Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10
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Author Topic: Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10  (Read 25518 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #400 on: July 08, 2022, 05:32:12 AM »

Off the top of my head what the PR vote will look like now

           Vote share     Seats
LDP          38.5%       20
KP            13.0%         7
PP              2.0%         1
PNHK          1.0%         0
JRP           13.5%         7
DPP            4.0%         2
CDP          14.0%         7
RS              4.0%         2
SDP            1.5%         0
JCP             7.5%         4
Others         1.0%

LDP at 38.5% which is close to the 2 Koizumi landslides of 2001 and 2005 (38.6% and 38.2%).  There were some chances of JRP getting to something like 15.5% or 16%.  Now that is all gone.
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jaichind
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« Reply #401 on: July 08, 2022, 05:35:12 AM »

Other political implications.  The leader of the largest LDP faction is gone and it will be hard to fill Abe's shoes.  Given how much the intra-faction battles are over personality differences versus policy differences this could lead to another round of re-shuffling of the different LDP factional rivalries and alliances.  One possible winner would be Kono Taro.  It seems Abe is really out to get him and if Abe stayed around in LDP politics for another decade he could really retard Kono Taro's chances of being LDP leader.  Now that Abe is gone former PM and Aso faction leader Aso Taro will become the LDP party elder.  Kono Taro is in the Aso faction plus Kono Taro's father and former LDP Prez Kono Yohei being Aso's old benefactor all means the LDP hierarchy just got a lot friendlier to Kono.
What about Shigeru Ishiba?

Yeah, he benefits too.  But by not running in the 2021 LDP Prez race he is to some extent saying he is out of the game. Kishida will be around for a while and by the time Kishida steps down it might be Kono will have too much support for Ishiba to a real threat to him.
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jaichind
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« Reply #402 on: July 08, 2022, 05:39:43 AM »

The opposition parties have confirmed that they will go back to campaigning tomorrow. Like jaichind, I believe a majority for LDP alone is now very likely. LDP-KP 2/3rds majority also possible. Despite that constitutional revision remains quite unlikely. The main concern for the Japanese electorate in the coming months is still going to be inflation.

I think the LDP will have to be careful about constitutional revision.  After this landslide election victory, they will have the numbers but they face the problem of JRP KP and LDP all have different ideas what the revision would be an aggressive push by LDP after the Upper House election could open themselves up to accusations that they are using the sympathy for Abe's assassination for politician gain.  I think they are better off leaving it alone for a year or two to deal with economic issues and for the wounds of Abe's assassination to heal then take up the issue.
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jaichind
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« Reply #403 on: July 08, 2022, 06:14:32 AM »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4rxdRDZPqCw

Is the close-up video of Abe as he was being shot.  Since campaign stump speeches are covered by the media the quality is high.
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jaichind
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« Reply #404 on: July 08, 2022, 06:29:12 AM »

The way I am figuring it is that turnout will rise to where it was in 2021 when LDP got 19.9 million PR votes.  This time they will get around 22 million PR votes.  This will be the highest raw PR votes LDP will get since the 2005 LDP Koizumi landslide when LDP got 25.9 million PR votes.  In 2001 LDP got 38.6% of the vote but due to lower turnout, their vote total was 21.1 million PR votes.  The largest PR vote total record was the DPJ landslide in 2009 when it got 29.8 million PR votes.  I suspect this record might not be broken ever.
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jaichind
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« Reply #405 on: July 08, 2022, 06:40:23 AM »

TBS reports

"The suspect said he had a grudge against a certain religious group and so he attacked Abe since he had a relationship with that group. He heard that Abe was coming to Nara, so he decided to go ahead with the crime."

Not sure which religious group this is.  Sounds totally made-up story by the suspect.

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jaichind
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« Reply #406 on: July 08, 2022, 08:01:40 AM »

Japanese police on Friday named the suspected killer of former prime minister Shinzo Abe as unemployed 41-year-old Tetsuya Yamagami, who told officers he had used a handmade gun.

