region is kind of a national outlier in this respect.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

It’s interesting that urban-rural polarization has almost continuously increased over the past several decades yet decreased in New England at the same time. It used to be that Boston was heavily Democratic while rural Massachusetts was swingy, Vermont was R leaning and in 1984 New Hampshire was Reagan’s best state. There’s probably a variety of reasons for this, like it being the most educated rural white region, New England’s rural white working class being more socially liberal then the average and an influx of counter-cultural types but it is interesting how the whole region is kind of a national outlier in this respect.

Rural New England has a lot of transplants from the cities, particularly with the COVID Pandemic.

[Make America Grumpy Again]

To add to that, New England is very different from the rest of the US politically, despite having fairly similar demographics. Politically the region is more similar to Canada or even some European countries.

[Asenath Waite]

To add to that, New England is very different from the rest of the US politically, despite having fairly similar demographics. Politically the region is more similar to Canada or even some European countries.

I’ve often felt that Boston has more of a European feel then most other major American cities.

[Asenath Waite]

It’s interesting that urban-rural polarization has almost continuously increased over the past several decades yet decreased in New England at the same time. It used to be that Boston was heavily Democratic while rural Massachusetts was swingy, Vermont was R leaning and in 1984 New Hampshire was Reagan’s best state. There’s probably a variety of reasons for this, like it being the most educated rural white region, New England’s rural white working class being more socially liberal then the average and an influx of counter-cultural types but it is interesting how the whole region is kind of a national outlier in this respect.

Rural New England has a lot of transplants from the cities, particularly with the COVID Pandemic.

This is true but the trend of rural New England gradually coming to vote like urban New England long predates this.

[CookieDamage]

The issue is that rural white NE, especially Vermont, is not as evangelical or ultra religious as other rural white areas of the US. A lot of secular liberals, hippies, and Jews from NY and MA moved to Vermont over the later 20th century, so that's why it's as blue as it is. Western Mass is also very liberal as well.

However, if you look at the 2016 trend map, you'd see New England isn't immune from the rural-urban polarization. I'd say Maine is relatively similar to the national trend. The urbanized coast is blue while the interior rural areas are red (and have been getting more and more GOP). Western Mass trended solidly republican in 2016, as did rural CT and NH. The urban/suburban areas, comparatively, trended Dem.

[Sol]

The issue is that rural white NE, especially Vermont, is not as evangelical or ultra religious as other rural white areas of the US.

This is the key I think. New England, both in rural and urban areas, is quite secular--and religious people are likely to be Catholic, and if not Catholic, mainline Protestant. New England is the least evangelical part of the country, and that applies to rural areas too.

In any case, a lot of New England is actually not that rural--virtually all of Connecticut and Rhode Island and most of Eastern Massachusetts and Southeastern New Hampshire are functionally urban or suburban. And of course you have small cities as well, like Portland or Burlington, outside of those larger cities. These places voting Democratic shouldn't be a surprise.

Outside of these areas, you sort of have to take it region by region. The Berkshires and Pioneer Valley are a dense network of postindustrial towns and also a lot of them have prestigious colleges--so unsurprisingly they have a certain rural hippie element, a bit like Albemarle County or the rurals around Madison, on top of an already vigorous union presence. And of course Western Mass is near both NYC and Boston in the grand scheme of things so if you're a left-leaning person who want to live a rural lifestyle it's an obvious location to move to.

Vermont is a bit similar, except with a weaker union element but IIRC an even stronger "back to the land" movement. There are similar dynamics at play in western New Hampshire. In both NH and VT, there are rural areas with a weaker college/hippy element, and those places tend to be closer--but usually still Dem-leaning due to the SECULAR/Yankee factor, at least in less remote areas.

Cape Cod and the Islands are heavily dominated by vacationers from major cities or inner suburbs, who are generally Dem leaning these days. Coastal Maine is similar too, plus some colleges, etc, and IIRC it was also somewhat industrial in parts.

That said, there has been some growing erosion in certain rural areas of New England. Trump gained quite a bit in traditionally Democratic ex-industrial areas in Northern Maine and New Hampshire, and Republicans have never quite lost strength in some especially remote regions, like the Northeast Kingdom, the Lakes District of New Hampshire, and rural northern Maine.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Farm size, farm employment and the size of the agricultural sector in general is among the lowest in the US. The rural economy of New England is markedly more industrial with logging, fishing, paper mills, and services like tourism and conservation. I would imagine that explains a lot.

[Asenath Waite]

The issue is that rural white NE, especially Vermont, is not as evangelical or ultra religious as other rural white areas of the US.

This is the key I think. New England, both in rural and urban areas, is quite secular--and religious people are likely to be Catholic, and if not Catholic, mainline Protestant. New England is the least evangelical part of the country, and that applies to rural areas too.

In any case, a lot of New England is actually not that rural--virtually all of Connecticut and Rhode Island and most of Eastern Massachusetts and Southeastern New Hampshire are functionally urban or suburban. And of course you have small cities as well, like Portland or Burlington, outside of those larger cities. These places voting Democratic shouldn't be a surprise.

Outside of these areas, you sort of have to take it region by region. The Berkshires and Pioneer Valley are a dense network of postindustrial towns and also a lot of them have prestigious colleges--so unsurprisingly they have a certain rural hippie element, a bit like Albemarle County or the rurals around Madison, on top of an already vigorous union presence. And of course Western Mass is near both NYC and Boston in the grand scheme of things so if you're a left-leaning person who want to live a rural lifestyle it's an obvious location to move to.

Vermont is a bit similar, except with a weaker union element but IIRC an even stronger "back to the land" movement. There are similar dynamics at play in western New Hampshire. In both NH and VT, there are rural areas with a weaker college/hippy element, and those places tend to be closer--but usually still Dem-leaning due to the SECULAR/Yankee factor, at least in less remote areas.

Cape Cod and the Islands are heavily dominated by vacationers from major cities or inner suburbs, who are generally Dem leaning these days. Coastal Maine is similar too, plus some colleges, etc, and IIRC it was also somewhat industrial in parts.

That said, there has been some growing erosion in certain rural areas of New England. Trump gained quite a bit in traditionally Democratic ex-industrial areas in Northern Maine and New Hampshire, and Republicans have never quite lost strength in some especially remote regions, like the Northeast Kingdom, the Lakes District of New Hampshire, and rural northern Maine.

Ironically the parts of rural Maine that swung to Trump are quite secular as well, in fact (I can’t remember which) but one of the counties he won is actually one of the least religious in the US. I think this speaks to his particular appeal to secular cultural conservatives, probably the ideological sub-group in the electorate that’s swung the hardest to the GOP over the past decade.