Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is likelihood Kishida is not PM by the end of the year?

[jaichind]

What is likelihood Kishida is not PM by the end of the year?

Nil.  If you dig into the various polling support for Kishida and the Abe state funeral are still reasonably high amount core LDP voters.

[jaichind]

Jiji poll pushes Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval curve into negative territory

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is likelihood Kishida is not PM by the end of the year?

Nil.  If you dig into the various polling support for Kishida and the Abe state funeral are still reasonably high amount core LDP voters.

I wonder how huge the divide is between LDP and opposition supporters is on the issue of the Abe funeral and the Unification Church more generally.

[jaichind]

What is likelihood Kishida is not PM by the end of the year?

Nil.  If you dig into the various polling support for Kishida and the Abe state funeral are still reasonably high amount core LDP voters.

I wonder how huge the divide is between LDP and opposition supporters is on the issue of the Abe funeral and the Unification Church more generally.

The gap is quite significant based on some cross tabs I have seen.  I could not find any online except for this one from over a month ago.  The top line has gotten worse for Abe's state funeral, but this gives a rough idea of the partisan gap.  KP and JRP supporters are not so hot on the Abe state funeral idea most likely due to the Unification Church issue.

[jaichind]

Going back to look at the 2022 Upper House results when compared to Upper House election results in the past, one thing struck me.   The distribution of seats is unfavorable to CDP and opposition forces relative to the past distribution of seats.  In theory redistricting should help the Center-Left since it shifts seats away from rural LDP strongholds toward urban areas where the LDP is weaker.

But the way this redistricting has worked in the last couple of decades has been to work to reduce the number of 2- member seats toward more 1- member and 4- member districts.  2- member districts are the worst for LDP.  Unless LDP takes the risk of nominating 2 candidates they will have to cede 1 of the 2 seats to the opposition.  But even in very strong areas LDP running 2 candidates tend to lead to conflict within the LDP to figure out how to allocate votes.  It also draws in JRP who see a chance at winning a seat and eating into the LDP vote and consolidates the non-JCP opposition vote who now see a clear chance at winning a seat but are also in danger of losing one where non-JCP opposition turnout will make a difference.

In 1998 the distribution of district types was
1-  24
2-  17
3-   4
4-   1

But by 2022 the distribution of district types was
1-  32
2-    4
3-    3
4-    4
6-    1

With a large drop in the number of 2- member districts and a large increase in 1- member districts where LDP has the upper hand in a large majority of 1- member seats.

I "re-ran" the 2022 Upper House elections using the 1998 seat distribution and got
LDP    44   
KP       5   
JRP      3   
DPP     2   
OPPN   8  (CDP and DPP backed independent, sometimes with JCP support as well)   
CDP   13   
RS       0   
JCP      1


As opposed to the real 2022 result
LDP    45   
KP       7   
JRP      4   
DPP     2   
OPPN   5   
CDP     9   
RS       1   
JCP      1

So if we use the 1998 seat districting methods, the Center-Left would win 30.3% of the seats in 2022 as opposed to 23.0% of the seats using the 2022 seat distracting methods.  The seat LDP lost due to redistricting away from LDP stronghold rural prefectures were more than made up by the removal of 2- member districts and an increase in 1- member districts where LDP won most of them.

This 1- member seat increase and reduction of a bunch of 2- member districts do not make that much of a difference in a close election but will exaggerate the scale of the LDP landslide in strong LDP years which in 2022 would count as one.

[jaichind]

The New Mainichi poll has a massively bad  Kishda cabinet approval/disapproval at 29(-7)/64(+10)


Party ID also had a big drop for LDP

LDP   23 (-6)
KP       4 (+2)
DIY      2 (-2)
PNHK   1
JRP    13
DPP     4
CDP   10
RS       5 (+1)
SDP     1
JCP      5

Part of the drop is some KP voters that were "hiding out" moving back to KP from LDP



Abe state funeral support/oppose 27(-3)/62(+9)


It seems people who are getting more negative about Abe's state funeral are also now getting more negative about the Kishida cabinet and now also on LDP


This is enough to push the average approval/disapproval curve well into the negatives

[jaichind]

With these new bad polls and if you look at the cabinet approval/disapproval curve


And party support curve


We can the current 青木(Aoki) index [Approval Rating of the Cabinet + Support for the ruling Party] of around 70.

Aoki index of 70 maps a defeat of the LDP in an election if the non-JCP opposition parties are united.

In both the 2007 Upper House and 2017 Lower House elections the Aoki index was around 70.  The LDP was defeated in 2007 due to a united non-JCP opposition while LDP won in 2017 due to the non-JCP opposition split.