"That's the suspect's assertion, and we have determined that (the gun) is clearly handmade in appearance, although our analysis is currently ongoing," a police officer in Nara region, where the assassination took place, told reporters.
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jaichind
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« Reply #407 on: July 08, 2022, 08:24:15 AM »

Wow.  Nikkie has 宮城(Miyagi) 福島(Fukushima) and 奈良(Nara) (for JRP) as lean opposition all due to the JRP surge.  奈良(Nara) is out of nowhere.  On the flip side, they have 岩手(Iwate) as lean LDP when everyone else has lean CDP.


Confirmed that Abe campaign stop was last minute so it was harder to set up security.  So it was the Nikkei poll on Nara rhat led to Abe going there last minute and leading to his assassination. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #408 on: July 08, 2022, 08:41:36 AM »

The fact that the LDP deployed their top gun, Abe, last minute to Nara based on a single projection from Nikkei shows

a) LDP internal polling has Nara at high risk of a flip to JRP
OR
b) LDP feel they have CDP's number and view JRP as a long term threat ergo they need to head off any JRK breakthrough at all costs

or both.
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jaichind
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« Reply #409 on: July 08, 2022, 11:22:23 AM »

It seems the assassin was able to disguise his homemade gun (all plastic) to look like a camera so everyone else thought he was taking a picture when he approached Abe from behind and was pointing the gun (which looked like a camera at Abe).
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jaichind
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« Reply #410 on: July 08, 2022, 11:34:23 AM »

Other things I learned from Japanese media coverage

1) Abe was going to campaign in  長野(Nagano) that day but last minute changed it to 奈良(Nara).  A reasonable assumption is that 奈良(Nara) has become competitive and given the sex scandal of the LDP candidate in 長野(Nagano) Abe did not want to appear with a tainted candidate ergo he changed his plans last minute

2) It seems the suspect is unemployed and lived in a tiny apartment whose rent was only around $280 a month.  It shows the difficult economic situation the suspect was living in and I can see him being disgruntled.
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Logical
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« Reply #411 on: July 08, 2022, 11:48:05 AM »
« Edited: July 08, 2022, 04:34:30 PM by Logical »

Other things I learned from Japanese media coverage

1) Abe was going to campaign in  長野(Nagano) that day but last minute changed it to 奈良(Nara).  A reasonable assumption is that 奈良(Nara) has become competitive and given the sex scandal of the LDP candidate in 長野(Nagano) Abe did not want to appear with a tainted candidate ergo he changed his plans last minute


Very Franz Ferdinand this. He did not plan to campaign in Nara but the perfect storm of an abortion scandal and JRP surge led him there. The sudden change in his itinerary also caused security to be lax.
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jaichind
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« Reply #412 on: July 08, 2022, 05:45:13 PM »

NHK: According to someone affiliated with the ongoing police investigation, the suspect said that his mother had become heavily involved with the religious group and had messed up the family’s life by making huge donations, among other things
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jaichind
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« Reply #413 on: July 08, 2022, 06:00:47 PM »

The media is also pointing out another question that is not answered: how did the suspect know that Abe was going to come to 奈良(Nara) that day instead of the published schedule of 長野(Nagano)?  One media outlet said that various LDP campaigns around the country were getting phone calls asking if Abe will speak in their prefecture anytime soon.  It is possible one of the LDP operatives in 奈良(Nara) innocently told the suspect who cold-called them that Abe was coming to 奈良(Nara) that day.   

If this is not figured out in a comprehensive way I can see movies 20-30 years from now called "Abe" in the genre of "JFK" with all sorts of conspiracy theories.   Given Abe's bad relationship with the PRC since he stepped down as PM, I can see such an "Abe" movie having the PRC and Yakuza (why not) in it as villains.
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jaichind
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« Reply #414 on: July 09, 2022, 02:53:37 AM »

Identical headlines in Japan's top 5 newspapers
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jaichind
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« Reply #415 on: July 09, 2022, 03:26:38 AM »

In the PR section, you can write in the name of the party or a name of a candidate on a party list, and the vote count tards said party with the vote total of each candidate determining which ones from the party list are elected

