Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10
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jaichind
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« Reply #250 on: June 25, 2022, 07:23:39 AM »

After many name changes PNHK this time around wants to be called NHK党 or NHK party.   They ask voters to write "NHK党" on the PR ballot.

Of course, the party is the opposite of what it seems to imply as it is really the anti-PHK party.  But I guess they figured they are well known enough that everyone knows that.  In fact, that bodes well for them in the PR section since this shows confidence in their name recognition.
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« Reply #251 on: June 25, 2022, 07:29:34 AM »

The size of the Japanese electorate continues to decline after peaking at 2016 as Japan's population shrinks.

2010: 104,029,135   
2012: 103,959,866
2013: 104,152,590
2014: 104,067,104
2015: Minimum voting age is lowered from 20 to 18
2016: 106,202,873
2017: 106,091,229
2019: 105,886,064
2021: 105,622,758
2022: 105,438,138

The voting power disparity in three prefectures is above the 3 times limit the Supreme Court of Japan prescribed in previous rulings. The value of a vote in Fukui is now worth more than 3x a vote from Kanagawa (3.032), Miyagi (3.025), and Tokyo (3.014). This has to be corrected by the next cycle in 2025. There are a few ways to address this, the simplest is by giving Kanagawa, Miyagi and Tokyo another pair of seats. Another solution would be merging Fukui's constituency with a neighboring prefecture's (most likely Ishikawa), but this will be very unpopular among voters and LDP bosses in both prefectures. The most radical solution would be reforming the whole upper house electoral system but it's unlikely that Kishida has the political capital to enact a large reform such as this.
Who benefits if one additional seat is added to Miyagi, Tokyo, and Kanagawa?
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jaichind
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« Reply #252 on: June 25, 2022, 07:32:34 AM »

The size of the Japanese electorate continues to decline after peaking at 2016 as Japan's population shrinks.

2010: 104,029,135   
2012: 103,959,866
2013: 104,152,590
2014: 104,067,104
2015: Minimum voting age is lowered from 20 to 18
2016: 106,202,873
2017: 106,091,229
2019: 105,886,064
2021: 105,622,758
2022: 105,438,138

The voting power disparity in three prefectures is above the 3 times limit the Supreme Court of Japan prescribed in previous rulings. The value of a vote in Fukui is now worth more than 3x a vote from Kanagawa (3.032), Miyagi (3.025), and Tokyo (3.014). This has to be corrected by the next cycle in 2025. There are a few ways to address this, the simplest is by giving Kanagawa, Miyagi and Tokyo another pair of seats. Another solution would be merging Fukui's constituency with a neighboring prefecture's (most likely Ishikawa), but this will be very unpopular among voters and LDP bosses in both prefectures. The most radical solution would be reforming the whole upper house electoral system but it's unlikely that Kishida has the political capital to enact a large reform such as this.
Who benefits if one additional seat is added to Miyagi, Tokyo, and Kanagawa?

Miyagi it will be CDP.  In Tokyo and Kanagawa, it will be both CDP and JRP.  This is one of many reasons LDP prefers to not fix the problem by increasing the number of seats.  Another reason would be the accusation that they are just increasing the number of politicians that draw salaries off the backs of the voters.
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jaichind
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« Reply #253 on: June 25, 2022, 07:36:35 AM »

The size of the Japanese electorate continues to decline after peaking at 2016 as Japan's population shrinks.

2010: 104,029,135   
2012: 103,959,866
2013: 104,152,590
2014: 104,067,104
2015: Minimum voting age is lowered from 20 to 18
2016: 106,202,873
2017: 106,091,229
2019: 105,886,064
2021: 105,622,758
2022: 105,438,138

The voting power disparity in three prefectures is above the 3 times limit the Supreme Court of Japan prescribed in previous rulings. The value of a vote in Fukui is now worth more than 3x a vote from Kanagawa (3.032), Miyagi (3.025), and Tokyo (3.014). This has to be corrected by the next cycle in 2025. There are a few ways to address this, the simplest is by giving Kanagawa, Miyagi and Tokyo another pair of seats. Another solution would be merging Fukui's constituency with a neighboring prefecture's (most likely Ishikawa), but this will be very unpopular among voters and LDP bosses in both prefectures. The most radical solution would be reforming the whole upper house electoral system but it's unlikely that Kishida has the political capital to enact a large reform such as this.

