Parliamentary America: 2016 and Beyond

[S019]

So, before the Timeline gets started, here's some basic background on major changes in this timeline:

An amendment to the Constitution to establish parliamentarianism was passed in 2014, and will take effect in 2016

Contents of said amendment:

The presidency is abolished.
The Senate is expanded based on the Wyoming rule.
Primaries have been abolished and replaced with candidate selections.
The electoral system of the House has been changed from FPTP to IRV and the Senate has been changed from FPTP to party lists.
All Senators are now elected on the same ballot every 4 years. A party receives a proportional amount of Senators to the amount of votes it received.
The new executive shall be determined by whichever party leader can get a majority in the House of Representatives. This person shall be the Prime Minister, the prime minister can be either a Representative, a Senator, or a First Minister of a state, any Cabinet officials must also hold one of these offices.
Governorships will be abolished at the next general election at the state level and replaced by whichever party can receive a majority in the state lower house, the leader of a party/coalition that receives a majority in the state lower house is now known as the First Minister. States remain free to set their own electoral methods.
Gerrymandering shall be outlawed beginning at the 2020 Census, and districts will be drawn by independent commissions. Current districts will remain in place until the 2020 Census, but they may be subject to litigation.
The District of Columbia will have representation in both the Senate and House proportional to its population.

Now, for some background:

Barack Obama is still President as this amendment has not yet taken effect fully. Just like real life, he will not run again, and the Democrats select Hillary Clinton as his replacement. The Republican nomination is one of the major divergences from real life so far in this timeline. Jeb Bush, the real life early GOP favorite, captures the Republican nomination with Marco Rubio being the runner up. The issues being discussed in the campaign are pretty similar to 2016 in real-life, healthcare, taxes, the vacant Supreme Court seat, terrorism, foreign policy, and opinions of the Obama presidency in general. Another major divergence is less focus on immigration and trade than in 2016, due to Bush being more similar to Clinton in his views on these issues than Trump was. Bush will be running on the Republican Senate list in Florida and Clinton will be running on the Democratic Senate list in New York (victory is assured for both candidates on the list). This timeline will be starting on Election Night and continuing until well I hope to take this to at least 2024.

CNN Election Night 2016

Wolf Blitzer: We are now just two hours away from poll closings on this Election Night in 2016, the first election under the new electoral system. Let's head over to John King and the Magic Wall. So John King, now the Democrats or Republicans need to capture a majority of House seats to win government. Walk us through the path for both parties.

John King: Well to begin with, to clarify to our viewers these elections will be taking place under congressional lines that were largely passed after the Republican wave in 2010. Many speculate this could give an advantage to Governor Bush, but let's just look at where we start with our CNN House Map.



So coming in, the Republicans had 247 seats and the Democrats had 189 seats. The Republicans have 231 seats leaning towards them and the Democrats have 182 leaning towards them. So with 219 seats needed for a majority, the Republicans would have that with just the seats leaning towards them, if they held them all. However, that might be easier said than done. There are lots of seats like FL-27 and WA-08 where the Democrats would absolutely win a generic ballot, but strong Republican incumbents are keeping them in the leaning Republican column. In fact, Clinton was in Seattle on Saturday trying to make the case to voters there that a vote for the Democratic candidate is a vote for her. Time will tell if that type of messaging worked. Of course, the Democrats have their own share of problems such as several vulnerable seats, especially in Minnesota, where they could lose three seats. The Democrats are banking on their incumbents saving them in some of these seats. CNN had a poll around a week ago in Minnesota's 8th, this is the Iron Range, there is a strong union vote  here, and this type of seat is not supposed to be competitive, even though Democrats did lose this one in 2010. Clinton trails Bush by a margin of 52-46 here, but Rick Nolan, the Democratic incumbent is tied with his Republican challenger, 48-48. Now let's compare that to WA-08, Clinton was here a few days ago, and she does indeed lead Bush 50-48 here, but Dave Reichert, the Republican has a 54-44 lead over his Democratic challenger. Representative Reichert is very popular in this seat and Republican over performances like this may be indeed what does in the Democrats' chances of forming government. But now, let's go over to the Senate, which very much does operate like a generic ballot. If we pull up the CNN Senate map, you'll see it's a dead heat, and it's going to come down to who can win some swing states, but also the margins in some landslide states.



Note: The Democrats should have 265, since I made this map without accounting for DC (one senator), the Republicans should still have 259.

So, the Democrats actually with a slight edge in the Senate, but it could come down to those battlegrounds, or possibly even the third parties, and even if the Republicans hold on in the House, they could lose the Senate. The Democrats may feel that they've already lost, but there's definitely cause for optimism if you're a Democrat.

2 Hours later:

Wolf Blitzer: It is now 6:00 and polls are closing in parts of Indiana and Kentucky. The first results are about to come in from this truly historic campaign. Stand by for some projections.

Wolf Blitzer: We can project that the Republicans will win Indiana's 3rd District, Indiana's 4th District, Indiana's 5th District, Indiana's 6th District, and Indiana's 9th District. We can also project that the Republicans will win Kentucky's 4th District and Kentucky's 5th District. We can also project that Democrats will win Indiana's 7th District. It is too close to call in Indiana's 2nd District and Kentucky's 6th District. So that gives us 7 seats for the Republicans and 1 for the Democrats, so the Republicans with a very, very early lead. Now, let's go over to panel with Jake Tapper and Dana Bash. So far, the results seem as we expected.

Jake Tapper: Yes, indeed, but that's the key, "so far." This election is going to be decided in big states that have yet to close like Minnesota, like Florida, like California.

Dana Bash: Yes, the Democrats did not get any unexpected wins in safe Republican districts, which is what most of what just closed was. We did not learn much yet that we did not already know.

Wolf Blitzer: We could be in for a long night here on CNN, and we will be back after a quick break.

Current map (for reference):

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Cool!

Does this mean the Senate is bigger than the House?

[S019]

Wolf Blitzer: It is now 7 PM on the East Coast and that means we have several states closing, including the swing state of Virginia and most of Florida.