This person voted for a JRP RP candidate (he is a JRP Osaka City Council member) which most likely means the voter is most likely from Osaka
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jaichind
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« Reply #416 on: July 09, 2022, 03:28:00 AM »

A day before the election the campaigning restarts.  Here is a JCP candidate on the stump

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jaichind
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« Reply #417 on: July 09, 2022, 03:30:54 AM »

SDP PR MP and also chairperson of SDP 福島瑞穂(Fukushima Mizuho) is also back on the campaign trial to try to win re-election if SDP gets to around 1.8% PR vote. She is fighting for her political life.  With Abe's assimilation and likely surge of turnout most likely she will not make it.
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« Reply #418 on: July 09, 2022, 04:32:03 AM »

https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/20220708-OYT1T50267/
Quote
Former Prime Minister Abe's constituency "Yamaguchi 4th district" to carry out by-elections ... The schedule depends on the judgment of "1 vote gap"
[Google translated from Japanese to English]
The timing of a Yamaguchi by-election will depend on when the Supreme Court lays down its ruling regarding the discrepancy in the voter weights in the most recent House election.
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jaichind
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« Reply #419 on: July 09, 2022, 05:06:39 AM »

Early voting rates are higher than in 2019 and 2021.  Most of this is before Abe's assassination.
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jaichind
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« Reply #420 on: July 09, 2022, 05:56:44 AM »

The Chinese language media which some links to secondary and stringer media in Japan are saying that their Japanese sources tell them that what the suspect is saying is rambling and contradictory it seems the story is:

The suspect's mother is a member of the Unification Church while the suspect himself is associated with the Unification Church splinter Sanctuary Church which is having some sort of civil war between the two in Japan.  The suspect is convinced that Abe is connected to the Unification Church.  While Abe and the LDP take support from Unification Church and other religious organizations over the years it is not clear why the suspect is singling Abe out for this. One theory is that some PNHK candidates have been criticizing Abe for being connected to the Unification Church (as well as Falun Gong) as proof that Abe and the LDP are anti-national and anti-Japanese given their Korean and PRC origins.

The police and mainstream media keep all this under wraps and just refer to "particular religious organization" mostly because if the full details come out, especially before an election, it might be open season on Unification Church, Sanctuary Church, PNHK, and Zainichi Koreans (since Unification Church came from ROK).

Speaking of Chinese language media on the ROC, pro-DPP media are heartbroken over Abe's assassination since they see Abe as their most relianet and powerful ally in Japanese politics.  I think out of anger and frustration they are floating theories that the CCP might be behind this.  Of course, they provide no evidence for their conjecture but the pro-DPP ecosystem right now is in a freakout and lashing out against the CCP for their loss.   They will get over it after a while.
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #421 on: July 09, 2022, 09:08:04 AM »

Other political implications.  The leader of the largest LDP faction is gone and it will be hard to fill Abe's shoes.  Given how much the intra-faction battles are over personality differences versus policy differences this could lead to another round of re-shuffling of the different LDP factional rivalries and alliances.  One possible winner would be Kono Taro.  It seems Abe is really out to get him and if Abe stayed around in LDP politics for another decade he could really retard Kono Taro's chances of being LDP leader.  Now that Abe is gone former PM and Aso faction leader Aso Taro will become the LDP party elder.  Kono Taro is in the Aso faction plus Kono Taro's father and former LDP Prez Kono Yohei being Aso's old benefactor all means the LDP hierarchy just got a lot friendlier to Kono.
whats the different between the factions also is true to say abe was japan reagan?
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jaichind
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« Reply #422 on: July 09, 2022, 09:22:19 AM »

My final projection

I also have the alternative winner for competitive and tossups seats

Much higher turnout (something like 58%-59%) with a LDP surge at the expense of everyone but especially JRP.  KP barely hangs on to win 7 seats with a higher turnout and marginal JCP voters come out as well which saves JCP from losing more ground. 

In 1- member districts the JRP vote shifts to LDP destroying the opposition while in multi-member districts the JRP is hurt by the JRP vote going to LDP with a result the JRP underperforms in multi-member districts.