They already had to do this for 鳥取(Tottori)/島根(Shimane) and 徳島(Tokushima) and 高知(Kōchi).  After many complaints, the LDP had to change election law to allow a party to have a PR winner that is at the top of the list regardless of where he/she is in the personal vote.  This allowed the LDP to put 2 candidates from these two areas at the top of their PR list to ensure that every prefecture is represented in the Upper House.  If they have to do this they will have to do the same.  Of course, that will create complaints from the various LDP professional support groups that run candidates on the PR section that their slots are being eaten up by these rural prefecture quotas.


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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #254 on: June 25, 2022, 07:39:16 AM »

The size of the Japanese electorate continues to decline after peaking at 2016 as Japan's population shrinks.

2010: 104,029,135   
2012: 103,959,866
2013: 104,152,590
2014: 104,067,104
2015: Minimum voting age is lowered from 20 to 18
2016: 106,202,873
2017: 106,091,229
2019: 105,886,064
2021: 105,622,758
2022: 105,438,138

The voting power disparity in three prefectures is above the 3 times limit the Supreme Court of Japan prescribed in previous rulings. The value of a vote in Fukui is now worth more than 3x a vote from Kanagawa (3.032), Miyagi (3.025), and Tokyo (3.014). This has to be corrected by the next cycle in 2025. There are a few ways to address this, the simplest is by giving Kanagawa, Miyagi and Tokyo another pair of seats. Another solution would be merging Fukui's constituency with a neighboring prefecture's (most likely Ishikawa), but this will be very unpopular among voters and LDP bosses in both prefectures. The most radical solution would be reforming the whole upper house electoral system but it's unlikely that Kishida has the political capital to enact a large reform such as this.
Who benefits if one additional seat is added to Miyagi, Tokyo, and Kanagawa?

Miyagi it will be CDP.  In Tokyo and Kanagawa, it will be both CDP and JRP.  This is one of many reasons LDP prefers to not fix the problem by increasing the number of seats.  Another reason would be the accusation that they are just increasing the number of politicians that draw salaries off the backs of the voters.
With Miyagi it's something of a wash, no? Because Miyagi itself is quite marginal, it basically locks in 1 LDP 1 CDP. Of course, Tokyo and Kanagawa it is indeed likely to be CDP and JRP.
Ultimately, a merger of Fukui and Ishikawa sounds at least as bad for a LDP as adding more seats, even leaving aside the fact it would be very unpopular with voters in that prefecture. Merging the two is a guaranteed loss of an LDP seat, while the LDP can possibly win 3/7 in Tokyo in a good year. Plus it's good for Komeito, which is their partner. Kanagawa doesn't seem too different.
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jaichind
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« Reply #255 on: June 25, 2022, 08:16:32 AM »


With Miyagi it's something of a wash, no? Because Miyagi itself is quite marginal, it basically locks in 1 LDP 1 CDP. Of course, Tokyo and Kanagawa it is indeed likely to be CDP and JRP.
Ultimately, a merger of Fukui and Ishikawa sounds at least as bad for a LDP as adding more seats, even leaving aside the fact it would be very unpopular with voters in that prefecture. Merging the two is a guaranteed loss of an LDP seat, while the LDP can possibly win 3/7 in Tokyo in a good year. Plus it's good for Komeito, which is their partner. Kanagawa doesn't seem too different.

Miyagi has a neutral national lean between LDP-KP vs Center-Left with a relatively weak JRP.  But the JRP vote might trend toward LDP-KP in a 1-on-1 race.  Given that if I were CDP I rather go for a 1-1 split with LDP than try to pull off narrow wins from LDP every time.  The core issue is CDP is not in a position to deprive the LDP-KP of a majority.  Their goal is to prevent a massive LDP-KP majority.  So anything that splits it 1-1 they should take.  As for Tokyo, I doubt LDP will take the risk of having 3 candidates in a 7- member district when Tokyo is trending JRP.  Having 7 gives CDP the space to win a second seat and assures a JRP seat as well.  In that sense CDP and JRP are more  better off that LDP to have a 7th seat in Tokyo.
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jaichind
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« Reply #256 on: June 25, 2022, 10:59:08 AM »

One of the PNHK PR candidates is 山本太郎(Tarō Yamamoto) who has the exact name as the leader of RS and is running for his old seat back in the Tokyo district area.