We can make some projections. We can project that Indiana's 2nd District and Indiana's 8th District will go to the Republicans. We can also project that Kentucky's 1st District and Kentucky's 2nd District will go to the Republicans. We can project that Republicans will win Virginia's 5th District, Virginia's 6th District, and Virginia's 9th District. We can also project that Republicans will win South Carolina's 1st District, South Carolina's 2nd District, South Carolina's 3rd District, South Carolina's 4th District, South Carolina's 5th District, and South Carolina's 7th District. We can also project that Republicans will win Georgia's 1st District, Georgia's 3rd District, Georgia's 8th District, Georgia's 9th District, Georgia's 10th District, Georgia's 11th District, Georgia's 12th District, and Georgia's 14th District. We can also project that Republicans will win Florida's 3rd District, Florida's 4th District, Florida's 6th District, Florida's 8th District, Florida's 11th District, Florida's 12th District, Florida's 15th District, Florida's 16th District, Florida's 17th District, Florida's 19th District, and Florida's 25th District. We can also make some projections for the Democrats, including the first gains of the night. We can project that Democrats will win Indiana's 1st District. We can project that Democrats will win Kentucky's 3rd District. We can also project that Democrats will win Virginia's 3rd District, Virginia's 8th District, and Virginia's 11th District. We can also project that Democrats will win Virginia's 4th District, this a gain for the Democrats, the district was previously held by Republican Randy Forbes who chose not to run here again. This is a pickup for the Democrats and the first pickup of the night. We can also project that Democrats will win South Carolina's 6th District. We can also project that Democrats will win Georgia's 2nd District, Georgia's 4th District, Georgia's 5th District, and Georgia's 13th District. We can also project that the Democrats will win Florida's 5th District, Florida's 9th District, Florida's 14th District, Florida's 20th District, Florida's 21st District, Florida's 22nd District, Florida's 23rd District, and Florida's 24th District. We can also project that Democrats will win Florida's 10th District, their second pickup of the night, incumbent Daniel Webster chose not to run here again. The Democrats get their second pickup of the night. We have several races where we cannot yet make a projection. It is too early to call in Virginia's 1st District, and it is too close to call in Virginia's 2nd, 7th, and 10th Districts. It is too close to call in Georgia's 6th and 7th Districts. It is too close to call in Florida's 7th, 13th, 18th, 26th, and 27th Districts. This gives us 39 seats for the Republicans and 21 for the Democrats. Let's head over to John King and the magic wall, John, some key seats just closed including Virginia's 10th and Florida's 26th and 27th. The Democrats believe winning all three of these seats are key to their hope of a majority.

Map (for reference):


(Note: Vermont was also called for the Democrats at this time, but I forgot to include it on the map)

John King: Yes, let's go down to South Florida first, Florida's 27th, entirely in Miami Dade County, we only have 10% in, but you see a lead of around 7 for Rep. Ros-Letihnen, 53-47. Let's jump to the neighboring 26th, you see a lead of around 2 for Rep. Curbelo, 51-49. It's early, but these two are promising to be the competitive races that we thought they'd be. If we go back to 2012, Barack Obama won the 27th by around 7 and the 26th by around 12. Democrats were really hoping they'd get these two, but still a long time to go. Now, if we go up to Virginia's 10th, this was actually a Mitt Romney seat 4 years ago and it voted for Ed Gillespie by a pretty significant margin two years ago, but Clinton and the Democrats have campaigned here heavily, and if Democrats do win here, Loudoun County is going to be key. It had been Republican since 1964 until Barack Obama flipped it in 2008 and won it again in 2012. Now, the Republicans have not been resting easy here either, Bush actually spent the last day of the campaign in Leesburg before flying back to Florida. Also Barbara Comstock, the incumbent here, she's no stranger to tough races, she ran plenty of them when she was in the state legislature. But to go back to Loudoun County, it's a rapidly growing county, and many of those new voters are Democrats. This is really a microcosm of the story across the country, Clinton is going to look to build on Obama's gains in historically Republican but rapidly growing suburbs like Loudoun County and Bush is going to try to reduce some of that bleeding and keep these places red. It's going to be a very similar story in many of the tossups on our map, whether it be in places like California or Pennsylvania. Northern Virginia is known for counting very slowly, so it'll likely be a while before we have results from this one.

Wolf Blitzer: and now standing by, we have reporters from the Clinton and Bush campaigns to get their thoughts as the results begin to trickle in.

Reporter: I'm here at Clinton HQ and so far they're telling me it's about what they expected, which they are noting is not good for them. Clinton's team is aware that they came into the election as the underdog, and they needed some surprise wins. They are watching those Georgia seats with a watchful eye, they told me. They don't think they can knock-off Rep. Woodall or Rep. Price, but these early results have surprised them a bit, and makes them suspect that the race is tracking a little bit closer to the generic topline than expected. As for the Florida and Virginia races, all they told me was "We don't know, we're going to settle in, and wait for results."

Wolf Blitzer: Thank you and now we'll get a report from the Bush HQ

Reporter: The Bush Camp has made many of the same observations that we just heard that the Clinton Camp was making. They are a bit surprised by the closeness of the races in Georgia. As for the South Florida races, the campaign believes that they turned out just enough of their voters to narrowly hold on to both of them, but the Democrats' Senate ticket is doing far better in South Florida than they had expected, and that is surely starting to raise some alarm here at Bush HQ. When I asked them about the Senate, they said, it is way too early to make any judgements about it, but they do remain cautiously optimistic about their chances at a House majority.

Wolf Blitzer: Thank you both, and now we head over to the panel, more results have come in, and perhaps a little bit of a surprise in some of them

Dana Bash: Absolutely, the House races are tracking far closer to the Senate ballot and the overall generic ballot than we had anticipated. It suggests incumbency may not mean much in some of these key races and that has good news and bad news for both parties.

Jake Tapper: I think you really hit the nail on the head there. This is obviously good news for Democratic prospects in seats like WA-08 and FL-27, but just as equally it is awful news for their hopes of holding onto seats like MN-08 or PA-17, and it's basically the reverse for the Republicans. But a lot of the country is still yet to close, and it could still be that the Republicans come out with a House majority and lose all of VA-10, FL-26, and FL-27, but a Democratic upset had always been on the table, perhaps that's where we're heading.

Dana Bash: The Republicans still absolutely look favored, but really the credit has to go to the Democrats and Hillary Clinton, their candidate had record-low unfavorables and was running against the tide of trying to run for a 3rd term for their party. The fact that her campaigning means we could be seeing the tide in South Florida taking down popular, entrenched incumbents like Ros-Letihnen speaks to her effectiveness in campaigning.

Jake Tapper: I think it's interesting that you touched on that point of effectiveness in campaigning, because both candidates were largely seen as ineffective and out-of-touch by the electorate, so this did largely develop into a generic ballot-type race. Of course, this was the type of race that Clinton with her record-low unfavorables could win, but coming into the campaign, the consensus had been that this type of campaign meant that candidates in each individual district would matter far more if no one had particularly strong feelings for either Clinton or Bush. Also Bush had narrowly but consistently led on that generic ballot and that was also confirmed by the Republican advantage in polling until Election Day.

Around 15 Minutes Later

Wolf Blitzer: It is now 7:30 PM on the East Coast and that means polls will be closing in three states, including Ohio and North Carolina, and we can make some projections.

