YCC: More warming a threat to the Hajj – and human habitation – in the Middle East

[Kamala's side hoe]

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/07/more-warming-a-threat-to-the-hajj-and-human-habitation-in-the-middle-east/

High wet-bulb temperatures in Saudi Arabia in summer
While the heat index – which measures heat stress due to high temperatures combined with high humidity – is often used to quantify dangerous heat, a more precise measure of heat stress is the wet-bulb temperature (TW), which can be measured by putting a wet cloth around the bulb of a thermometer and then blowing air across the cloth. The wet-bulb temperature increases with increasing temperature and humidity and is a measure of “mugginess”. The U.S. National Weather Service defines the “Danger” threshold for TW at 24.6 degrees Celsius (76.3°F), and “Extreme Danger” at 29.1 degrees Celsius (84.4°F), assuming a 45% relative humidity.

Observations from the Mecca weather station indicate a significant rise in average TW during the past 30 years – nearly 2 degrees Celsius (3.6°F). This increase is well above the global average, and can be largely attributed to human-caused global warming. High heat stress events are common when the Hajj occurs during summer; over the 30‐year period 1984-2013, the danger threshold (TW of 24.6 degrees Celsius) was exceeded in 58% of years. However, the “Extreme Danger” threshold of 29.1 degrees Celsius was not reached.


Figure 1. Air-conditioned tents in Mina City, Saudi Arabia, 1.2 miles away from Mecca. (Photo credit: Seeley International)

Elderly Hajj participants at high risk of heat-related illness
While the floor of the Great Mosque, its covered areas, and the surrounding tents that pilgrims stay in are all air conditioned, the ritual of Hajj involves spending about 20-30 hours outdoors over a period of five days. The main outdoor activities, which occur in and surrounding Mecca, are:

1) Tawaf, or praying outside the Great Mosque of Mecca (Alharam) for a few hours on two different occasions;
2) Wakuf, or standing on the side of Mount Arafat for one day between sunrise and sunset, recognized as the most important activity of the Hajj; and
3) Ramy Al‐Jamrat, or walking in Mina (outskirts of Mecca) for several hours per day (called Stoning of the Devil), repeated in a sequence of three days.

Muslims who are in good health and can afford it are obligated to participate in the Hajj at least once in their lifetimes, and their desire to participate becomes more urgent as their age advances. As a result, a disproportionate fraction of Hajj participants are elderly and at higher risk of heat-related illness.



Figure 2. Satellite image indicating the location of the Great Mosque of Mecca (Al Haram), Mina, and Arafat in and near Mecca, Saudi Arabia. (Image credit: Google Earth and Kang et al., 2019, “Future Heat Stress During Muslim Pilgrimage (Hajj) Projected to Exceed Extreme Danger Levels”, Geophysical Research Letters 46,16 (2019): 10094–10100)

Future summer Hajj events at high risk of dangerous heat
The Hajj occurs every year on the same days of the Muslim calendar, which follows the lunar cycle. Since the lunar year is shorter than the solar year by about 11 days, the Hajj shifts about 11 days earlier every year, and cycles back to the same date in the solar calendar after about 33 years. The danger of extreme heat during Hajj will wane this decade as the dates transition from July to June and then May. But during the years 2045-2053, and again in 2079-2086, Hajj will fall during August-October. These are the months when wet bulb temperatures peak in Mecca, as a result of the combination of extreme heat and prevailing westerly winds that bring humid air from the Red Sea.



Figure 3. Daily maximum wet-bulb temperature (TWmax) during Hajj in 1976-2013 (blue line), and predicted under a moderate global warming scenario (RCP 4.5) through 2100 (green line). Shading represents the atmosphere‐ocean global climate model ranges during Hajj, and the vertical dashed black lines indicate bounds of Hajj periods occurring during August through October. (Image credit: Kang et al., 2019, “Future Heat Stress During Muslim Pilgrimage (Hajj) Projected to Exceed Extreme Danger Levels”, Geophysical Research Letters 46,16 (2019): 10094– 10100)

A 2019 paper by MIT scientist Suchul Kang and colleagues, “Future Heat Stress During Muslim Pilgrimage (Hajj) Projected to Exceed Extreme Danger Levels,” painted a very concerning picture for future Hajj events in a warming climate. The researchers showed that under a moderate global warming scenario, the maximum wet bulb temperature could be expected to exceed the “Extreme Danger” threshold of 29.1 degrees Celsius 15% of the time during Hajj in the years 2045-2053, and exceed the “Danger” threshold 91% of the time (Figure 3).