The PNHK  山本太郎(Tarō Yamamoto) seems to be a grocery store owner
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Logical
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« Reply #257 on: June 25, 2022, 11:30:59 AM »

The size of the Japanese electorate continues to decline after peaking at 2016 as Japan's population shrinks.

2010: 104,029,135   
2012: 103,959,866
2013: 104,152,590
2014: 104,067,104
2015: Minimum voting age is lowered from 20 to 18
2016: 106,202,873
2017: 106,091,229
2019: 105,886,064
2021: 105,622,758
2022: 105,438,138

The voting power disparity in three prefectures is above the 3 times limit the Supreme Court of Japan prescribed in previous rulings. The value of a vote in Fukui is now worth more than 3x a vote from Kanagawa (3.032), Miyagi (3.025), and Tokyo (3.014). This has to be corrected by the next cycle in 2025. There are a few ways to address this, the simplest is by giving Kanagawa, Miyagi and Tokyo another pair of seats. Another solution would be merging Fukui's constituency with a neighboring prefecture's (most likely Ishikawa), but this will be very unpopular among voters and LDP bosses in both prefectures. The most radical solution would be reforming the whole upper house electoral system but it's unlikely that Kishida has the political capital to enact a large reform such as this.

They already had to do this for 鳥取(Tottori)/島根(Shimane) and 徳島(Tokushima) and 高知(Kōchi).  After many complaints, the LDP had to change election law to allow a party to have a PR winner that is at the top of the list regardless of where he/she is in the personal vote.  This allowed the LDP to put 2 candidates from these two areas at the top of their PR list to ensure that every prefecture is represented in the Upper House.  If they have to do this they will have to do the same.  Of course, that will create complaints from the various LDP professional support groups that run candidates on the PR section that their slots are being eaten up by these rural prefecture quotas.




Agreed. Every solution isn't ideal from the LDP perspective but I think they will choose to increase the number of seats in the end since it will piss off fewer people.
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Logical
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« Reply #258 on: June 25, 2022, 12:28:05 PM »

Kyodo news PR poll

LDP 16-23
KP 6-8
CDP 6-9
JCP 3-5
RS 1-3
SDP 0-1
JRP 6-9
DPP 1-3
NHK 0-1
PP 0-1

CDP & JRP neck and neck. Everyone else is at their expected level of support.
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jaichind
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« Reply #259 on: June 25, 2022, 12:54:36 PM »

Kyodo news PR poll

LDP 16-23
KP 6-8
CDP 6-9
JCP 3-5
RS 1-3
SDP 0-1
JRP 6-9
DPP 1-3
NHK 0-1
PP 0-1

CDP & JRP neck and neck. Everyone else is at their expected level of support.

Remember, this projection is based on these same mega-poll raw data that all the media outfits jointly paid for and jointly shared.  Then each media house uses its own adjustments on the raw data to come up with their projections including local stringers in various prefectures.
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jaichind
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« Reply #260 on: June 25, 2022, 12:58:57 PM »



Agreed. Every solution isn't ideal from the LDP perspective but I think they will choose to increase the number of seats in the end since it will piss off fewer people.

On thought experiment would be, how would CDP design seats be the most optimal for itself relative to LDP.  The design is obvious, let all of Japan be arranged into a large number of 2- member districts.  You figure for 15% of them, the LDP can win 2 out of 2 and for another 10% of them JRP would win the second seat and for around 5% of them, JCP would win the second seat.  But that would give CDP (perhaps allied with DPP) a solid 35% of the district seats.  So if there is any chance to have more 2- member seat the CDP should jump at it.
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jaichind
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« Reply #261 on: June 25, 2022, 01:42:07 PM »