CNN can project that the Republicans will win Ohio's 2nd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 10th, 12th, 14th, and 16th Districts. CNN can project that Republicans will win West Virginia's 1st and 3rd Districts. CNN can project that Republicans will win North Carolina's 3rd, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 10th, and 11th districts. We can also project that the Republicans will win Kentucky's 6th District. We can also make some projections for the Democrats. CNN can project that Democrats will win Ohio's 3rd, 9th, and 11th districts. CNN can also project that Democrats will win North Carolina's 1st, 4th, and 12th districts. It is too close to call in Ohio's 1st and 13th district. It is too early to call in West Virginia's 2nd district. It is too close to call in North Carolina's 2nd, 9th, and 13th districts. This gives us 60 seats for the Republicans and 27 for the Democrats.

Map (for reference):


(Note: Vermont was also called for the Democrats at this time, but I forgot to include it on the map)


Around 30 Minutes Later

Wolf Blitzer: We are just seconds away from the 8 PM poll closings, polls will be closing in several large states including Illinois, Pennsylvania, and most of Texas, and we will be able to make some projections.

CNN can project that Republicans will win Texas' 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 8th, 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th, 17th, 19th, 21st, 25th, 26th, 27th, 31st, 32nd, and 36th Districts. We can project that the Republicans will win Oklahoma's 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th districts. We can project that the Republicans will win Kansas' 1st and 2nd districts. We can project Missouri's 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th, and 8th districts will go to the Republicans. We can project Illinois' 12th, 14th, 15th, and 16th districts will go to the Republicans. We can project Michigan's 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 7th, and 10th districts will go to the Republicans. We can project Tennessee's 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th, and 8th districts will go to the Republicans. We can also project Mississippi's 1st, 3rd, and 4th districts will go to the Republicans. We can project Alabama's 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th districts will go to Republicans. We can project Florida's 1st and 2nd districts will go to the Republicans. We can project Maryland's first district will go to the Republicans. We can project Pennsylvania's 3rd, 4th, 5th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th, 15th, and 18th districts will go to the Republicans. We can project that Republicans will win New Jersey's 4th districts. We can also project that Republicans will win Virginia's 1st district and West Virginia's 2nd district. We can also project that Republicans will win Florida's 18th district, a gain for the Republicans as incumbent Patrick Murphy looks likely to be elected on the Senate list. This is the first gain for the Republicans of the night. CNN can also make some projects for the Democrats. We can project that Democrats will win Texas' 9th, 15th, 16th, 18th, 20th, 28th, 29th, 30th, 33rd, 34th, and 35th districts. CNN can project that Democrats will win Missouri's 1st and 5th districts. CNN can project that Democrats will win Illinois' 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 7th, 9th and 11th districts. CNN can project that Democrats will win Michigan's 12th, 13th, and 14th districts. We can project that Democrats will win Tennessee's 5th and 9th districts. We can project that Democrats will win Mississippi's 2nd district. We can project that Democrats will win Alabama's 7th district. We can project that Democrats will win the District of Columbia-At Large seat. We can project that Democrats will win Maryland's 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 7th, and 8th districts. We can project that Democrats will win Delaware's At-Large seat. We can project that Democrats will win Pennsylvania's 1st, 2nd, 13th, and 14th districts. We can project that Democrats will win New Jersey's 1st, 6th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 12th districts. We can project that Democrats will win Connecticut's 1st and 3rd districts. We can project that Democrats will win Rhode Island's 1st district. We can project that Democrats will win Massachusetts' 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th district. We can project that Democrats will win Maine's 1st district. It is too close to call in Texas' 7th, 10th, 22nd, and 24th districts. It is too close to call in Kansas' 3rd district. It is too close to call in Illinois' 6th, 8th, 10th, 13th, and 17th districts. It is too close to call in Michigan's 5th, 6th, 8th, 9th, and 11th districts. It is too close to call in Alabama's 2nd district. It is too close to call in Pennsylvania's 6th, 7th, 8th, 16th, and 17th districts. It is too close to call in New Jersey's 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 7th, and 11th districts. It is too close to call in Connecticut's 2nd, 4th, and 5th districts. It is too close to call in Rhode Island's 2nd district. It is too close to call in Massachusetts' 9th district. It is too close to call in New Hampshire's 1st and 2nd districts. It is too close to call in Maine's 2nd district. That gives us 134 seats for the Republicans and 84 for the Democrats. Now let's head to John King and the Magic Wall.

(Map for reference):


John King, the latest round of poll closings brought the Republicans to 134, they now need a little more than 100 seats to win a majority. Let's look at some of the places that have closed where the Democrats are looking to make up that gap.

John King: Yes, let's go down here to South Florida. We've been watching the 26th and 27th all night and more of the vote is now in here, around 50%, so let's see where things stand. In the 27th, again Ileana Ros-Letihnen a longtime incumbent, she's leading the Democrat, but just barely 52-48, now it's possible that what's left is leaning towards the Democrats, but it looks like she could survive narrowly, now let's go to the neighboring 26th, this one is the more traditionally Democratic district and it shows here. Carlos Curbelo, the incumbent, not just trailing his Democratic challenger, but doing so by a pretty significant margin, 53-47. Now, let's jump over to the Senate map for just a second, again Republicans with a very narrow lead 51-49, maybe they net a majority of Florida's Senators, but that's not really important. Let's go down here to Miami Dade County, the Democrats are leading here by a margin of 63-36, obviously the Republican incumbents doing better than that, but the baseline for them is so bad, that it's hard for them to overcome those coattails. Now let's go over to Georgia, these races have emerged as surprisingly competitive. In Georgia's 7th, Rep. Rob Woodall has a lead and it's a pretty big one at 57-43, but many votes are still left in the more blue, southern part of his district, he will probably survive, but this is one to keep an eye on. If we go over to the neighboring seat, similar story, longtime Rep. Tom Price with a smaller lead at 54.5-45.5, but it's still a 9 point lead, and Republicans should hold both of these, even if Democrats have made major inroads here. Let's go over to Virginia's 10th now, and some more voting starting to come in, but again we're still only at 30%, Northern Virginia is infamous for counting slowly, and we have a pretty significant Comstock lead, but Loudoun and Fairfax, which is where the Democrats are hoping to get the votes to take this one, count slow and we could be up late for this one.

Wolf Blitzer: We have talked plenty about where Republicans could lose seats tonight, given the implications that it could possibly give Democrats the majority, but where could Democrats lose seats tonight, given we just saw them lose Florida's 18th.