                                               Prediction
北海道Hokkaido         3              LDP CDP LDP (compeititve) (CDP)
青森   Aomori             1             CDP (competitive) (LDP)                             
岩手   Iwate               1             LDP (tossup)  (CDP)
宮城   Miyagi              1             LDP     
秋田   Akita                1             LDP                                 
山形   Yamagata         1             DPP (tossup) (LDP)                     
福島   Fukushima       1              LDP                   
茨城   Ibaraki             2             LDP OPPN (competitive) (JRP)                         
栃木   Tochigi             1             LDP                           
群馬   Gunma            1              LDP                                 
埼玉   Saitama           4             LDP KP CDP OPPN (competitive) (JRP)                   
千葉   Chiba               3             LDP LDP CDP (competitive) (JRP)                   
神奈川Kanagawa        5              LDP JRP LDP KP JCP (tossup) (CDP)         
山梨   Yamanashi       1              LDP (comeptitive) (CDP)     
東京   Tokyo              6              LDP CDP LDP KP JCP RS (tossup) (JRP)   
新潟   Niigata             1             LDP (tossup) (CDP)           
富山   Toyama            1             LDP                                 
石川   Ishikawa           1             LDP                                 
福井   Fukui                1             LDP                                 
長野   Nagano             1             CDP (tossup) (LDP)                             
岐阜   Gifu                  1             LDP                                 
静岡   Shizuoka           2             LDP ex-DP likely pro-LDP                   
愛知   Aichi                 4             LDP KP CDP DPP (tossup) (JRP)               
三重   Mie                   1             LDP                             
滋賀   Shiga                1             LDP 
京都   Kyoto                2             LDP CDP (tossup) (JRP)   
大阪   Osaka               4             JRP LDP JRP KP           
兵庫   Hyōgo               3             JRP LDP KP
奈良   Nara                 1             LDP                                 
和歌山Wakayama        1              LDP                                 
鳥取 Tottori/               
島根   Shimane           1             LDP                               
岡山   Okayama          1             LDP       
広島   Hiroshima         2             LDP OPPN (competitive) (JRP)
山口   Yamaguchi        1             LDP                                 
徳島   Tokushima/ 
高知   Kōchi                1             LDP                                 
香川   Kagawa            1             LDP                                 
愛媛   Ehime              1             LDP                                 
福岡   Fukuoka           3             LDP KP CDP                     
佐賀   Saga                1             LDP                                 
長崎   Nagasaki           1             LDP                               
熊本   Kumamoto        1             LDP                               
大分   Ōita                  1            LDP (comptititve) (DPP)           
宮崎   Miyazaki           1             LDP                                 
鹿児島Kagoshima       1              LDP                               
沖縄   Okinawa           1             LDP (tossup) (OPPN) 
 
This along with PR section gives us

1 seat districts LDP-opposition 29-3
                                                           
                     PR              PR vote share          District              Total
LDP                21                    39.0%               46                     67
KP                   7                     12.5%                7                     14
PP                   1                       2.0%                0                       1
PNHK               0                      1.0%                 0                      0
JRP                  7                    14.0%                4                      11
DPP                  3                      5.5%                3                       6
CDP                 7                    13.5%                 9                     16
SDP                 0                       1.5%               0                       0
RS                   1                      3.5%                1                       2
JCP                  4                      7.5%                2                       6
Others                                     1.0%
OPPN                                                              3                        3
pro-LDP                                                          1                        1
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jaichind
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« Reply #423 on: July 09, 2022, 09:37:19 AM »

Other political implications.  The leader of the largest LDP faction is gone and it will be hard to fill Abe's shoes.  Given how much the intra-faction battles are over personality differences versus policy differences this could lead to another round of re-shuffling of the different LDP factional rivalries and alliances.  One possible winner would be Kono Taro.  It seems Abe is really out to get him and if Abe stayed around in LDP politics for another decade he could really retard Kono Taro's chances of being LDP leader.  Now that Abe is gone former PM and Aso faction leader Aso Taro will become the LDP party elder.  Kono Taro is in the Aso faction plus Kono Taro's father and former LDP Prez Kono Yohei being Aso's old benefactor all means the LDP hierarchy just got a lot friendlier to Kono.
whats the different between the factions also is true to say abe was japan reagan?