Party revenue with some info on the source.  LDP, JRP, and CDP mostly get funded by government funding of political parties based on the number of MPs and vote share. JCP's funding is massive and almost as large as LDP but most of it comes from the selling of its weekly magazine which all JCP supporters buy and is really a de facto party fee.   KP also makes a bunch of money from the KP newspaper which its supporters buy.  The size of the JCP revenue from its magazine is the secret of how JCP can run so many candidates and lose but have the funds to keep on coming back with more candidates that lose.
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #262 on: June 25, 2022, 04:57:14 PM »

Party revenue with some info on the source.  LDP, JRP, and CDP mostly get funded by government funding of political parties based on the number of MPs and vote share. JCP's funding is massive and almost as large as LDP but most of it comes from the selling of its weekly magazine which all JCP supporters buy and is really a de facto party fee.   KP also makes a bunch of money from the KP newspaper which its supporters buy.  The size of the JCP revenue from its magazine is the secret of how JCP can run so many candidates and lose but have the funds to keep on coming back with more candidates that lose.

Komeito and the JCP are similar in many little ways. This is one of them.
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jaichind
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« Reply #263 on: June 26, 2022, 06:57:33 AM »

Mainichi poll has Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval at 41/34.  A very large number of neutrals, with a lot of them being women.

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jaichind
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« Reply #264 on: June 26, 2022, 07:16:22 AM »

埼玉(Saitama) campaign posters

LDP CDP KP should win 3 out of 4 seats.  The last seat is a battle between the pro-DPP independent incumbent, JRP and JCP.  The pro-DPP independent who also indicates on his posters that he is backed by DPP is also an ex-governor of the prefecture which should give him the edge over JRP and JCP.  What is not clear is which of JRP or JCP is a greater threat to the pro-DPP independent.  Historically JCP has been strong here but JRP has been rising last few years in this urbanized prefecture.

The Japanese Marijuana Party is also running here with a platform for marijuana legalization (it has a picture of weed on its poster).
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jaichind
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« Reply #265 on: June 26, 2022, 08:57:35 AM »

Campaign posters for 神奈川(Kanagawa)

This is a 4-seat district but will election 5 this time since it will double as a by-election with the 5th place winner serving out the 2019-2026 seat and will be up for re-election.

The LDP and KP incumbents are certain to win.  The LDP incumbent is a political superstar and ex-actress and her sign shows LDP less promintely since she is likely to pull in non-LDP votes.  The other LDP candidate has an opposition background (DPJ and then YP) and shows the LDP party symbol more prominently since he will need LDP votes to win.   The JRP candidate is an ex-governor and running to get back his seat in the Upper House and also highlights the fact that he was governor of the prefecture.  The 2 CDP and JCP candidates are fighting for the 5th and last spot.  With 3 center-left candidates plus DPP and SDP candidates in the mix, there is very little chance of any of them making it into the top 4. 

The SDP candidate's poster which pushes the SDP PR slate makes it clear he is running to push up the SDP PR vote.   The same is clearly true for PNHK as well.   Being that there are 5 seats up for grabs there is the standard assortment of frivolous candidates as well.
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Logical
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« Reply #266 on: June 26, 2022, 10:10:25 AM »

CDP and DPP are still using the same 民主党 abbreviation on official bulletins just as 2021. If a voter writes 民主党 on their ballot paper their vote will be divided proportionally according to how many regular vote there were in each ballot box. I believe that DPP overperformed slightly in 2021 because of this rule.
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jaichind
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« Reply #267 on: June 26, 2022, 11:05:32 AM »

CDP and DPP are still using the same 民主党 abbreviation on official bulletins just as 2021. If a voter writes 民主党 on their ballot paper their vote will be divided proportionally according to how many regular vote there were in each ballot box. I believe that DPP overperformed slightly in 2021 because of this rule

Good point.  I know CDP was and still is pretty upset about how DPP "stole" votes that were meant for them.   I guess the good news for CDP is that with both CDP and DPP having been around for at least 4 years now the chances of a vote for 民主党 or 民主 is lower.  Back in the 2019 election, Abe kept on referring to CDP as DPJ (民主党) exactly for the reason of trying to cut down the CDP PR vote through technicalities.
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jaichind
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« Reply #268 on: June 26, 2022, 11:15:40 AM »

If PNHK does win a PR seat then it is for sure going to be youtuber 東谷義和(Higashiya Yoshikazu).  He used to run a retailer and then had to resign due to some scandal I do not quite understand.  But due to his name recognition, he switched to being a youtuber that just has all sorts of commentary.

