Did George H W Bush ever have a chance in 1992?

[Cyrusman]

Within the 1992 calendar year and close to the election did he ever stand a chance of winning or was it pretty much a forgone conclusion he would lose and lose badly?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Contrary to the post election narrative, his best chance came when Perot got back in in October. His own campaign at the time said this was what they wanted, as it would help them "draw even with Clinton". After the election dishonest morons like James Carville's wife blamed the loss on Perot. It was very clear that Perot hurt Clinton much more in swing areas like the midwest, look at IA which went from Dukakis +11 to Clinton +6, and WI which Clinton only won by 4 despite it voting for Dukakis and throwing out a GOP senator for a progressive Democrat by 7 points.

So, in a nutshell, his best chance would have been Perot getting in a month earlier or something.

[OSR stands with Israel]

He didnt lose that bad actually as the tipping point state was decided by 4.5 points which isnt really that much and that is with the Democratic challenger running arguably the greatest campaign in modern history.

[Sir Mohamed]

You have to change too many fundamentals to turn it around or have a completely inept D candidate without Perot in the race. HW wasn't as much DOA as Carter, but far more than Trump in 2020.

[OSR stands with Israel]

You have to change too many fundamentals to turn it around or have a completely inept D candidate without Perot in the race. HW wasn't as much DOA as Carter, but far more than Trump in 2020.

HW lost the tipping point state by 4.5 points while Trump lost it by 0.6 so its not as big of a difference as people think(Romney lost it by over 5). Against Clinton I dont think HW has a chance but against someone like Cuomo or Jay Rockefeller I think Bush could win as HW could run the typcial GOP strategy against Democrats against them which is accuse them of being weak on crime and for tax and spend politics.

Clinton caused that playbook to be thrown out and HW didnt know what to do and ran arguably the worst campaign by any incumbent president in modern history.

[Cyrusman]

You have to change too many fundamentals to turn it around or have a completely inept D candidate without Perot in the race. HW wasn't as much DOA as Carter, but far more than Trump in 2020.

HW lost the tipping point state by 4.5 points while Trump lost it by 0.6 so its not as big of a difference as people think(Romney lost it by over 5). Against Clinton I dont think HW has a chance but against someone like Cuomo or Jay Rockefeller I think Bush could win as HW could run the typcial GOP strategy against Democrats against them which is accuse them of being weak on crime and for tax and spend politics.

Clinton caused that playbook to be thrown out and HW didnt know what to do and ran arguably the worst campaign by any incumbent president in modern history.

I was too young to remember but why was his campaign so bad? I know about the whole debate incident and him looking at his watch and I’m aware he pissed off his base when he raised taxes, but what else went wrong?

[OSR stands with Israel]

You have to change too many fundamentals to turn it around or have a completely inept D candidate without Perot in the race. HW wasn't as much DOA as Carter, but far more than Trump in 2020.

HW lost the tipping point state by 4.5 points while Trump lost it by 0.6 so its not as big of a difference as people think(Romney lost it by over 5). Against Clinton I dont think HW has a chance but against someone like Cuomo or Jay Rockefeller I think Bush could win as HW could run the typcial GOP strategy against Democrats against them which is accuse them of being weak on crime and for tax and spend politics.

Clinton caused that playbook to be thrown out and HW didnt know what to do and ran arguably the worst campaign by any incumbent president in modern history.

I was too young to remember but why was his campaign so bad? I know about the whole debate incident and him looking at his watch and I’m aware he pissed off his base when he raised taxes, but what else went wrong?

The issue is he didn’t know how to run a campaign against Clinton due to him making the established Republican playbook obselte and thus was unable to ever set the narrative in the campaign.

[Mr. Smith]

You have to change too many fundamentals to turn it around or have a completely inept D candidate without Perot in the race. HW wasn't as much DOA as Carter, but far more than Trump in 2020.

HW lost the tipping point state by 4.5 points while Trump lost it by 0.6 so its not as big of a difference as people think(Romney lost it by over 5). Against Clinton I dont think HW has a chance but against someone like Cuomo or Jay Rockefeller I think Bush could win as HW could run the typcial GOP strategy against Democrats against them which is accuse them of being weak on crime and for tax and spend politics.

Clinton caused that playbook to be thrown out and HW didnt know what to do and ran arguably the worst campaign by any incumbent president in modern history.

Trump and Carter were worse.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

He didnt lose that bad actually as the tipping point state was decided by 4.5 points which isnt really that much and that is with the Democratic challenger running arguably the greatest campaign in modern history.

When people look at the 1992 electoral map landslide, they assume the NPV was as well. Bill Clinton won the NPV by a relatively modest 5.5%, only 1% more then Biden's 2020 win.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The recession hurt him and he wasn't popular. Obviously he would have won if the election was held 18 months earlier.

[dw93]

You have to change too many fundamentals to turn it around or have a completely inept D candidate without Perot in the race. HW wasn't as much DOA as Carter, but far more than Trump in 2020.

HW lost the tipping point state by 4.5 points while Trump lost it by 0.6 so its not as big of a difference as people think(Romney lost it by over 5). Against Clinton I dont think HW has a chance but against someone like Cuomo or Jay Rockefeller I think Bush could win as HW could run the typcial GOP strategy against Democrats against them which is accuse them of being weak on crime and for tax and spend politics.

Clinton caused that playbook to be thrown out and HW didnt know what to do and ran arguably the worst campaign by any incumbent president in modern history.

Trump and Carter were worse.

Agreed that Trump's was worse, as he was in a strong position to win (though never by more than he did in 2016) in the 6 months prior to the pandemic and even in the early stages of the pandemic, and did everything in his power to shoot himself in the foot.

As for Carter however, I don't know if even a great campaign would've been enough, and I think being too visible in a time of crisis would've caused even more damage to him, as I think Trump being too visible and on the campaign trail in a time of crisis arguably hurt him.

[Suburbia]

Yes, Republicans should have probably won a fourth consecutive term in 1992, based on paper because:

1. Democratic 1992 field was weak, big names opted out for 1996 when a GOP fifth term would have been impossible.....voters don't like dynasties, hence why Gore 2000, McCain 2008, and Clinton 2016 failed.....Reagan was a skilled campaigner and Reaganism put Bush 41 over the top in 1988.

2. The Cold War and foreign policy strength

3. Clinton could have been tied to the Democrats post-1960s blues, tying him to Carter

[sg0508]

I think there was another major variable. The conservative, strait-laced, holier than thou hangover was in full effect. The conservative 80s may have tired the electorate.

Clinton's interview where he and Hilary effectively admitted their marital challenges, among other things probably turned a lot of people onto their campaign. It was suddenly "okay" not to be perfect, to have smoked weed, dodged the draft, not be the stay at home mom, had an affair or been divorced.

I think this was an important change that the electorate favored at that time.

[Asenath Waite]

He didnt lose that bad actually as the tipping point state was decided by 4.5 points which isnt really that much and that is with the Democratic challenger running arguably the greatest campaign in modern history.

Shows how conservative the country really was at the time.