Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10

[jaichind]

TBS's offensive against Unification Church continues.  This time it is a small Japanese company founded by Unification Church members that facilitated DPKR's purchase of old Russian submarines in the 1990s.



Unification Church's links to DPKR always confused me given their anti-Communist stance.  These links also show that Korean nationalism is part of the  Unification Church mandate which is fine by me but totally blows up the LDP narrative.

[jaichind]

MBS report:  From the 1990s to the 2000s the Unification Church sent about 100 billion JPY a year from Japan to its HQ in ROK. Some of that money was then used to invest in DPRK.  Again, the Unification Church can do what it wants with its money but this blows up the LDP narrative.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/70e3fda53fda7a5ec862b5d810dfafa5d235837c

The first real break in the Japanese political class on the pro-Ukraine position. 

JRP Upper House MP 鈴木宗男(Suzuki Muneo) who is also the leader of NPD said that reports of Ukraine's success on the battlefield are US/UK propaganda and that if Ukraine cannot win on its own without outside help they should seek peace.

鈴木宗男(Suzuki Muneo)'s relationship with Russia has been volatile.  His main claim to fame is trying to get back the Northern Islands USSR occupied at the end of WWII.  His tactics have ranged from hostility and friendship with Russia.  He is clearly in the friendship phase.

[jaichind]

The New ANN poll has the Kishida approval/disapproval curve moving closer toward the 30% danger zone.


ANN poll also had a 56-23 majority in favor of removing the Unification Church from the list of recognized religious organizations.

[jaichind]

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Unification-Church-and-politics/In-a-first-Japan-plans-to-question-Unification-Church-about-operations

"In a first, Japan plans to question Unification Church about operations"

Pressed by falling poll numbers the Japanese government begins an investigation of the Unification Church under the Religious Corporation Law which could lead to it being revoked as a recognized religion.  Given all the political pressure I suspect this might get turned into a witchhunt.  But that seems what public opinion wants.

[jaichind]

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Unification-Church-and-politics/In-a-first-Japan-plans-to-question-Unification-Church-about-operations

"In a first, Japan plans to question Unification Church about operations"

Pressed by falling poll numbers the Japanese government begins an investigation of the Unification Church under the Religious Corporation Law which could lead to it being revoked as a recognized religion.  Given all the political pressure I suspect this might get turned into a witchhunt.  But that seems what public opinion wants.

Of course, the big danger for Kishida in doing this is if the investigation does not reveal anything about the Unification Church that would lead to it being revoked as a recognized religion that would "prove" that the LDP is under the control of the Unification Church.  So Kishida almost has to hope something comes up.

[jaichind]

It seems Kishida did not get buy-in from or even bother telling KP about starting investigations into Unification Church.  Most likely he knows how they are going to react.

This turn of events is a nightmare for KP.  KP is controlled by Soka Gakkai where if one calls Unification Church a cult then one can call Soka Gakkai a cult.  The only reason KP allied with LDP in the late 1990s was due to their fear that after the 1995 Aum Shinrikyo cult subway attack somehow Soka Gakkai will be shut down unless KP finds protection from being allied with LDP.  Up until the 1990s, KP had a history of being fairly anti-LDP.

Now, this nightmare is coming back with this Unification Church investigation because after that some people might start saying "we should look into other cults, like Soka Gakkai".  One way out is for KP to try to get more nationalist and nativist since the real issue here is not that Unification Church is a cult but it is a Korean-controlled cult.  KP has historically been fairly warm with PRC and has been used by LDP over the years to smooth over issues with PRC.  Part of the reason is that  Soka Gakkai is active in PRC and hopes to expand its activities there.  KP and  Soka Gakkai might have to drop this and go full nationalist in response to this.

[jaichind]

Approval/Disapproval of Abe state funeral has stayed the same since the funeral

[jaichind]

Kishida seems to be flip-flopping on the Unification Church investigations

First, when a CDP MP asked Kishida to promise that these investigations will lead to Unification Church being revoked as a recognized religion yesterday, Kishida refused and said that unless the investigation finds criminal behavior being revoked as a  recognized religion  is unlikely


Today after a firestorm of pressure Kishida said that criminal activity is not necessary to lead Unification Church being revoked as a recognized religion


That is a statement that is going to lead to a freakout in KP

[jaichind]

Latest JX PR voting intentions poll with change from Sept poll

LDP     27.5 (+1.7)
KP        5.2 (-0.2)
DIY       1.8 (+0.4)
PNHK    0.6 (----)
JRP     13.1 (-1.4)
DPP      2.1 (-0.3)
CDP    17.1(-0.2)
RS       1.5 (-1.4 )
SDP     1.0 (-0.7)
JCP     10.1(+2.6)



LDP recovers ground from JRP and KP.  Mostly reversion to Aug numbers on the Right side of the spectrum.  The main difference is the JCP surge at the expense of other Center-Left opposition parties.

[jaichind]

Due to stagnating wages plus now a large drop in the value of JPY, there are more and more Japanese going to work abroad.   Here is an ANN interview with a Japanese man that doubled his income by going to work in Australia.  The last time this sort of made sense was in the 1970s and back then with Japan's still fast-growing economy it still made no sense to give up that upside just for short-term higher wages.  Now the logic is different.

[Logical]

USD/Yen hit 150 earlier today, bringing more pain to Japanese consumers.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The LDP is losing, or has already lost, control over the narrative. Not a good thing for the government. Would not be too surprised to see the LDP lose a lot of seats at the next election (though far from enough to actually threaten their hold on power).

