Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Wow.  Nikkie has 宮城(Miyagi) 福島(Fukushima) and 奈良(Nara) (for JRP) as lean opposition all due to the JRP surge.  奈良(Nara) is out of nowhere.  On the flip side, they have 岩手(Iwate) as lean LDP when everyone else has lean CDP.

If Ishin wins Nara would that be a sign of their evolution from "the Osaka party" to "the Kansai party"?

Also with respect to Sanseito, I noticed that one of their stops seemed to draw a bit of a crowd

https://twitter.com/sanseito_johoku/status/1543168924992544769

Any idea where they'd be likely to do best and what do you think is the biggest draw for their apparent surge?

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

With the close results in the multi member districts making such a key difference, how do regular voters determine which candidate of the party they prefer to go with? I understand Komeito's voting networks are extremely precise but how does a regular CDP or LDP voter make sure that their vote is efficient?

Also, the one thing that I expected last night was that Sanseito would overperform after seeing them draw crowds of a size no >1% party could garner. It seemed doubtful that their likely voters would be swayed by a sympathy vote.

https://twitter.com/sanseito_johoku/status/1545702141666672640

The assassination probably cost Ishin Nara and Kyoto though.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

The NHK obsessed party and Sanseito are at 10% according to recent polling. CDP and JCP at 8 and 5% in the PR vote, to the benefit of Reiwa and SDP at 7% and 3% respectively.

The traditional parties are really taking a beating.

Where did you find the poll for RS at 7%? I haven't seen anything close to it on either miraisyakai's Twitter or from Go2Senkyo.

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1559942882668298248

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

From what I've seen from Gunosy, they tend to overestimate the newer parties with younger voters (Ishin, Reiwa, Sanseito) at the expense of the parties disproportionately reliant on the votes of the elderly (CDP, Komeito, JCP). Still, I wouldn't be surprised if they're accurately picking up the direction of change even if they're overstating the magnitude.