Along similar lines, a 2021 paper led by Fahad Saeed (Climate Analytics) and colleagues, “From Paris to Makkah: heat stress risks for Muslim pilgrims at 1.5 °C and 2 °C,” warns that the odds of exceeding the “danger” threshold at Mecca increase substantially for global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C – levels that are likely to be exceeded this century in the moderate global warming scenario discussed above – and that the “Extreme Danger” threshold may be surpassed during summer months.

Deadly Hajj stampedes may be more likely during extreme heat
The two deadliest stampedes during Hajj both occurred during days with extreme heat and humidity, when the maximum wet bulb temperature exceeded the 24.6 degrees Celsius “Danger” threshold. On July 2, 1990, 1,426 pilgrims died in a stampede when the maximum temperature (Tmax) reached 41.7 degrees Celsius (107°F) and wet‐bulb temperature (TWmax) hit 25.1 degrees Celsius (77.2°F). Similarly, on September 24, 2015, more than 2,000 pilgrims died in a stampede when Tmax and TWmax reached 48.3 degrees Celsius (118.9°F) and 27.3 degrees Celsius (81.1°F), respectively. The exact cause of these stampedes is unknown, but extreme heat is known to increase aggressive human behavior.

[Samof94]

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/07/more-warming-a-threat-to-the-hajj-and-human-habitation-in-the-middle-east/

High wet-bulb temperatures in Saudi Arabia in summer
While the heat index – which measures heat stress due to high temperatures combined with high humidity – is often used to quantify dangerous heat, a more precise measure of heat stress is the wet-bulb temperature (TW), which can be measured by putting a wet cloth around the bulb of a thermometer and then blowing air across the cloth. The wet-bulb temperature increases with increasing temperature and humidity and is a measure of “mugginess”. The U.S. National Weather Service defines the “Danger” threshold for TW at 24.6 degrees Celsius (76.3°F), and “Extreme Danger” at 29.1 degrees Celsius (84.4°F), assuming a 45% relative humidity.

Observations from the Mecca weather station indicate a significant rise in average TW during the past 30 years – nearly 2 degrees Celsius (3.6°F). This increase is well above the global average, and can be largely attributed to human-caused global warming. High heat stress events are common when the Hajj occurs during summer; over the 30‐year period 1984-2013, the danger threshold (TW of 24.6 degrees Celsius) was exceeded in 58% of years. However, the “Extreme Danger” threshold of 29.1 degrees Celsius was not reached.


Figure 1. Air-conditioned tents in Mina City, Saudi Arabia, 1.2 miles away from Mecca. (Photo credit: Seeley International)

Elderly Hajj participants at high risk of heat-related illness
While the floor of the Great Mosque, its covered areas, and the surrounding tents that pilgrims stay in are all air conditioned, the ritual of Hajj involves spending about 20-30 hours outdoors over a period of five days. The main outdoor activities, which occur in and surrounding Mecca, are:

1) Tawaf, or praying outside the Great Mosque of Mecca (Alharam) for a few hours on two different occasions;
2) Wakuf, or standing on the side of Mount Arafat for one day between sunrise and sunset, recognized as the most important activity of the Hajj; and
3) Ramy Al‐Jamrat, or walking in Mina (outskirts of Mecca) for several hours per day (called Stoning of the Devil), repeated in a sequence of three days.

Muslims who are in good health and can afford it are obligated to participate in the Hajj at least once in their lifetimes, and their desire to participate becomes more urgent as their age advances. As a result, a disproportionate fraction of Hajj participants are elderly and at higher risk of heat-related illness.