John King: Well, let's come over to Ohio's 13th. Many Democrats were very surprised that this was not called at poll-closing time, and perhaps even more surprised that it still hasn't been called. Let's go to the Ohio Senate map for a second, again Republicans with a pretty big lead at 52-46, and this was a state that did vote for Obama in 2012, and let's focus on one county in particular, Mahoning County, this voted 63-35 four years for Barack Obama, today the Democratic Senate list is still carrying it, but by a much less margin at 53-47. Again, if we come out to OH-13, the incumbent Tim Ryan, very popular here, and he does still have a pretty big lead at 56-44, so he is likely to win, but a massive underperformance here for the Democrats. While they probably will not lose this one, the lack of calls in similar seats like MI-05 and PA-17 as well as the fact that they are defending seats like this in Minnesota and elsewhere, surely have to have the Democrats worried.

Wolf Blitzer: We will take a quick commercial break and CNN Election Night in America: 2016 will return shortly.

[S019]

Cool!

Does this mean the Senate is bigger than the House?

Yes, because I wanted some way to create a proportional Senate and still have it be based on the states, I considered House expansion, but then decided against it.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Cool!

Does this mean the Senate is bigger than the House?

Yes, because I wanted some way to create a proportional Senate and still have it be based on the states, I considered House expansion, but then decided against it.

That means we could see Senators going to the House since it's more prestigious.

[S019]

Wolf Blitzer: It is now 8:30 PM on the East Coast and that means polls will be closing in the state of Arkansas

CNN can project that Republicans will win Arkansas' 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th district. CNN can also project that North Carolina's 2nd, 9th, and 13th districts will go to the Republicans. We can also project that Virginia's 1st and 7th districts will go to the Republicans. We can also project that Ohio's 1st district will go to the Republicans. CNN can also project that Ohio's 13th district will go to the Democrats. That gives us 144 seats for the Republicans and 85 for the Democrats



Let's now go over to John King and the Magic Wall, so John King, the Republicans need around 75 seats to get a majority, based off of what we've called, how far are they.

John King: Well, let's go over to our safe+likely map, this map has leans and tossups in the battleground category.

Well the Republicans would be at 188 and the Democrats at 141, the Republicans would be around 30 seats short, if they just won all of the safe or likely seats. There are several uncalled seats that they're favored in so maybe we could see them win the majority with the West Coast poll closings. A Democratic majority just looks unlikely, at this point.


(Note: LA-02 should be blue, but I forgot so Dems actually have 141)


It's probably still too early to game out specific paths, but there are 108 seats still either expected to be up for grabs or not called by CNN, the Republicans need exactly 31 of those, less than 30%. At this point, it's more of a numbers game for the Republicans, the Democrats can even get a few upsets, and it wouldn't be enough. The Democrats would really like to score in an upset in one of these light red seats, and perhaps it looks like they could as we still haven't called Alabama's 2nd, let's actually go there. The Republican Senate list winning this easily at 65-33 as expected. But the incumbent Martha Roby she is only leading the Democrat by a margin of 55-45, it looks like it'll be enough, but Democrats want more of these types of results, especially since some of these light red seats are not going to be red as Alabama.

9 PM Poll Closings

Wolf Blitzer: It is now 9 PM on the East Coast and polls will be closing in several states including New York, Michigan, and Wisconsin. We will also be able to make some projections

CNN can project that Republicans will win Arizona's 4th, 5th, and 8th districts. CNN can also project that Republicans will win Colorado's 4th and 5th districts.
CNN can project that Republicans will win Wyoming's At-Large District. CNN can project that Republicans will win North Dakota's At-Large District. CNN can project that Republicans will win South Dakota's At-Large District. CNN can project that Republicans will win Nebraska's 1st and 3rd districts. CNN can project that Republicans will win Kansas' 1st district. CNN can project that Republicans will win Minnesota's 5th district. CNN can project that Republicans will win Wisconsin's 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th districts. CNN can project that the Republicans will win New York's 1st, 11th, 21st, 23rd, and 27th districts. CNN can project that Republicans will win Louisiana's 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th districts. CNN can also project that Republicans will win Alabama's 2nd district and New Jersey's 3rd district. CNN also project that Republicans win Texas' 10th, 22nd, and 24th district. CNN can also project that Republicans will win Michigan's 6th and 8th districts. CNN can also project that Republicans will win Maine's 2nd district. CNN can also project that Republicans will win Georgia's 7th district. We can also make some projections for the Democrats. CNN can project that the Democrats will win Arizona's 3rd, 7th, and 9th districts. CNN can project that Democrats will win New Mexico's 1st and 3rd districts. CNN can project that Democrats will win Texas' 16th district. CNN can project that the Democrats will win Colorado's 1st and 2nd districts. CNN can project that the Democrats will win Minnesota's 4th and 5th districts. CNN can project that Democrats will win Wisconsin's 1st, 3rd, and 4th districts. CNN can project that Democrats will win Louisiana's 2nd district. CNN can project that Democrats will win New York's 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 12th, 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th, 20th, and 26th districts. CNN can also project that Democrats will win Michigan's 9th district. CNN can project that Democrats will win Connecticut's 1st district. CNN can project that Democrats will win Rhode Island's 2nd district. CNN can project that Democrats will win Massachusetts' 9th district. CNN can project that Democrats will win Maryland's 6th district. CNN can project that Democrats will win Illinois' 8th district. We can also make a major projections, the Democrats will win Illinois' 10th district, previously held by Republican Bob Dold, this is the first pickup of the night to not involve redistricting. We had a few pickups earlier in Virginia and Florida for both parties involving redistricting, but this is the first one to not involve redistricting. It is too close to call in Arizona's 1st, 2nd, and 6th districts. It is too close to call in New Mexico's 2nd district. It is too close to call in Colorado's 3rd, 6th, and 7th districts. It is too close to call in Nebraska's 2nd district. It is too close to call in Texas' 23rd district. It is too close to call in Minnesota's 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 7th, and 8th districts. It is too close to call in Wisconsin's 1st district. It is too close to call in New York's 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 19th, 22nd, 24th, and 25th districts. This gives us 179 seats for the Republicans and 118 for the Democrats. Let's head over to John King and the Magic Wall, so John King given what we just called, how does that impact the chances of a majority for either side

Map (for reference):


John King: Well last time we were looking at this, we said that Republicans needed around 30 seats that were either uncalled or competitive to win a majority. They just got 11 in the last round of calls. So now, they are probably just around 20 seats short of a majority. So the Republicans likely have 199 seats securely in their column. Meanwhile we called six seats for the Democrats in that same time interval, so they probably have 147 seats securely in their column. The Democrats can still win this election, but at some point, the odds become daunting.



Wolf Blitzer: John, let's now get a look at some of the key battleground races.

