Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10
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Author Topic: Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10  (Read 26245 times)
Lach
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« Reply #375 on: July 07, 2022, 10:08:25 PM »

Well, umm, this election just got turned completely on its head...
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Logical
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« Reply #376 on: July 07, 2022, 10:37:04 PM »

Just awful all around. Don't know what else to say.
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GP270watch
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« Reply #377 on: July 07, 2022, 11:15:21 PM »

The world's going mad.
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Reconstructivist
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« Reply #378 on: July 07, 2022, 11:23:56 PM »

Wakie wakie jaichiii-San, desu no kawaii
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #379 on: July 07, 2022, 11:29:40 PM »

Shot twice in the back with a shotgun and rushed to the hospital in cardiac arrest. Feels like it’d take a miracle for him to survive this.
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Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #380 on: July 08, 2022, 12:57:03 AM »

I didn't believe this at first, when told first time around. Thought I was being pranked.
Whelp, it's real. I'm speechless.
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jaichind
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« Reply #381 on: July 08, 2022, 01:25:11 AM »

The suspect was a member of the Maritime SDF for three years through about 2005, NHK is reporting.
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jaichind
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« Reply #382 on: July 08, 2022, 01:27:57 AM »

Kishida refrains from commenting on how this might impact this weekend’s scheduled election -- and doesn’t touch on whether it could be postponed or canceled.
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jaichind
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« Reply #383 on: July 08, 2022, 01:30:06 AM »

Local broadcaster NHK is citing unidentified sources as saying the gun appears to be “hand-made”. NHK played a close-up of the gun on the ground, and it does look like something taped together.
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Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #384 on: July 08, 2022, 01:50:04 AM »

Ok, so I checked. If he indeed dies, this is the first time a Japanese PM or ex-Japanese PM had died from assassination since Saito Makoto and Takahashi Korekiyo died in February 26 Incident.
Truly unprecedented in recent Japanese political history.
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jaichind
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« Reply #385 on: July 08, 2022, 02:05:28 AM »

Kyodo is citing Nara police as saying the suspect didn’t attack Abe because of his political beliefs.

If so it is likely the suspect is a disgruntled his lack of economic progress and shot Abe blaming him for poor state of economy. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #386 on: July 08, 2022, 02:08:11 AM »

In all of Japan in 2021, there were 10 gun-related incidents, according to the National Police Agency. One person died and four were injured. Eight of the 10 incidents involved organized crime.
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jaichind
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« Reply #387 on: July 08, 2022, 02:12:22 AM »

While rare, there are occasions of violence against politicians in modern Japan. In 2007, the mayor of Nagasaki, Iccho Itoh, was shot and killed in front of his campaign headquarters, and in 2002, Koki Ishii, a DPJ MP, was stabbed and killed in front of his home in Tokyo. There were three more incidents in the ‘90s -- all involving right-wing organizations.
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Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #388 on: July 08, 2022, 02:17:14 AM »

In all of Japan in 2021, there were 10 gun-related incidents, according to the National Police Agency. One person died and four were injured. Eight of the 10 incidents involved organized crime.
That's a shockingly low death tally.
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jaichind
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« Reply #389 on: July 08, 2022, 02:17:48 AM »

LDP instructs candidates to cease all campaign activities for the time being. I am sure other parties will follow. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #390 on: July 08, 2022, 02:57:42 AM »

The suspect told investigators he “had a gripe” with Abe so he thought to kill him, but that it was not politically motivated, NHK reports, citing the police.

Another source claims that the suspect told the police he had planned to shot "someone from a certain organization" (KP?)  But his target did not show up but Abe did so he shot Abe instead.  The police does not believe this story as per this source. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #391 on: July 08, 2022, 03:23:31 AM »

Wow.  Nikkie has 宮城(Miyagi) 福島(Fukushima) and 奈良(Nara) (for JRP) as lean opposition all due to the JRP surge.  奈良(Nara) is out of nowhere.  On the flip side, they have 岩手(Iwate) as lean LDP when everyone else has lean CDP.


It seems it was the Nikkei's projection that 奈良(Nara) might go JRP that led Abe to go campaign there leading to the attack that most likely ended his life.
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jaichind
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« Reply #392 on: July 08, 2022, 03:41:54 AM »

Since there are already early voting votes cast already I find it hard to believe they can delay this election.
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Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #393 on: July 08, 2022, 03:53:47 AM »

NHK world reporting that LDP official has said Abe has died.
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jaichind
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« Reply #394 on: July 08, 2022, 04:13:12 AM »

Various LDP bigwigs saying the election will go on.

It will be a LDP landslide.  I now have them at 66 seats with 20 PR seats and sweeping all 1- member districts except for 3 (青森(Aomori), 山形(Yamagata), and 長野(Nagano) as the JRP vote will now swing to LDP in those seats.  Depending on how the next couple of days go I might flip 山形(Yamagata) to LDP.  SDP PNHK will most likely fall below the threshold given the clear higher turnout that will take place.  PP most likely holds on.  Of the bigger parties, JRP will get hit the most in multi-member districts as their votes shift to LDP.


 
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Logical
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« Reply #395 on: July 08, 2022, 04:43:11 AM »

The opposition parties have confirmed that they will go back to campaigning tomorrow. Like jaichind, I believe a majority for LDP alone is now very likely. LDP-KP 2/3rds majority also possible. Despite that constitutional revision remains quite unlikely. The main concern for the Japanese electorate in the coming months is still going to be inflation.
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jaichind
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« Reply #396 on: July 08, 2022, 04:54:18 AM »

Possible explosives have been found at the alleged suspect’s home, NHK reports.
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Mike88
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« Reply #397 on: July 08, 2022, 05:07:45 AM »

Oh my God!! This is just awful. RIP Abe Cry

I read that the suspect is unemployed and was a former navy officer.
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jaichind
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« Reply #398 on: July 08, 2022, 05:11:00 AM »

Other political implications.  The leader of the largest LDP faction is gone and it will be hard to fill Abe's shoes.  Given how much the intra-faction battles are over personality differences versus policy differences this could lead to another round of re-shuffling of the different LDP factional rivalries and alliances.  One possible winner would be Kono Taro.  It seems Abe is really out to get him and if Abe stayed around in LDP politics for another decade he could really retard Kono Taro's chances of being LDP leader.  Now that Abe is gone former PM and Aso faction leader Aso Taro will become the LDP party elder.  Kono Taro is in the Aso faction plus Kono Taro's father and former LDP Prez Kono Yohei being Aso's old benefactor all means the LDP hierarchy just got a lot friendlier to Kono.
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Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #399 on: July 08, 2022, 05:24:01 AM »

Other political implications.  The leader of the largest LDP faction is gone and it will be hard to fill Abe's shoes.  Given how much the intra-faction battles are over personality differences versus policy differences this could lead to another round of re-shuffling of the different LDP factional rivalries and alliances.  One possible winner would be Kono Taro.  It seems Abe is really out to get him and if Abe stayed around in LDP politics for another decade he could really retard Kono Taro's chances of being LDP leader.  Now that Abe is gone former PM and Aso faction leader Aso Taro will become the LDP party elder.  Kono Taro is in the Aso faction plus Kono Taro's father and former LDP Prez Kono Yohei being Aso's old benefactor all means the LDP hierarchy just got a lot friendlier to Kono.
What about Shigeru Ishiba?
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