Writeup I had on LDP factions.
Foreign policy-wise I can see some similarities between Abe and Reagan where he put Japan back on the geopolitical map even while Japan's relative economic position continued to decline.  Domestic economically he was all talk about structural reforms and his monetary policy was for sure not Reagan-Volcker but more like Nixon/Carter-Burns with massive QE and monetary easing to keep all sorts of zombie Japanese companies alive.


LDP factions have their origins in the merger of the more Conservative and larger LP and the more Liberal and smaller DP in 1955.  LP and DP were rivals for the Center-Right vote and after the merger, their rivalry just continued as factions.

岸田(Kishida) faction - 45 MPs - Came from LP, the oldest of LDP factions and the faction of current PM

谷垣(Tanigaki) faction - 26 MPs - led by Prez of LDP in 2009-2012 and a splinter of 岸田(Kishida) faction

二階(Nikai) faction - 43 MPs - came from DP and was founded by the DP leader 鳩山(Hatoyama)- always considered non-mainstream given its DP background.  Historically known as the pro-PRC faction.  When LDP needs to do deals with the PRC they always send the 二階(Nikai) faction to work things out with the PRC.

森山(Moriyama) faction - 7 MPs - 二階(Nikai) faction splinter - used to be led by 石原伸晃(Ishihara Nobuteru) son of the famous governor of Tokyo

安倍(Abe) faction - 94 MPs - came from LP and is now the largest and most right-wing/conservative faction led by former PM Abe

茂木(Motegi) faction - 54 MPs - used to be led by 竹下亘(Takesh**ta Wataru) brother of LDP PM Takesh**ta if the early 1990s.  This is the old powerful Tanaka faction that has an LP background.  Used to dominate LDP in the 1970s to 1990s but Ozawa split the faction and led it outside of LDP.  You can argue that CDP/DPP is merely a Tanaka faction splinter.  Since the Ozawa split this faction has gone into decline and slowly became non-mainstream.  

麻生(Aso) faction - 49 MPs - led by former PM and DPM Aso.  Founded by 河野洋平(Kōno Yōhei) who had a 二階(Nikai) faction background before forming an LDP splinter NLC in 1976-1986.  When he rejoined LDP he formed his own faction.  His son 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) who is a member of this faction ran for leadership for LDP last year (as well as in 2009) with both ending in defeat.  This faction was not that powerful but once leadership moved to Aso it became much more powerful under Aso's leadership.

石破(Ishiba) - 10 MPs - a new faction led by 石破 茂(Ishiba Shigeru) mainly as a vehicle to take on Abe and his faction

菅(Suga) group - 25 MP - In theory this is not a faction but during former PM 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) long reign as PM Abe's Chief Cabinet Secretary he gathered a bunch of non-aligned LDP MP into a bloc that is loyal to Suga so this can be considered a faction.


All things equal the 安倍(Abe) faction, 麻生(Aso) faction, and 岸田(Kishida) faction is considered mainstream, and others non-mainstream.  二階(Nikai) faction is non-mainstream due to the DP background while 茂木(Motegi) faction is non-mainstream due to the stain of the Ozawa split/defection of 1993.  Also, 茂木(Motegi) faction and 安倍(Abe) faction were ancient rivals so with the 安倍(Abe) faction being mainstream by definition 茂木(Motegi) is considered non-mainstream.

二階(Nikai) faction has always had ambitions to break out of its non-mainstream status and become the largest faction ergo this faction had spent a lot of time trying to recruit non-LDP politicians to run as pro-LDP independents hoping if they win they will join 二階(Nikai) faction.  This makes the 二階(Nikai) faction extra unpopular since these 二階(Nikai) faction backed pro-LDP independents running sometimes will hurt the electoral prospects of the official LDP candidate from other factions.
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FredLindq
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« Reply #424 on: July 09, 2022, 10:01:01 AM »

PP stands for?!
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