Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 19, 2022, 03:21:04 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 5 6 7 8 9 [10] 11 12 13 14 15 ... 27
Author Topic: Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10  (Read 15578 times)
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,634
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #225 on: June 23, 2022, 08:54:17 AM »

Unlike 2016 and 2019 JCP will run in a bunch of 1- member districts.  But it turns out they are running mostly in places where it did not matter anyway. Places, where JCP is running that, could matter but in most cases actually do not matter are

1) 秋田(Akita) - In theory, this seat could be competitive.  But in reality, both CDP and DPP are backing separate independents so even if JCP did not run the LDP incumbent will win anyway.

2) 山形(Yamagata) - The DPP incumbent is very strong here and she is expected to win with or without JCP being in the mix.

3) 福井(Fukui) - The pro-CDP independent has a chance at an upset against the LDP incumbent because of a JRP-backed LDP rebel being in the mix.  The pro-CDP independent chances are weakened by JCP also running but if JCP were not to run the threat of the pro-CDP independent winning might have dissuaded the LDP rebel from running.  So either way, the LDP is likely to win.

4) 滋賀(Shiga) - The CDP-DPP joint independent candidate seems to have a chance at pulling off an upset against the LDP incumbent.   Here JCP running does seem to have an impact and most likely will ensure that the  CDP-DPP joint independent candidate will fall short.  There is a counter-argument is that the CDP-DPP joint independent candidate is doing well because JCP is in the mix allowing them to pick up JRP voters.

5) 岡山(Okayama) - Just like 滋賀(Shiga) The CDP-DPP joint independent candidate seems to have a chance at pulling off an upset against the LDP incumbent in this even longer shot prefecture for the opposition.   Again, here the JCP running most likely will ensure that he will fall short.  Just like in 滋賀(Shiga) there is a counter-argument is that the CDP-DPP joint independent candidate is doing well because JCP is in the mix allowing them to pick up JRP voters.

6) 長崎(Nagasaki) - There is some talk that CDP might pull off an upset against the LDP incumbent due to JRP running here and pulling in some LDP voters.  JCP running here does spoil that but it was always going to be a long shot.

7) 大分(Ōita) - The DPP incumbent is in a tough re-election fight. The JCP running here does not help but I think he is hurt more by a center-left independent than by JCP.  To some extent JCP running here allows the DPP incumbent to go after the JRP and even KP vote.  In the end, the DPP incumbent is at great risk of losing but it is more likely due to the center-left independent than the JCP candidate.

All in all, JCP running in a bunch 1-member districts is not decisive and most likely hurt the center-left opposition in pulling off some long-shot upsets which were never that likely in the first place.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,634
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #226 on: June 23, 2022, 10:12:22 AM »
« Edited: June 23, 2022, 02:12:09 PM by jaichind »

The mega poll-driven media projections are slowly coming out

Asahi

LDP         60
KP           14
PP             1
PNHK       1
JRP         12
DPP          4
CDP        18
RS           3
SDP         1
JCP          6
Ind.         5 (4 anti-LDP, 1 pro-LDP)

CDP DPP is lower than what I would expect with JCP SDP and PP are higher than what I would expect.  LDP is a bit higher but still within a reasonable range.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,634
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #227 on: June 23, 2022, 10:17:15 AM »

Survey of candidates by the party on the issue of defense.  LDP KP DPP and JRP are for expanding defensive abilities.   31% of CDP candidates support such a position while RS SDP and JCP none do.  But as far as expanding offensive abilities a solid majority of LDP and JRP is for while support falls to 45% of DPP candidates.  Near zero KP candidates are for expanding offensive military abilities which is the same for CDP candidates.


Constitutuinal change.  LDP JRP and DPP for.  CDP JCP RS SDP is against it.  KP is trying to be in the middle.  PNHK mostly for.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,634
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #228 on: June 23, 2022, 10:21:25 AM »

Yomiuri PR poll.  LDP falls a lot although part of it is KP's hidden PR voters that hide out in LDP going back to KP.  CDP and JRP make slight gains.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,634
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #229 on: June 23, 2022, 10:39:49 AM »

Out of the 32 1- member seats Asahi has opposition ahead in only 1 with 6 more as neck-to-neck.

Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,634
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #230 on: June 23, 2022, 11:27:44 AM »
« Edited: June 23, 2022, 02:12:39 PM by jaichind »

More detailed Asahi projection.  Note that as the most Left-wing media outfit,  Asahi usually has the most pro-LDP projection while the right-wing media companies tend to have more anti-LDP projections.  It is the anti-house effect.  

They have JCP at 1-3 district seats which is a fairly positive result for them.   PP PNHK and SDP getting a PR seat each are big and something I have to take into account.  JRP and CDP PR numbers do not look that hot for them while RS PR numbers look pretty good.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,634
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #231 on: June 23, 2022, 04:18:32 PM »

https://vote.mainichi.jp/26san/

Is a survey that computes which party aligns best with you

I get

LDP        18
CDP        32
KP          11
JRP         36
JCP         30
DPP        25
RS          34
SDP        34
PNHK      39
HRP        68
PP          57
JFP         36
NPC        43
IPS         39

Among the major parties, I align the most with JRP but not that strongly and only slightly ahead of SDP and RS.   I align the most with the far-right parties like HRP and PP.

I think my higher score with JCP SDP and RS stems from my negative response to Abeconomics of LDP but the survey does not really get into why and assumes my opposition is aligned with Left parties when my position is more than Abeconomics is heterodox and that I am for going to a Thatcherite orthodox economic policy mix.  My low score for LDP clearly reflects my rejection of LDP economic policies as too heterodox and my libertarian positions on social issues which conflicts with LDP and KP positions.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,634
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #232 on: June 23, 2022, 05:20:21 PM »

Kyodo projections which are based on the same raw super-poll data that Asahi used.

Using eyeball-guessing I guess it is

LDP   ~61
KP     ~12 (I call BS, KP will get 14 and everyone knows that)
PP       ~1
PNHK  ~1
JRP    ~13
DPP     ~3
CDP   ~17
RS       ~3
SDP     ~0
JCP      ~5
Ind      ~4

This seems similar to the Asahi projections,  Kyodo is also center-left which should mean that their projection is going to be the most pro-LDP



They also have a chart on how independents plan to vote on the PR slate which looks like a disaster for CDP.  CDP should be dominating this section of the vote base. LDP-KP levels of support here are about right but this vote is being scattered to JRP DPP RS PNHK and most likely PP.

LDP       10.9
KP          1.6
PNHK      1.5
JRP         9.8
DPP        5.6
CDP       11.5
RS          4.7
SDP        1.4
JCP         5.8
Others    4.0 (I have to assume a good part of this is PP)

Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,634
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #233 on: June 23, 2022, 06:05:49 PM »

A chart that tries to codify Kyodo's and Asahi's descriptions of multi-member districts.

Prefecture            size               Kyodo                                        Asahi
北海道(Hokkaido)    3     LDP LDP CDP (CDP)                   LDP CDP CDP (LDP)
茨城(Ibaraki)          2     LDP OPPN (JCP) (JRP)                         none
埼玉(Saitama)        4     LDP CDP OPPN KP (JRP) (JCP)     LDP CDP OPPN KP (JCP) (tossup)
神奈川(Kanagawa)   5     LDP JRP LDP KP CDP (JCP)         LDP LDP JRP KP JCP (CDP) (CDP)
東京(Tokyo)            6     LDP CDP KP LDP JCP RS (JRP)    LDP LDP CDP RS KP JCP
京都(Kyoto)            2     LDP CDP (JRP)                           LDP CDP (JRP) (not close)
大阪(Osaka)           4      JRP LDP KP JRP (JCP)                 JRP LDP KP JRP (JCP)
兵庫(Hyōgo)           3      LDP JRP KP (CDP) (tossup)         JRP LDP KP (CDP) (JCP)
広島(Hiroshima)      2             none                                 LDP OPPN (JRP) (JCP)
福岡(Fukuoka)        3      LDP CDP KP (JRP) (JCP)             LDP CDP KP (JRP)

These writeups underestimate KP across the board.  It makes it look like KP is at risk of losing in some of these prefectures when in reality they are quite safe and will easily win 7 district seats it is running in.

Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,634
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #234 on: June 24, 2022, 03:51:35 AM »

PR poll for LDP strongholds of 鳥取(Tottori) and 島根(Shimane) vs 2021 PR results


鳥取(Tottori)         poll          2021
LDP                     34.3         36.5
KP                        8.3          16.5
PNHK                    0.4           1.1
JRP                     10.3           7.9
DPP                      3.2           2.4
CDP                    16.4         23.7
RS                        2.4           3.5
SDP                      2.4           1.6
JCP                       7.5           7.9
Others                  2.8                      (a good part must be PP)


島根(Shimane)      poll           2021
LDP                     34.6          42.5
KP                        9.3           12.7
PNHK                    1.4            1.2
JRP                       7.9            7.4
DPP                      2.8             3.5
CDP                    13.3           22.0
RS                       1.8             2.9
SDP                     2.6             2.1
JCP                      9.6             5.8
Others                 3.1                     (a good part must be PP)

LDP-KP is losing some ground but CDP for sure is losing ground since 2021.  JRP JCP and SDP gaining ground.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,634
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #235 on: June 24, 2022, 04:23:10 AM »

A chart on the list of candidates per prefecture.  As pointed out before PNHK and PP are running candidates in every prefecture in an all-out effort to push up their PR vote

Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,634
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #236 on: June 24, 2022, 04:33:01 AM »

Kyodo 茨城(Ibaraki) PR poll vs 2021 PR results

                           poll          2021
LDP                     33.5         38.1
KP                        7.2          14.1
PP                         2.1
PNHK                    2.1           1.3
JRP                       8.1           9.9
DPP                      4.3           5.9
CDP                    13.8         20.2
RS                        3.0           3.7
SDP                      1.0           1.3
JCP                       7.3           5.7
 
Not as good for JRP in terms of gains as in other prefectures and not as bad for CDP in terms of losses as in other prefectures.  JCP continues to outperform which I think is the shock of this cycle of polling.  Going by these trends I might have to accept that both PNHK and PP are likely to win a seat each although I think PP has a bigger chance than PNHK as the novel party always has the edge.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,634
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #237 on: June 24, 2022, 04:40:31 AM »

PR poll for lean opposition長野(Nagano) vs 2021

                           poll          2021
LDP                     30.9         35.0
KP                         5.9         10.3
PP                         1.9
PNHK                    1.1           1.2
JRP                       7.5           9.1
DPP                      1.9           3.9
CDP                    23.1         26.3
RS                        1.9           3.4
SDP                      Huh           1.3
JCP                     12.9           8.9

CDP really underperformed here in 2021 so while the comparison to 2021 does not look that bad for CDP in a broad perspective this poll is not good for CDP.  JCP once again doing very well in this cycle of polls.

I think in 2021 JCP really pushed the CDP-JCP alliance and as a result, a bunch of JCP PR votes went to CDP while anti-JCP CDP PR votes went to JRP and DPP.  This time around JCP is not pushing the CDP-JCP alliance and it seems that the JCP PR votes are coming back to JCP.  But it seems the CDP PR votes it lost in 2021 are not coming back and in fact, more have gone over to JRP.  JRP in the meantime is not gaining that much because it is losing some votes to the new far right parties like PP.
Logged
Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
Atlas Politician
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,842
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #238 on: June 24, 2022, 06:51:50 AM »

https://vote.mainichi.jp/26san/

Is a survey that computes which party aligns best with you

I get

LDP        18
CDP        32
KP          11
JRP         36
JCP         30
DPP        25
RS          34
SDP        34
PNHK      39
HRP        68
PP          57
JFP         36
NPC        43
IPS         39

Among the major parties, I align the most with JRP but not that strongly and only slightly ahead of SDP and RS.   I align the most with the far-right parties like HRP and PP.