Figure 2. Satellite image indicating the location of the Great Mosque of Mecca (Al Haram), Mina, and Arafat in and near Mecca, Saudi Arabia. (Image credit: Google Earth and Kang et al., 2019, “Future Heat Stress During Muslim Pilgrimage (Hajj) Projected to Exceed Extreme Danger Levels”, Geophysical Research Letters 46,16 (2019): 10094–10100)

Future summer Hajj events at high risk of dangerous heat
The Hajj occurs every year on the same days of the Muslim calendar, which follows the lunar cycle. Since the lunar year is shorter than the solar year by about 11 days, the Hajj shifts about 11 days earlier every year, and cycles back to the same date in the solar calendar after about 33 years. The danger of extreme heat during Hajj will wane this decade as the dates transition from July to June and then May. But during the years 2045-2053, and again in 2079-2086, Hajj will fall during August-October. These are the months when wet bulb temperatures peak in Mecca, as a result of the combination of extreme heat and prevailing westerly winds that bring humid air from the Red Sea.



Figure 3. Daily maximum wet-bulb temperature (TWmax) during Hajj in 1976-2013 (blue line), and predicted under a moderate global warming scenario (RCP 4.5) through 2100 (green line). Shading represents the atmosphere‐ocean global climate model ranges during Hajj, and the vertical dashed black lines indicate bounds of Hajj periods occurring during August through October. (Image credit: Kang et al., 2019, “Future Heat Stress During Muslim Pilgrimage (Hajj) Projected to Exceed Extreme Danger Levels”, Geophysical Research Letters 46,16 (2019): 10094– 10100)

A 2019 paper by MIT scientist Suchul Kang and colleagues, “Future Heat Stress During Muslim Pilgrimage (Hajj) Projected to Exceed Extreme Danger Levels,” painted a very concerning picture for future Hajj events in a warming climate. The researchers showed that under a moderate global warming scenario, the maximum wet bulb temperature could be expected to exceed the “Extreme Danger” threshold of 29.1 degrees Celsius 15% of the time during Hajj in the years 2045-2053, and exceed the “Danger” threshold 91% of the time (Figure 3).

Along similar lines, a 2021 paper led by Fahad Saeed (Climate Analytics) and colleagues, “From Paris to Makkah: heat stress risks for Muslim pilgrims at 1.5 °C and 2 °C,” warns that the odds of exceeding the “danger” threshold at Mecca increase substantially for global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C – levels that are likely to be exceeded this century in the moderate global warming scenario discussed above – and that the “Extreme Danger” threshold may be surpassed during summer months.

Deadly Hajj stampedes may be more likely during extreme heat
The two deadliest stampedes during Hajj both occurred during days with extreme heat and humidity, when the maximum wet bulb temperature exceeded the 24.6 degrees Celsius “Danger” threshold. On July 2, 1990, 1,426 pilgrims died in a stampede when the maximum temperature (Tmax) reached 41.7 degrees Celsius (107°F) and wet‐bulb temperature (TWmax) hit 25.1 degrees Celsius (77.2°F). Similarly, on September 24, 2015, more than 2,000 pilgrims died in a stampede when Tmax and TWmax reached 48.3 degrees Celsius (118.9°F) and 27.3 degrees Celsius (81.1°F), respectively. The exact cause of these stampedes is unknown, but extreme heat is known to increase aggressive human behavior.

The Hajj comes off like a running of the bulls at times, except it involves putting 3 million Muslims in a small space and the biggest danger is other people.

[Kamala's side hoe]

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/07/more-warming-a-threat-to-the-hajj-and-human-habitation-in-the-middle-east/

-snip-

The Hajj comes off like a running of the bulls at times, except it involves putting 3 million Muslims in a small space and the biggest danger is other people.

It’s interesting to ponder what will happen to the Hajj in the future as climate change makes the physical experience more life-threatening and virtual reality advances. Wonder if any of the Muslim members have any thoughts on this.

[Хahar 🤔]

Virtual reality is not an acceptable substitute for the Hajj, and it would not be taken as such by anyone. It should be noted that the timing of the Hajj, as with everything on the Islamic calendar, shifts by about two weeks every year. Currently the Hajj is in midsummer, but there will be periods when it is in midwinter, which should continue to be manageable even if some further warming takes place. It is not inconceivable that those years become the only years when the Hajj is possible.

