McCain 2008-Obama 2012 voters

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

I don’t know how representative he was but an old friend of mine who was a devout Catholic from New Jersey that was staunchly pro-life, centrist on economic issues and kind of a neocon on foreign policy but more liberal on immigration and avowedly anti-racist. He was a pretty partisan Republican in the Bush era but in 2012 came around to voting for Obama just because he felt the GOP had lost its mind and sort of left him. Last time I saw him was around 2018 and though he still hadn’t changed any of his views was now a partisan Dem and hardcore anti-Trumper.

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

There's some in SE Ohio, from the looks of it.

This would also describe Hispanic-specifically Cuban-voters in SE Florida and suburban, middle-class voters in New York City (particularly Staten Island) and in New Jersey. Obama flipped Staten Island, which he had lost in 2008, and significantly improved in Miami-Dade County compared to 2008, which is why he was able to win Florida despite swings against him in the remainder of the state.

I think that catching Bin Laden may have bought him some good Will with conservative law and order types in the New York area and perhaps was a factor in flipping Staten Island.