John King: Sure, let's start by going back to South Florida, we've been watching this one all night. Now around 87% in here in the 26th district, and Carlos Curbelo, the Republican incumbent, he is trailing by a margin of 52-48, that might just be enough for the Democrats to flip this seat, which would be a much needed break for them given the way that this election seems to be going. Now let's look here at the 27th district, this one has also been close all night, Rep. Ros-Letihnen, the Republican incumbent, is leading by around 3 points, 51.5-48.5, that will probably be enough, but still it's absolutely shocking to the Florida Republican Party that she came this close to losing given how much of an institution she's been in the district. Let's now come up here to Georgia's 6th, now this one caught a lot of people by surprise, but that Atlanta area vote is starting to come in and Rep. Tom Price still with a lead of around 52.5-47.5 over his Democratic challenger, that looks like it'll be enough, but 4 years ago, Mitt Romney was breaking 60% here, so there is definitely work to do for the Republicans here after this near-loss surprise. Now let's go up to Virginia. This is Virginia's 2nd, heavy military vote here, Romney did win here but just by 2 points. Now 4 years later, it looks like we're in for another narrow Republican win as Rep. Scott Taylor is leading by around 5 points, 52.5-47.5. Now let's come up here to Virginia's 10th, that Northern Virginia vote finally starting to come in, we have around 50% counted and Barbara Comstock holding a 52-48 lead, but let's come here to Loudoun County, again we said all night that this was going to be critical to Democratic hopes here. Around 40% in in Loudoun County and the Democrats actually holding a lead of 3 points here, a lot more left to count, but we expect what is left to come out of here is going to be Democratic votes, and if that holds true, then Republicans are going to lose this one, and it may be more lopsided than many expected.

Wolf Blitzer: There are several races that we have not surprisingly called tonight and are emerging as surprise competitive races, one of them is Texas' 7th, can you take us there

John King: Sure, these are rich white suburbs of Houston, places like Bellaire and West University Place are in this district. It's the richest district in Houston. Romney won here by 21, 4 years ago. Tonight that margin is down significantly. Rep. John Culberson with around a 6 point lead on his Democratic challenger, 53.5-46.5. Again I'm going to caveat that we still only have around 60% in here, so this race could change dramatically as the night progresses, and it's possible that what we're waiting on is heavily Republican votes. But it is also possible that we are waiting on heavily Democratic votes and thus a possible surprise Democratic flip could happen here. We've been asking all night where can the Democrats get their surprise flip, maybe it'll be here.

Wolf Blitzer: John, hold on, we have some projections to make

CNN can project that Georgia's 6th district will go to the Republicans, a much closer race than expected, but they will hold on. CNN can also project that Virginia's 2nd district will be won by the Republicans, another key battleground district to go for the Republicans and significantly narrow the Democrats' path to a majority. We can also project that Pennsylvania's 16th district will go to the Republicans. This gives us 182 seats for the Republicans and 118 for the Democrats.

Map (for reference):


10:00 PM poll closings

It is now 10 PM on the East Coast and we will be able to make some projections. CNN can project that Nevada's 2nd district will go to the Republicans. CNN can project that Utah's 1st, 2nd, and 3rd districts will go to the Republicans. CNN can project Idaho's 2nd district will go to the Republicans. CNN can project Montana's At Large district will go to the Republicans. CNN can project Iowa's 4th district will go to the Republicans. CNN can also project that Colorado's 3rd district will go to the Republicans. CNN can also project that the Republicans will win New Mexico's 2nd district. CNN can also project that Wisconsin's 1st district will be won by the Republicans. CNN can also project that New Jersey's 2nd district will be won by the Republicans. CNN can also project that Arizona's 6th district will be won by the Republicans. CNN can also project that New York's 2nd district will be won by the Republicans. CNN can project that Nevada's 1st district will go to the Democrats. CNN can also project that New York's 3rd and 4th districts will go to the Democrats. CNN can also project that Michigan's 5th district will go to the Democrats. CNN can also project that Connecticut's 5th district will go to the Democrats. It is too close to call in Nevada's 3rd and 4th districts. It is too close to call in Utah's 4th district. It is too close to call in Iowa's 1st, 2nd, and 3rd districts. This gives us 195 seats for the Republicans and 123 for the Democrats. Now let's head over to John King and the Magic Wall.

Map (for reference):


John King, the Republicans now at 195, getting closer and closer to 219 seats, which would be a majority, just how far off are they.

John King: Well last time that we pulled this map up we said they were around 20 seats short, if they won everything that we expect them to. So, in that same interval they were able to win eight of the seats that we had previously not called or otherwise considered competitive, so they're now around 12 seats short. Not only are the Democrats' paths to a majority quickly dwindling, but also it looks like Republicans could get way more than a majority, and a possible Prime Minister Bush could have a broad mandate to pass his agenda.



Wolf Blitzer: John King, there are some races in New Jersey and Pennsylvania which have emerged as very competitive, and are almost all entirely held by Republicans, let's get a look there.

John King: Sure, this is mostly a collection of heavily suburban seats that all voted for Romney four years ago, but we also have one competitive seat that voted for Obama that's quite different from the rest, so let's actually go there first. This is Pennsylvania's 17, it is a pretty industrial seat and we've seen Democrats underperforming greatly in these types of seats, even if they held on to some of them. This one is looking very iffy though. We have 75% of the vote in, and Democratic Representative Matt Cartwright is trailing by a margin of 52-48, when you're a Democrat looking for a near sweep of the competitive seats left, this is not what you want to see. Now let's go down to Southeast Pennsylvania, again these seats all voted for Romney. Let's go to PA-08 first, this is Bucks County, a perennial suburban swing county, and Obama did the best here out of this trio of seats. If we pull it up you'll see a lead for Republican Brian Fitzpatrick by a margin of around 53-47, but 80% is in and it's not clear if there's much more vote out here for Democrats, this one might be over. Now let's go to PA-06, this one is a pretty strongly gerrymandered seat, Romney only won this narrowly though by around 2 points, now 4 years later, Republican Representative Ryan Costello is clinging to a similarly narrowly lead at 51-49, even if we have 82% in here, this one, at least, isn't over, 18% of the vote can absolutely swing this race, if, and that's the big caveat, if it's Democratic leaning, but the way the Republicans' night is going, it looks like they won't need this one. Now let's jump over here to PA-07, this district connects some heavily Republican rural with some bluer parts of Metro Philly. Romney won here, but only by 2 points. Republican Representative Pat Meehan is basically in a dead-heat with his Democratic opponent, it's 50-50, if we pull up the exact decimals we have 50.3-49.7, so possible recount territory here. Now let's jump across the river to New Jersey. This is New Jersey's 7th district, Romney won here by 7 points, a similar margin for Republicans here tonight as Republican Representative Leonard Lance has a 53-47 lead with 85% in, this one should be over. Now if we jump up one more, this is New Jersey's 11th, this one is also likely over, we have 82% in and Republican Representative Rodney Frelinghuysen with a 54-46 lead. If we jump up one more, this is perhaps the most worrying one of this handful of seats for the Republicans. This is New Jersey's 5th, Romney won here by 3, but incumbent Scott Garrett has drawn lots of controversy and was targeted very heavily by Democrats, and with 80% in, we have basically a dead heat here at 50-50 and if we pull up the decimals, the Democrats actually have a 50.2-49.8 lead.