It may also be noted that the Hajj is actually not an absolute religious obligation, even though it is often described in a way that would suggest that it is. In fact, the Hajj is obligatory for those who can afford it, which is an important caveat. Unsurprisingly, for the vast majority of Islamic history the Hajj has been impossible except for a privileged few, and mass access to the Hajj is a basically modern phenomenon. If access to the Hajj were limited by its being made so expensive that the vast majority of Muslims once again found access unfeasible, there would be no inherent problem from an Islamic standpoint.

All that being said, the Sauds' self-proclaimed title of custodian of the holy cities is an important one, and it is responsible for whatever soft power they hold. If they were unable to guarantee access to the Hajj, their prestige in the Islamic world would immediately evaporate. For that reason, massive public works to mitigate the effects of climate are more realistic than any alternative. Whatever expense such a project might entail would be politically worthwhile.

[DC Al Fine]

Virtual reality is not an acceptable substitute for the Hajj, and it would not be taken as such by anyone. It should be noted that the timing of the Hajj, as with everything on the Islamic calendar, shifts by about two weeks every year. Currently the Hajj is in midsummer, but there will be periods when it is in midwinter, which should continue to be manageable even if some further warming takes place. It is not inconceivable that those years become the only years when the Hajj is possible.

It may also be noted that the Hajj is actually not an absolute religious obligation, even though it is often described in a way that would suggest that it is. In fact, the Hajj is obligatory for those who can afford it, which is an important caveat.Unsurprisingly, for the vast majority of Islamic history the Hajj has been impossible except for a privileged few, and mass access to the Hajj is a basically modern phenomenon. If access to the Hajj were limited by its being made so expensive that the vast majority of Muslims once again found access unfeasible, there would be no inherent problem from an Islamic standpoint.

All that being said, the Sauds' self-proclaimed title of custodian of the holy cities is an important one, and it is responsible for whatever soft power they hold. If they were unable to guarantee access to the Hajj, their prestige in the Islamic world would immediately evaporate. For that reason, massive public works to mitigate the effects of climate are more realistic than any alternative. Whatever expense such a project might entail would be politically worthwhile.

Out of curiosity, how much does going on Hajj cost?

[Samof94]

Virtual reality is not an acceptable substitute for the Hajj, and it would not be taken as such by anyone. It should be noted that the timing of the Hajj, as with everything on the Islamic calendar, shifts by about two weeks every year. Currently the Hajj is in midsummer, but there will be periods when it is in midwinter, which should continue to be manageable even if some further warming takes place. It is not inconceivable that those years become the only years when the Hajj is possible.

It may also be noted that the Hajj is actually not an absolute religious obligation, even though it is often described in a way that would suggest that it is. In fact, the Hajj is obligatory for those who can afford it, which is an important caveat.Unsurprisingly, for the vast majority of Islamic history the Hajj has been impossible except for a privileged few, and mass access to the Hajj is a basically modern phenomenon. If access to the Hajj were limited by its being made so expensive that the vast majority of Muslims once again found access unfeasible, there would be no inherent problem from an Islamic standpoint.

All that being said, the Sauds' self-proclaimed title of custodian of the holy cities is an important one, and it is responsible for whatever soft power they hold. If they were unable to guarantee access to the Hajj, their prestige in the Islamic world would immediately evaporate. For that reason, massive public works to mitigate the effects of climate are more realistic than any alternative. Whatever expense such a project might entail would be politically worthwhile.

Out of curiosity, how much does going on Hajj cost?

3-4000 US dollars.

[Хahar 🤔]

Out of curiosity, how much does going on Hajj cost?

It depends on what country you're coming from, since quotas for the Hajj are assigned by country and the only way to get the necessary documentation is by buying a travel package from a licensed agent in your country. Typically if you're coming from the United States the cost will end up being something in the very general ballpark of $10,000. From, say, Bangladesh, the price would be about half that. Part of the difference comes from the added expense of travel, but the bigger difference is that if you're American you'll be staying in luxury accommodations, because that's the only option that American packages offer. It's a strange system.