His youtube channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC1vYgHei6CvL1IzRyuOZ_-w has 384K subscribers.
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Logical
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« Reply #269 on: June 26, 2022, 11:36:39 AM »
« Edited: June 26, 2022, 11:42:23 AM by Logical »

CDP and DPP are still using the same 民主党 abbreviation on official bulletins just as 2021. If a voter writes 民主党 on their ballot paper their vote will be divided proportionally according to how many regular vote there were in each ballot box. I believe that DPP overperformed slightly in 2021 because of this rule

Good point.  I know CDP was and still is pretty upset about how DPP "stole" votes that were meant for them.   I guess the good news for CDP is that with both CDP and DPP having been around for at least 4 years now the chances of a vote for 民主党 or 民主 is lower.  Back in the 2019 election, Abe kept on referring to CDP as DPJ (民主党) exactly for the reason of trying to cut down the CDP PR vote through technicalities.
I looked it up and the number of voters that wrote 民主党 on their PR ballots is actually quite substantial. Of the 3.62 million ballots that were marked 民主党 in 2021 CDP was given 2.95m (81%) and DP 660k (19%). This is more than a quarter of the total vote each party gets. No wonder neither are willing to give up the rights to the 民主党 abbreviation.
https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA192VO0Z10C22A4000000/
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jaichind
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« Reply #270 on: June 26, 2022, 04:41:10 PM »

2021 LDP Prez candidate and still possible future LDP leader/Japanese PM Kono campaigning in 神奈川(Kanagawa) for his old rival 浅尾 慶一郎(Asao Keiichirō) who spent his career in opposition circles (in the DPJ and then as leader of YP) but now have joined LDP.  Going by the sign on the bus it seems former PM and leader of the Aso faction 麻生 太郎(Asō Tarō) is also part of the stump speech lineup.
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jaichind
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« Reply #271 on: June 27, 2022, 03:54:08 AM »

KP newspaper is up to its old tricks again.  Their assessments of 5 of the multi-member districts that KP is running are

兵庫(Hyōgo) JRP LDP CDP/KP
神奈川(Kanagawa) LDP LDP JRP CDP/KP
埼玉(Saitama) LDP CDP pro-DPP JRP/KP
福岡(Fukuoka) LDP CDP JRP/KP
愛知(Aichi) LDP CDP JRP DPP/KP

In other words, KP is at risk of losing in all 5 districts.  The message is for all KP supporters to get out to vote on election day to save KP from doom and for all LDP JRP DPP and even in some cases CDP voters to tactically vote for KP to prevent their rivals from winning an unexpected seat.

At least they are smart enough not to include 東京(Tokyo) and 大阪(Osaka) in this sham survey since everyone knows they are a lock on winning a seat in those two prefectures.
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jaichind
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« Reply #272 on: June 27, 2022, 04:10:41 AM »

https://www.komei.or.jp/komeinews/p246266/

KP analysis for PR has

LDP 18
KP    6
PP    1
JRP   8
DPP  3
CDP  8
RS    1
SDP  1
JCP   4

With JRP and RS potentially getting one more each without specifying against whom they will gain.  The net message is still the same "KP is at risk of not meeting its 7-seat PR target !!!" "Every KP voter MUST get out to vote and get all their friends and family to get out to vote for KP PR on election day !!!"
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jaichind
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« Reply #273 on: June 27, 2022, 04:50:52 AM »

Rengo mostly endorses DPP and pro-DPP independents across the board plus some pro-Rengo CDP candidates.  It seems between what they believe are pro-JCP CDP candidates and LDP they are taking a neutral position.
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« Reply #274 on: June 27, 2022, 05:45:35 AM »
« Edited: June 27, 2022, 05:51:27 AM by Logical »

New NHK poll. Kishida government approval continues to decline as inflation starts to bite. Economic issues, not constitutional change, is the first thing on voter's mind for this election. Only 5% of voters have constitutional issues as their priority, compared to 43% on the economy and 16% on social security.

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