I think my higher score with JCP SDP and RS stems from my negative response to Abeconomics of LDP but the survey does not really get into why and assumes my opposition is aligned with Left parties when my position is more than Abeconomics is heterodox and that I am for going to a Thatcherite orthodox economic policy mix.  My low score for LDP clearly reflects my rejection of LDP economic policies as too heterodox and my libertarian positions on social issues which conflicts with LDP and KP positions.
I got
LDP        39
CDP        29
KP          25
JRP         25
JCP         14
DPP        43
RS          21
SDP        21
PNHK      39
HRP        32
PP          46
JFP         36
NPC        39
IPS         32

Pro-clarifying the SDF in the constitution, pro-housewife benefit, and support of existing sanctions...
I am not sure why I got PNHK remaining so high.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,634
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #239 on: June 24, 2022, 08:39:42 AM »

栃木(Tochigi) PR vote poll vs 2021

                           poll          2021
LDP                     33.3         38.1
KP                         5.6          11.7
PP                         3.0
PNHK                    2.5           1.5
JRP                       9.5         10.3
DPP                      3.3           4.2
CDP                    16.0         24.4
RS                        5.5           3.6
SDP                      0.6           1.6
JCP                       5.5           4.5

Similar to PR polls in other prefectures.  PNHK PP polls very well here.  JCP and RS also outperforming.  CDP clearly the biggest loser relative to 2021.  LDP-KP and JRP vote mostly holding up but do not seem will be making many gains.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,634
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #240 on: June 24, 2022, 11:53:54 AM »

Going by some of the prefecture-based polling I think the PR section now looks more like

          Vote share      seats
LDP       33.5%          18
KP         13.0%            7
PP           2.0%            1
PNHK      2.0%            1
JRP       14.5%            7
DPP        5.0%            2
CDP      14.5%            7
RS          4.5%            2
SDP        2.0%            1
JCP         8.0%            4

With mainstream opposition parties underperforming (CDP DPP and even JRP) and non-mainstream opposition gaining ground (PP PNHK RS JCP)
Logged
kaoras
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 929
Chile


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #241 on: June 24, 2022, 12:13:41 PM »
« Edited: June 24, 2022, 12:21:39 PM by kaoras »

Given how badly CDP is polling, what would a CDP-doomsday scenario look like and what would happen to the party? (splits, fusions, name change?)
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,634
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #242 on: June 24, 2022, 04:02:32 PM »

Given how badly CDP is polling, what would a CDP-doomsday scenario look like and what would happen to the party? (splits, fusions, name change?)

It depends on how the other parties do.  I can see a CDP shift to the Right and merging with DPP to just reform DPJ again.  This means being supportive of some sort of Constitution revision so the Left faction of CDP will bolt and most likely become SDP II or something like that.  Another way is to be open to alliance with JRP in addition to JCP but JRP will demand that CDP be open to Constitutional reform. 

I guess one way or another CDP will have to get past the Consitiational reform issue.  Being against it in light of the growing power of the PRC and a more hostile Russia means that CDP will be viewed as anti-national by more and more Centrist voters and yield the nationalism card to LDP and JRP.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,634
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #243 on: June 24, 2022, 06:01:39 PM »

Interesting nuggets from the Asahi projections at the prefecture-level

In LDP stronghold 石川(Ishikawa) far-right IPS is ahead of JCP for third place



In LDP stronghold 富山(Toyama) JRP is ahead of CDP for second place.  This one is not a super surprise as at the prefecture-level JRP is already emerging as the main opposition to LDP-KP as opposed to CDP

Logged
Logical
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 675


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #244 on: June 25, 2022, 12:01:12 AM »

I think there is a good chance of Komeito going down to 6 PR seats. They almost missed out in 2019 when their 7th candidate was the 49th person elected, had the number of PR seats remained at 48, they would've lost. They also undeperformed expectations in the last 2 national elections. The party is slowly dying off and they can't really draw from the large pool of floating voters.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,634
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #245 on: June 25, 2022, 06:26:13 AM »
« Edited: June 25, 2022, 06:34:08 AM by jaichind »

Campaign signs for LDP stronghold 福井(Fukui).