Wolf Blitzer: John King, some seats in Illinois that voted for Romney have also emerged as quite competitive, could we also go there.

John King: Sure, we actually have some seats that voted for Obama also emerging as pretty competitive here. Let's actually start with the Obama seat, this is Illinois' 17th, it voted for Obama by 17 points, now if we move to tonight, we see Democrat Cheri Bustos is leading 52-48 and around 75% in, so this one can surely still change, and we'll continue to keep an eye on it. Now, we'll go to the sole downstate Illinois seat still on the board, this is Illinois' 13th and it was a dead heat here in 2012, now tonight Republican Representative Rodney Davis leads by 5, 52.5-47.5, with around 80% in, that looks like it should be enough. Now let's jump up to the metro Chicago area, Bob Dold has already lost here and we have two more Republican seats uncalled. Let's go to the redder seat first, this is Illinois' 14th, Romney won here by 10 points, now 4 years later, that margin has basically been halved, a 53-47 lead for Republican Representative Randy Hultgren. Now let's jump to Illinois' 6th, Romney won here by 8 four years ago, but with 70% in, we have the Democrats actually with a narrow lead of around 52-48 over Republican incumbent Pete Roskam. If this holds, then we'd have seen a near wipeout of Chicagoland Republicans. A silver lining that the Democrats can take away from what has been a disappointing night for them, thus far.

Wolf Blitzer: John King, we have also been watching competitive races all night long in Florida and Virginia, let's get another update.

John King: Sure, let's start by going here to Virginia's 10th, now we have 90% in and the Democrats are up 53-47 and what is coming in is just adding to that margin, this one is likely over. Now if we go down to Florida, first in South Florida, in the 26th, Rep. Curbelo continues to trail narrowly with the Democrats' lead now at 52-48 and 90% in, it doesn't look like there's enough for him to come back. Now in the neighboring 27th, Rep. Ros-Letihnen's race has actually tightened, we're down all the way to 50.5-49.5 now, but 95% is in. Now if we go back to the I-4 tossups, John Mica is now behind 52.5-47.5 in FL-07, this one looks like a Democratic pickup. In FL-13, we have a dead heat at 50-50, the Democrats up 50.2-49.8 if we bring up the decimals, but this one looks like it'll come down to provisionals and overseas ballots.

10:45 PM

Wolf Blitzer: It is now 10:45 PM on the East Coast, and we can make several projections.

CNN can project Pennsylvania's 8th district will go to the Republicans. CNN can project New Jersey's 7th and 11th districts will go to the Republicans. CNN can project Illinois' 13th and 14th districts will go to the Republicans. CNN can project that Michigan's 11th district will go to the Republicans. CNN can project that New York's 22nd district will go to the Republicans. CNN can project that Minnesota's 7th district will go to the Republicans, the Republicans able to defeat incumbent Democrat Collin Peterson in Minnesota's 7th. We can also make some projections for the Democrats. CNN can project that Colorado's 7th district will go the Democrats. CNN can project that New York's 25th district will go to the Democrats. CNN can also project that Democrats will win Virginia's 10th district, Democrats defeat incumbent Barbara Comstock and will pickup the seat. CNN can project that Democrats will pickup up Florida's 26th district, able to defeat incumbent Carlos Curbelo. CNN can project that Democrats will pickup Florida's 7th district, able to defeat incumbent John Mica. This gives us 202 seats for the Republicans and 123 seats for the Democrats.

Map (for reference):


11:00 PM

Wolf Blitzer: Polls will now be closing in several states including California, and we can make some projections.

CNN can project that Idaho's 1st district will go to the Republicans. CNN can project that Washington's 4th district will go to the Republicans. CNN can project that Oregon's 2nd district will go to the Republicans. CNN can project that California's 1st, 4th, 8th, 23rd, and 50th districts will go to the Republicans. CNN can project that Washington's 2nd, 7th, and 10th districts will go to the Democrats. CNN can project that Oregon's 1st and 3rd districts will go to the Democrats. We can project that California's 2nd, 5th, 6th, 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th, 18th, 19th, 20th, 26th, 27th, 28th, 29th, 30th, 32nd, 33rd, 34th, 35th, 37th, 38th, 40th, 41st, 43rd, 44th, 46th, 47th, 51st, and 53rd districts will go to the Democrats. We can project that Hawaii's 1st and 2nd districts will go to the Democrats. It is too close to call in Washington's 1st, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 8th, and 9th districts. It is too close to call in Oregon's 4th and 5th districts. It is too close to call in California's 3rd, 7th, 10th, 21st, 22nd, 24th, 25th, 31st, 36th, 39th, 42nd, 45th, 48th, 49th, and 52nd districts. This gives us 210 seats for the Republicans and 162 seats for the Democrats.

Map (for reference):

[S019]

Note: This Update Exceeds the Atlas Post Count and thus will be posted as two separate posts

Part I

Wolf Blitzer: We will go to John King and the Magic Wall in a moment, but first we will be getting an update from the campaign headquarters for both parties as the Republicans get closer to that magic number of 219. First, let's hear from the Democratic Headquarters.

Reporter: Well, I am here at Democratic headquarters, and I am hearing rumors, just rumors that Clinton is preparing to give her concession speech. She has, again, I emphasize that these are just rumors, but she has told her closest advisors that she has lost the election, and is just waiting until the Republicans officially get 219 seats before conceding the election to the Republicans. I have not heard anything about whether or not she will stay on as leader of the Democratic Party, her campaign staff has been very quiet on that front.

Wolf Blitzer: Thank you, and now let's hear from Republican Headquarters

Reporter: Well, it's basically the opposite here. Bush is preparing to give a victory speech and Deputy Leader Nikki Haley has already spoken to the crowd and basically told them that "We're 99% sure that we've won this election." Of course, with the way this night is shaping up, the Republicans could not only win 219 seats, but they could win a sizable majority, which could give Bush the margin he needs to push for reforms long advocated by the Republican Party, such as the repeal of the Affordable Care Act and the privatization of Medicare.

Wolf Blitzer: Thank you both for keeping us informed throughout the night, and we will now head over to the Magic Wall, and John King, the race for the House looks largely over, where does the Senate stand with polls now closed in all of the lower 48.