So the current state of the Kishida cabinet in terms of polling is still not that bad given the split nature of the non-JCP opposition.  But if the Aoki index drops below 60 then that tends to be the level where there might trigger internal coups against the PM.

[jaichind]

Trouble is brewing for LDP in the Nov election for 和歌山(Wakayama) governor in Nov.

The pro-LDP incumbent is going to retire.  二階(Nikai) faction leader 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) who is the MP from the 3rd district wanted to push his own candidate for LDP to support but got pushback from the prefecture LDP which is controlled by the LDP Upper House MP 世耕弘成(Sekō Hiroshige). 

The prefecture LDP which is controlled by the LDP Upper House MP 世耕弘成(Sekō Hiroshige) proceeded for LDP to back the pro-LDP mayor of 和歌山市(Wakayama City).  But that is getting pushback from the prefecture association of village and township heads (all de facto LDP background). 

In the meantime, the DPP MP from the 1st district 岸本周平(Kishimoto Shuhei) has resigned his seat and has indicated that he will run for the governor's seat.  It seems his motivation is that due to redistricting next Lower House election the number of seats in 和歌山(Wakayama) will go from 3 to 2 and he will most likely be defeated by the LDP MP from the 2nd district where he will have to face so he might as well jump to try to become governor.  It seems the prefecture association of village and township heads wants to back 岸本周平(Kishimoto Shuhei) who is also trying to get support from 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro).

There is a good reason for 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) to open to backing 岸本周平(Kishimoto Shuhei).   二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) will not run for re-election but is hoping his son will take over his seats.  But  LDP Upper House MP 世耕弘成(Sekō Hiroshige) is said to want to run for that seat.  So 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) might have an incentive to back this LDP rebellion in supporting the ex-DPP MP 岸本周平(Kishimoto Shuhei) run as opposed to the likely "official" LDP candidate.   If so the election will most likely be a LDP civil war plus a JCP candidate.    The Center-Left vote most likely will vote 岸本周平(Kishimoto Shuhei) so how the LDP KP and JRP vote splits will decide who will win this likely LDP civil war.

[jaichind]

For the LDP and especially the Abe faction this entire Abe state funeral is turning into a self-goal.  It was meant to raise the stature of the LDP and especially the Abe faction and now it is doing the opposite.  At this stage, this is turning into the 2021 Tokyo Olympics which was part of the events that killed the Suga administration.  It is going to hurt but you have to go through with it and just hope people move on after the funeral. 

[Not Me, Us]

Why are people so against a state funeral for Abe? If a former American President was assassinated, I would absolutely expect a state funeral, it'd be weird if they didn't do one.

[jaichind]

Why are people so against a state funeral for Abe? If a former American President was assassinated, I would absolutely expect a state funeral, it'd be weird if they didn't do one.

A few things

1) In theory state funeral is reserved for someone in the Imperial Family.  There are laws that allow for a state funeral for a non-member but there is a view that the Kishida cabinet, LDP, and Abe faction took a lot of liberties with that law to push this forward
2) The cost of the funeral seems to grow way past more than promised.  This gets people upset in an era where JPY is falling which is introducing imported inflation.
3) The entire linage between Abe and Unification Church coming out after his assassination has people getting more negative about Abe (from both Far Right and Center-Left)

[jaichind]

It seems the ROK branch of the Unification Church already held their wake for Abe.  When these images make it back to Japan it is just going to add fuel to the fire.  If I were Unification Church I will try to hide under a rock for a few months.

[CascadianIndy]

New Mainichi poll's out.

https://mainichi.jp/articles/20220918/k00/00m/010/143000c

Kishida cabinet approval is at 29% (-7 from last month), the first time they've broken 30% since the new admnistration took power in October 2021. Meanwhile, disapproval has spiked to 64% (+10).

As for party support, the LDP is at 23% (-6), Ishin is at 13% (-), CDP is at 10% (-), JCP is at 5% (-), Reiwa Shinsengumi is at 5% (+1), DPFP at 4% (-), Komeito at 4% (+2), Sanseito at 2% (-2), while not supporting any parties has risen to 29% (+4).

[jaichind]

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/japan-needs-stimulus-package-of-at-least-%24105-bln-ruling-party-official

"Japan needs stimulus package of at least $105 bln - ruling party official"

Funny how the General Secretary of the LDP now says that Japan's economy now needs an economic stimulus right after Kishida cabinet approval falls rapidly.

[jaichind]

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/09/20/national/ldp-unification-church-updated-ties/

"LDP to update list of members linked to Unification Church"

LDP had produced a list of LDP MPs that had links to the Unification Church but more and more information is coming out about such links with LDP MPs that was not on the list.  It seems the LDP will have to produce an updated list.  I think everything comes down to what "links" mean.