The CDP-backed independent only has a chance because a LDP rebel (who was the former LDP speaker of the prefecture assembly and failed in his bid to get the LDP nomination) is in the mix.  The JCP candidate running mostly spoils such chances.


The LDP rebel sign does say that he is (an independent conservative, backed by JRP.)  This is a bad sign for him.  The LDP rebel should be trying to win the LDP vote.  Pushing the JRP angle might get him access to the ~10% JPR vote but weakens his ability to gain access to the huge LDP vote.  If I were him I would not mention JRP but instead, push "I am the real LDP in this race"

The CDP-backed independent does not mention CDP but uses a blue background to match CDP party colors.  It is a clever way to get CDP votes without directly offending anti-CDP voters

The JCP sign also asks for a PR vote for JCP which makes it clear what his campaign is all about: to get some more JCP PR votes since there is no way he can come anywhere close to winning.  In fact, he is certain to finish behind LDP LDP rebel and pro-CDP independent.  The Asahi projection has the JCP fighting for 5th place against PP.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,634
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #246 on: June 25, 2022, 06:30:35 AM »

I think there is a good chance of Komeito going down to 6 PR seats. They almost missed out in 2019 when their 7th candidate was the 49th person elected, had the number of PR seats remained at 48, they would've lost. They also undeperformed expectations in the last 2 national elections. The party is slowly dying off and they can't really draw from the large pool of floating voters.

I agree that in the long run, the KP urban base is slowly dying out as it becomes more Southern and more rural.  Still, since KP has a very strong political survaliance system they must be aware of that.  For them to set a target of 7 means they either think that turnout will be low so they can win 7 or they think they can get enough marginal KP PR votes out.  Either way one takes great risks to bet against KP High Command projections and goals.
Logged
Logical
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 675


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #247 on: June 25, 2022, 07:01:11 AM »

The size of the Japanese electorate continues to decline after peaking at 2016 as Japan's population shrinks.

2010: 104,029,135   
2012: 103,959,866
2013: 104,152,590
2014: 104,067,104
2015: Minimum voting age is lowered from 20 to 18
2016: 106,202,873
2017: 106,091,229
2019: 105,886,064
2021: 105,622,758
2022: 105,438,138

The voting power disparity in three prefectures is above the 3 times limit the Supreme Court of Japan prescribed in previous rulings. The value of a vote in Fukui is now worth more than 3x a vote from Kanagawa (3.032), Miyagi (3.025), and Tokyo (3.014). This has to be corrected by the next cycle in 2025. There are a few ways to address this, the simplest is by giving Kanagawa, Miyagi and Tokyo another pair of seats. Another solution would be merging Fukui's constituency with a neighboring prefecture's (most likely Ishikawa), but this will be very unpopular among voters and LDP bosses in both prefectures. The most radical solution would be reforming the whole upper house electoral system but it's unlikely that Kishida has the political capital to enact a large reform such as this.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,634
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #248 on: June 25, 2022, 07:06:42 AM »

It seems there is a heat wave coming to Japan soon.  LDP better hope there are no power blackouts.  If there are blackouts that might impact LDP at least on the margins.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,634
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #249 on: June 25, 2022, 07:15:17 AM »

More party candidate MP position charts

LDP JRP PNHK DPP for Consituatonal revision, CDP RS JCP SDP against.  KP is in the middle.
LDP JRP PNHK DPP for military growth, CDP RS JCP SDP against.  KP is in the middle
LDP JRP PNHK DPP is mostly anti-PRC.  CDP RS JCP SDP KP is mostly not anti-PRC





LDP KP for keeping consumption tax, everyone else is for reducing consumption tax





LDP by itself is against allowing married couples to have separate surnames, everyone else is for with PNHK sort of being in the middle
LDP PNHK DPP for nuclear power, JCP RS SDP against, JRP KP CDP in the middle.  This is a change.  Both JRP and CDP used to be much more anti-nuclear.  But as energy prices surge and 2011 fades into the past they are moving toward a more pro-nuclear position.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 5 6 7 8 9 [10] 11 12 13 14 15 ... 27  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.07 seconds with 11 queries.