John King: Well, that's an interesting question, and let's actually pull up our Senate map:



So 275 seats are needed for a majority, and so far, the Democrats with a lead of 8 seats, though it is going to come down to these 27 uncalled seats. So, in order to get Senate control, the Republicans would need to get to 275, Alaska is still yet to close but we expect it to be competitive. Assuming then, that we have 28 battlegrounds, Republicans need 20 of them, or right around 71%, so could they pull it off, possibly, but the Democrats look like the favorites for the Senate, and that could make it hard for the Republicans to pass their agenda. We'll continue to watch the races develop here, as the night progresses. This was our first look at the Senate, though we had been keeping track of the races at the bottom of the screen. It developed, as we expected, and it is going to come down to the margins that these states are won by.

Wolf Blitzer: John King, thank you, and we also can make some projections, so stand by. CNN can project that Texas' 7th district will go to the Republicans. CNN can project that Utah's 4th district will go to the Republicans. CNN can also project that New York's 19th and 24th district will go to the Republicans. CNN can also project another gain for the Republicans, they will flip Minnesota's 1st district, previously held by Democratic Representative Tim Walz. CNN can also project that Democrats will win New York's 18th district and Connecticut's 2nd district, these races were much closer than expected, but the Democrats are able to hold on. CNN can also project Democrats will win Illinois' 17th district, another one that was closer than the Democrats had expected, but they do hold on there. That gives us 215 seats for the Republicans and 165 for the Democrats.



John King, we have a series of tossup seats emerging in the Plains states, and while it looks like the Republicans will win a majority, the margin could be decisive, especially with the best case for Republicans in the Senate being a very narrow majority.

John King: Sure, let's take a look, let's start here in Kansas, Kansas' 3rd, voted for Romney by nearly 10, now tonight the Republican margin down to just 2 points, 51-49, it looks like they'll hold this one, but a big swing against the Republicans here. Now let's go up to Nebraska's 2nd, Democrats actually hold this one, and Democratic incumbent Brad Ashford is trailing his Republican opponent by a point, 50.5-49.5. Now let's jump over to Iowa, these are three seats which all voted for Obama in 2012, but Republicans hold 2 out of 3 of them, let's start in the Democratic one actually, this is Iowa's 2nd, the Democrats with a lead here and it's not exactly a small one, they're up 53-47, and that will probably be enough. Now over to Iowa's 3rd, a Republican lead here and it's at 53-47, that should be enough. Lastly, let's go to Iowa's 1st, this one voted for Obama by 14 points and it was widely expected to be very competitive, the Republicans with a 50.5-49.5 lead, but again it's a very narrow lead, and this one could flip. Now let's jump up to Minnesota, this is a state where Republicans felt they could net as many as three seats and two of them already fell, let's actually start with the 3rd Republican target, this is Minnesota's 8th, Obama won here by 5 points, and this is a pretty heavy union area, lots of mining, it should be a Democratic stronghold, but Democratic incumbent Rick Nolan is not only behind, but by a pretty large margin at 53-47. Now let's look at seats that the Republicans are defending, we start here in Minnesota's 2nd, this seat was a dead heat back in 2012, it is also one today, the Republican leads 50.2-49.8, very much in recount territory. The last seat of the bunch we're looking at was also a dead heat back in 2012, this is Minnesota's 3rd, Romney won here by a point and 4 years later, Republican incumbent Erik Paulsen is trailing his Democratic opponent by 3 pts, 51.5-48.5

Wolf Blitzer: John King, let's get a look at New Hampshire, two seats that both parties had been very optimistic about taking.

John King: Sure, this is New Hampshire's 1st, it is held by Republican Frank Guinta. It voted for Obama by 2 points, 4 years ago and today, Rep. Guinta has a 52-48 lead, which will probably be enough, not much vote left to count here at all. Now, this is New Hampshire's 2nd, it leans more Democratic, Obama won here by 10, but now 4 years later, Democratic Rep. Ann Kuster is narrowly trailing her Republican opponent at 50.1-49.9, yet another race we have on knife's edge. With so many of these tossups on knife's edge, I wouldn't be surprised if Republicans end this night at only 220-225 seats or so, which absolutely is a majority, but it is not the type of large mandate, that we were talking about only a few hours before.

Wolf Blitzer: Speaking of races on knife's edge, has anything changed in the two uncalled races in Florida

John King: Well not much, in Florida's 27th, we've tightened again, all the way down to a 50.3-49.7 lead for Rep. Ros-Letihnen, but we have 99% in, so this will probably go to a recount. The Democratic lead in Florida's 13th has grown slightly to 50.4-49.6, but still very much looking like we're headed to recount territory.

11:30 PM

Wolf Blitzer: CNN can make a major projection, we can project that Republicans will have a majority in the House of Representatives. CNN can project that Washington's 5th district will go to the Republicans. CNN can project that California's 42nd district will go to the Republicans. CNN can project that Pennsylvania's 6th district will go to the Republicans. CNN can project that Iowa's 3rd district will go to the Republicans. CNN can project that New Hampshire's 1st district will go to the Republicans. We can also make some calls for the Democrats. We can project that Washington's 1st, 6th, and 9th districts will go to the Democrats. We can project that California's 3rd, 9th, 31st, and 52nd districts will go the Democrats. We can also project that Iowa's 2nd district will go to the Democrats. 220 seats for the Republicans and 173 for the Democrats. The Republicans will have a majority and Jeb Bush will presumably be the first ever Prime Minister of the United States. Let's now go over to the panel with Jake Tapper and Dana Bash. The Senate is still up for grabs but the Republicans will now have a House majority.



Jake Tapper: Yes, and a lot of what Jeb Bush can do will come down if Democrats can take the Senate. If they can do so, they'd have the power to block a lot of his proposals whether it be repealing the ACA, or privatizing Medicare, or passing another round of tax cuts.

Dana Bash: Not only that, but there is the possibility that is a very narrow majority for the Republicans, a lot of the seats that are left are basically on knife's edge, and there could be some rebellious moderates who may risk de-selection to fight the Prime Minister's agenda, he may be able to push for their de-selection in 2020, but can do nothing for the four years in the interim.

Wolf Blitzer: We are getting reports that Hillary Clinton is getting ready to concede, let's listen in

I just called Governor Bush to congratulate him and the Republican Party on their election victory. This is obviously not the outcome that we had fought so hard for. I hope that Governor Bush will be a leader for all Americans. This loss hurts, and I understand that. I understand how disheartening it must be for all of our supporters, including the millions of women who were hoping that we'd finally shatter that glass ceiling. However, we have lost this election and we must accept that. During my phone call with Governor Bush, I expressed my best wishes for the transition of power. To our supporters, who may feel discouraged, I encourage you to continue to stay active in your communities and continue to participate in the democratic process. To all of our organizers, campaign staff, strategists, and aides, I thank you for all of the work that you put in to help our campaign. I want to thank Tim Kaine, who has been an excellent Deputy Leader, throughout this whole campaign. I will note that all of the votes have not been counted, and the Senate is still up for grabs. Regardless of whether or not we win the Senate, we will work with Governor Bush, when we believe he does the right thing for America, but we will oppose his agenda, if we believe it is wrong for America. I also want to thank Bill for all of his support through all these years and I want to thank all of you who put your trust in me. This loss does hurt, but we will come back stronger next time, thank you and God bless America.