If you use the CDP standard

https://www.sankei.com/article/20220914-DILUT45CMVMTZJPJ7VBSW67SXE/

CDP MP resigns from all CDP party posts because he exchanged business cards with a Unification Church affiliate about 5 or 6 years ago. 

I guess CDP want to go all out to attack LDP for Unification Church which means they must be 100% pure when it comes to Unification Church contacts.

Where if you were in a dentist waiting room with someone from Unification Church for 10 minutes 10 years ago counts as "links" then everyone has "links"

[jaichind]

More polls came in and the Kishida cabinet approval continues to fall

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval curve.  Approval of 30 is viewed as the threshold when Kishida might have to go


Abe state funeral support/oppose average curve

[jaichind]

Latest JX PR voting intentions poll with change from Aug poll

LDP     25.8 (-1.6)
KP        5.5 (+0.3)
DIY       1.4 (-0.7)
PNHK    0.6 (-0.1)
JRP     14.5 (+1.4)
DPP      2.4 (-0.5)
CDP    17.3(-0.1)
RS       2.9 (-0.8 )
SDP     1.7 (+0.2)
JCP      7.5 (-0.9)

A bunch of parties losing support with JRP as the only gainer.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

More polls came in and the Kishida cabinet approval continues to fall

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval curve.  Approval of 30 is viewed as the threshold when Kishida might have to go



Abe state funeral support/oppose average curve

Good lord that's a bad trend.
The funeral cannot happen soon enough for the LDP.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/dff443c4308cfaae9aec67a9147e35189e341deb

Looks like someone tried to immolate himself in the government district to protest the Abe state funeral

[jaichind]

Some interesting facts about Abe's state funeral

a) It seems Obama will not attend which is a big letdown for the LDP.  It seems LDP insiders view Harris as a lightweight (they are right) and they were hoping for Obama which they will not get.  Some in the Abe faction are hoping for Trump to come and it is not clear if he will.  Most likely not.
b) The Emperor and Empress will not attend the funeral.  This is not a snub as by tradition the Emperor and Empress will not attend funerals of anyone side their own parents.  I think attending the UK Queen's funeral  last week was a major exception
c) It seems every that attends the funeral is asked to wear only white masks (this follows the Chinese tradition that the Japanese copied that white represents the color of mourning) and only drink water during the 5 hours of the funeral.  If you think this is extreme during ancient Chinese times there were forms of mourning where after the death of a parent one is not allowed to have sexual relations with your spouse (or anyone else of course) for up to 3 years.  Of course in only rare cases will anyone follow through on this form.

[jaichind]

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20220922/p2g/00m/0na/041000c
"Japan asks foreign guests to wear face masks at Abe's state funeral"

It seems all guests at the Abe state funeral will have to wear masks

On the flip side, the Japanese Emperor and Empress did not wear masks at the UK Queen's funeral last week.  Now it turns out that the Queen of Denmark tested positive for COVID.


The Japanese Emperor and Empress who did not wear masks in the UK immediately put them on when they got back to Japan.

It hard to believe this is "about the science" and not really just about "social custom"

[jaichind]

Looking at the rest of 2022 the only real interesting elections left are

a) 和歌山(Wakayama) governor election in Nov where an open seat will most likely lead to a LDP civil war
b) 茨城(Ibaraki) prefectural assembly election in Dec.  This election kicks off the 2022-2025 local election cycle where there most of which will take place in the spring of 2023.  The LDP has been very strong in the 茨城(Ibaraki) assembly for years where it has really dominated LDP vs various LDP rebels vs LDP rebel factions vs assorted opposition candidates.  The difference between the various LDP rebels and the LDP rebel faction is that the LDP rebels tend to join the LDP caucus after getting elected as a rebel while the LDP rebel faction is "party-ized" in the assembly and sit as a separate caucus

The leader of the LDP rebel faction joined CDP last election leading to most of his LDP rebel faction going back to the LDP as LDP rebels (which means they are most likely going to caucus with LDP if they are elected)  So the scale of the LDP victory will be even bigger this time around.  It will be interesting to see if Center-Left candidates can pick up some support of LDP rebel faction voters from last election in 2018.

[jaichind]

There has been a surge of news books (and republished old books) and magazine specials on Unification Church

This one has the title "The corruption of the LDP by Unification Church"


It seems Unification Church is turning into Masons-Illuminati-Trilateral Commission

[jaichind]

Abe's state funeral came and gone.  From the LDP point of view hopefully, this will mean the media frenzy over Unification Church will end.  Most likely note.