[jaichind]

The LDP is losing, or has already lost, control over the narrative. Not a good thing for the government. Would not be too surprised to see the LDP lose a lot of seats at the next election (though far from enough to actually threaten their hold on power).

This is where the decentralized nature of the LDP and Japanese politics helps LDP.  Even if the LDP brand is hurt badly as long as the local LDP kingpins are viewed in a positive light plus the opposition split the LDP will lose seats but pull some surprise bunnies out of a hat.  Now if the LDP gets into infighting like in the 2006-2009 era then yes it will be had.

[omar04]

An article on Yen depreciation:
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20221020/k10013862341000.html

[jaichind]

TBS continues its offensive against Unification Church.  They have yet another one-hour special about Unification Church.  This time they focus on one broken family that they claim was destroyed by Unification Church.

It focused on a family where this man's wife became obsessed with giving money to the church, became violent towards her husband, and was negligent to her son. The son eventually committed suicide by self-immolation.


The mother was absent from family life, taking long trips to Korea while her son struggled. When he dropped out of junior high school, she blamed an evil spirit that haunted their family's land. She sold it and donated the money to the church.


It then followed the man when he attempts to meet with Church officials to seek the return of his family's money. He pleads with them to either allow him to enter their building or come out and talk, but they refuse.

Unification Church held a press conference where they played a video of this man's ex-wife, who is still a church member, claiming that he is lying and that the church is not to blame for their son's death.

This entire affair sounds so much like Scientology Church vs ex-members media battles.

[jaichind]

BOJ intervenes to stop the falling JPY, again.

[Tintrlvr]

BOJ intervenes to stop the falling JPY, again.

Boo, let it get to 200:1 before my trip in April!

[jaichind]

Trouble is brewing for LDP in the Nov election for 和歌山(Wakayama) governor in Nov.

The pro-LDP incumbent is going to retire.  二階(Nikai) faction leader 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) who is the MP from the 3rd district wanted to push his own candidate for LDP to support but got pushback from the prefecture LDP which is controlled by the LDP Upper House MP 世耕弘成(Sekō Hiroshige). 

The prefecture LDP which is controlled by the LDP Upper House MP 世耕弘成(Sekō Hiroshige) proceeded for LDP to back the pro-LDP mayor of 和歌山市(Wakayama City).  But that is getting pushback from the prefecture association of village and township heads (all de facto LDP background). 

In the meantime, the DPP MP from the 1st district 岸本周平(Kishimoto Shuhei) has resigned his seat and has indicated that he will run for the governor's seat.  It seems his motivation is that due to redistricting next Lower House election the number of seats in 和歌山(Wakayama) will go from 3 to 2 and he will most likely be defeated by the LDP MP from the 2nd district where he will have to face so he might as well jump to try to become governor.  It seems the prefecture association of village and township heads wants to back 岸本周平(Kishimoto Shuhei) who is also trying to get support from 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro).

There is a good reason for 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) to open to backing 岸本周平(Kishimoto Shuhei).   二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) will not run for re-election but is hoping his son will take over his seats.  But  LDP Upper House MP 世耕弘成(Sekō Hiroshige) is said to want to run for that seat.  So 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) might have the incentive to back this LDP rebellion in supporting the ex-DPP MP 岸本周平(Kishimoto Shuhei) run as opposed to the likely "official" LDP candidate.   If so the election will most likely be a LDP civil war plus a JCP candidate.    The Center-Left vote most likely will vote 岸本周平(Kishimoto Shuhei) so how the LDP KP and JRP vote splits will decide who will win this likely LDP civil war.

In the end, LDP Upper House MP 世耕弘成(Sekō Hiroshige) blinked and the LDP will back the former DPP MP 岸本周平(Kishimoto Shuhei) as a non-JCP consensus candidate for governor.  So this race will become non-compeititive.

[jaichind]

和歌山(Wakayama) governor race resolved the final relevant election before the start of the next prefecture assembly election cycle starting with 茨城(Ibaraki) prefecture assembly election in Dec 2022 would be the election for the open seat for mayor of 那覇市(Naha) in 沖縄(Okinawa) this weekend.

那覇市(Naha) is fairly anti-base so the anti-base bloc should win over LDP-KP in a two-way race.  The anti-base bloc will run the son of the former anti-base governor and backed by the current anti-base governor.  LDP-KP will back a former anti-base deputy mayor that has the support of the current anti-base mayor that is stepping down.  In other words, LDP-KP is hoping to steal a seat by running a rebel from the anti-base camp.

[jaichind]

Exit polls for the mayor of 那覇市(Naha) in 沖縄(Okinawa) have it neck-to-neck between anti-base grand alliance and LDP-KP

[jaichind]

那覇市(Naha) mayor race (21% counted)

LDP-KP                56.9%
Anti-Base Bloc      43.1%  (CDP-RS-SDP-OSMP-JCP)

[jaichind]

那覇市(Naha) mayor race (57% counted)

LDP-KP                54.4%
Anti-Base Bloc      45.6%  (CDP-RS-SDP-OSMP-JCP)

Looks like LDP-KP most likely got this.  Major blow to the Anti-base bloc

[jaichind]

那覇市(Naha) mayor race (83% counted)

Race called for LDP-KP

LDP-KP                54.5%
Anti-Base Bloc      45.5%  (CDP-RS-SDP-OSMP-JCP)

[jaichind]

那覇市(Naha) mayor race (Final results)

LDP-KP                54.2%
Anti-Base Bloc      45.8%  (CDP-RS-SDP-OSMP-JCP)

The trend toward LDP in 沖縄(Okinawa) since 2021 continues.