Wolf Blitzer: That was Democratic Leader Hillary Clinton speaking at her election night event in Midtown Manhattan. Let's now go to the panel to get their thoughts on it.

[S019]

Part II

Jake Tapper: Well, one thing that stood out to me was there was absolutely no mention of whether or not she'd stay on as leader. This was the million dollar question, and it looks like she has no intention of answering it in a speech that millions of people were watching.

Dana Bash: Absolutely, but another interesting thing is she did note how the Senate is still up for grabs, and how possibly Democrats could be in a position to essentially have a veto over Bush's agenda.

Jake Tapper: Absolutely, and I think that might be the silver lining Democrats take from tonight, if they can basically stonewall Bush for four years, maybe they can come back stronger in four years. However, voters who had largely grown tired of gridlock under the old presidential system are not going to be happy if indeed more of the same is in store.

Dana Bash: That brings up another point, perhaps she is waiting on the Senate results to see if she wants to stay on as leader.

Jake Tapper: Well, one thing is for sure, it is going to be the first thing that she is asked by the media tomorrow, and she will have to respond in some way.

Wolf Blitzer: We are also getting reports that Governor Bush is about to speak

Thank you, thank you

A short while back, Secretary Clinton called me to concede the election. She expressed her best wishes for the transition. I will work my hardest to be a leader for all Americans, whether you voted for us, or not. This victory is a victory for the average American. It is a victory for the single mother whose taxes are too high, or whose healthcare premiums are too high. It is a victory for the father who puts his taxpayer money into Social Security, without knowing if it will be around for him or for his children. We are ready to use this mandate to bring lasting change to America. We will restore solvency to Social Security. We will voucherize Medicare, so that it can be enjoyed for decades to come. We will reform Obamacare and lower your premiums, because I know already that the average American has it hard enough. We will cut your taxes, so that you can keep more of your money. I am aware that we may not have a Senate majority, we will work with the Democrats, if needed, to bring this lasting change to America. Despite all of the attacks in this campaign, we need to remember that we are still one nation. In areas where I believe Barack Obama succeeded, I will not be afraid to build on his successes. I will continue the war on ISIS, and escalate it, if needed. I will continue to maintain our military presence in Afghanistan. We have a bold agenda to move America forward, but we couldn't have done it without your support. I would like to thank all of our aides, strategists, and organizers who helped make this campaign what this was. I want to thank Nikki Haley for being an amazing Deputy Leader. I want to also thank my family for all of their support. I also want to thank you for all of your support. Together, we will move America forward, step by step. Thank you all, and God bless America.

Jake Tapper: Jeb Bush laid out a very bold and also very conservative economic agenda.

Dana Bash: Yes, this is the perfect type of speech if Republicans were on track to win the Senate and the appetite for this type of bold conservatism existed, but at the very best, it'll be a pretty narrow House majority with lots of moderates who may very well be skeptical of ideas like voucherizing Medicare.

Jake Tapper: Yes, absolutely, though given that Paul Ryan is now in line to be the Treasury Secretary, you have to wonder if the Republicans are going to pick a fight over the budget even if they lose the Senate.

Dana Bash: That'll be the interesting thing, also perhaps a gambit for a snap election, if the voters do indeed side with the Republicans.

Jake Tapper: Well they campaigned perhaps even more aggressively on these issues than in 2012, yet they won this one and lost this one, and looking at the Senate results, the Republicans likely would've won under the Electoral College system, as well, so what changed in four years?

Dana Bash: Well, I think part of it was Hillary Clinton's unpopularity, she was deeply unpopular among independents, but also the fundamentals were just far better for the Republicans this year, terrorism and foreign policy were obviously big issues, which brings up another interesting point, no talk of the Iran Deal in that speech.

Jake Tapper: Yeah, that absolutely was interesting, given the opposition to the Deal during the campaign, but when asked if he'd tear it up, Bush was far more vague.

Dana Bash: Well, that decision will likely be decided by likely future Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has indicated an opposition to the Deal and supports tearing it up.

Jake Tapper: It will definitely be interesting to see how the issue develops, for sure.

12:30 PM

Wolf Blitzer: John King, let's get another look at the Senate and see how it's developing, especially since it is now very clear that there is a lot at stake

John King: Sure, let's pull up the Senate map:



9 battlegrounds have gone off the board since we last looked at this map. They split roughly evenly, which is not what the Republicans wanted. Republicans need to now win 14/18 of the battlegrounds left to win a majority. Democrats only need to win 8 of them. Democratic Senate minority or even a majority looking quite likely, at the moment. Technically, the Democrats really only need to win 6 since both independents elected in Vermont and Maine have long caucused with the Democrats. Some good news for the Democrats is that basically all of the competitive Senate seats left are in heavily Democratic states, such as Massachusetts, California, and Washington.

1:00 AM

Wolf Blitzer: It is now time for the 1 AM poll closings, CNN can project that Alaska's US House seat will go to the Republicans. CNN cannot make a call in the sole Senate race in Alaska. Let's now go to John King and the Magic Wall, and John King, with the House decided, much of our attention had been on the Senate for the past hour, where do things stand in the House?

John King: Well things haven't changed much, just 12 seats went off the board in the last hour and a half. The Republicans are at 227 seats for the Republicans and the Democrats are at 178. Let's just go over some of the big races we called. First for the Democrats, they were able to flip several suburban seats, seats that we had been watching all night. CNN has projected the Democrats as the winners in Minnesota's 3rd, Colorado's 6th, and Illinois' 6th. Colorado's 6th did vote for Obama, 4 years ago, but the other two were Romney seats. Now for the Republicans, they continued to make significant inroads into industrial areas that had voted for Obama four years ago. They were able to flip Minnesota's 8th district and Pennsylvania's 17th districts. However, despite all of the losses that Republicans have taken in the suburbs tonight, they were able to gain a pretty suburban and urban seat here in Nebraska, a seat that voted for Obama in 2008 and then for Romney in 2012, it had a Democratic representative, he has lost his race to the Republicans. Now we have a bunch of uncalled races out west, but a lot of these states, especially California and Arizona use substantial amounts of mail voting, so results are unlikely there for a while.

Map (for reference):

.