Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10

[jaichind]

https://www.mbc.co.jp/news/article/2022053100056554.html

For the first time in this election cycle, JCP withdraws a candidate in favor of the CDP candidate in 鹿児島(Kagoshima).   It will not make a difference in this prefecture where the LDP incumbent is sure to cruise to re-election but does show other JCP withdrawals are possible.

Where it would make a difference would be

1) 秋田(Akita) - here a pro-CDP independent and a center-right pro-DPP independent are in the fray. If JCP pulls out the pro-CDP independent does have a tiny chance of winning if the pro-DPP independent pulls in more JRP and some LDP votes than pro-CDP opposition votes.

2) 山形(Yamagata) - Here the CDP is backing the DPP incumbant.  Given the poor relationships between JCP and DPP, it is unlikely JCP will pull out.  The DPP incumbent is actually favored to win even if the JCP does not pull out.

3) 滋賀(Shiga) - Here CDP and DPP are jointly backing an independent against the LDP incumbent.  If the JCP pulls out there is a tiny chance of the opposition independent winning.  If not it will be an easy LDP win for sure.

4) 長崎(Nagasaki) - This is an open seat and there are signs of anti-LDP unrest.  CDP has a fairly inexperienced candidate and if the JCP pulls out there might a small chance of an upset.

5) 大分(Ōita) - The DPP incumbent should be favored but he faces an opposition rebel and JCP to split the anti-LDP vote.  If JCP does not pull out he is likely to lose.  Given the poor relationship between DPP and JCP this is not likely to take place.

[jaichind]

Local media came out with PR polls for 高知(Kōchi) and 徳島(Tokushima) with comparison to 2019 and 2021 PR performance.

高知(Kōchi)
                       2019      2021       2022 poll
LDP                36.09%  37.97%       38.4
KP                  15.29%  14.99%        6.9
PNHK               1.99%    1.24%        0.5
JRP                  4.68%    6.10%        4.8
DPP                 6.55%    3.03%         1.4
CDP               12.03%  21.68%         8.2
RS                   4.47%    3.02%         0.8
SDP                 2.38%    1.55%         0.5
JCP                 15.12%  10.43%        7.0


徳島(Tokushima)
               
                      2019      2021        2022 poll
LDP               38.25%  35.76%        38.9
KP                 16.46%  14.43%         4.4
PNHK              2.80%    1.48%          0.9
JRP                 8.78%  17.04%        11.5
DPP                5.51%    3.89%          1.5
CDP              13.04%   15.59%         5.5
RS                  3.87%    3.76%          0.5
SDP                1.47%    1.17%          0.7
JCP                 8.34%    6.87%          3.8

Once you factor in the fact that many KP PR voters hide out as LDP PR voters and the undecided will break against LDP-KP, this poll indicates LDP-KP is in solid shape, JRP is clearly making gains, and CDP is polling badly.  CDP has to hope the undecides are hidden CDP voters that do not want to make it known they are for CDP but come out election day to vote CDP.

[jaichind]

It seems old dormant Far-Right 維新政党・新風 (IPS) (Ishin Party Shimpu) is also going to run a bunch of candidates.

This election cycle the minor party energy is all on the Far Right.  We have the 2 standard protest parties (PNHK which appeals to both the Right and Left protest) and HRP which has a protest Far-Right appeal.  But both are more about anti-system and protest votes than any idelogy.  Beyond that, we now have 4 Far-Right minor parties that seem to be going all out this cycle while the lean Left EP (Euthanasia Party) and Far-Left WP(Workers Party) seem to be dormant this cycle.

The 4 Far-Right parties have similar platforms: Nativism, aggressive foreign policy, pushing out Western liberal cultural influence, increase in the role of the Emperor

Each of the 4 has their own special niche

新党くにもり (NPC) (New Party Conservative) - their niche seems to be militarization and nuclear weapons
日本第一党 (JFP) (Japan First party) - their niche seems to be anti-DPRK and reducing the influence of Zainichi Koreans in Japan
維新政党・新風 (IPS) (Ishin Party Shimpu) - their niche seems to be restoring the role of the Emperor to the pre-1945 era
参政党 (PP) (Participation party) - their niche seems to be anti-woke anti-Western liberal influence and returning Japanese culture to a pre-1945 period

Frankly, all 4 parties would agree with the niches of all the others so I do not see why these 4 parties would not from an electoral front.   All of them seem insistent on running a large number of candidates.  Any disagreements between them seem like a battle between Judea Peoples Front and the People Front of Judea.  They only dilute their efforts by running separately.  The only theory I can think of is their goal is actually to cut in the LDP and JRP vote so LDP and JRP in the future will incorporate their ideas into their platform.

HRP's platform would pretty much share what these 4 parties would have other than increasing the role of the emperor but it would make no sense for HRP to be part of this Far-Right Front since HRP is always about protest and anti-system than being Far-Right.

Reading commentary from non-mainstream media outlets it seems out of these far-right parties it is 参政党 (PP)  that is catching fire.  It seems PP will have a chance to win a PR seat although its chances are most likely about the same as PNHK, non-zero but still not likely.   Again, if the other far-right parties dropped out of the PR race or the 4 far-right parties form a united front/slate their chances of actually winning a seat go up a lot.  It seems it is only sectarian reasons why this does not take place.

[jaichind]

A chart on what is going on in 神奈川(Kanagawa) this year



The idea is a 2019 JPR winner resigned to unsuccessfully run for mayor of Yokohama and the by-election be held at the same time as the 4- seat district election is being held in 2022 by having 5 winners with the 5th place winner serving out the remaining 3-year term with the first 4 placed winners server the regular 6 year term. 

The JRP MP that resigned, ex-governor 松沢成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi), is running for JRP again and could very well come in 5th place and serve out his original term.

[jaichind]

Asia Elects map on Japanese governor alignments.  Most of JRP backed split are really pro-LDP governors.  They might have been elected with JRP support (usually as part of a LDP civil war) but they are pro-LDP governors.

[jaichind]

Latest JX poll in swing prefectures


山形(Yamagata) - DPP incumbent well ahead despite JCP in the race
新潟(Niigata) - tossup with CDP incumbent slightly ahead - surprising given the LDP landslide victory in the governor election
岡山(Okayama) - LDP incumbent well ahead of CDP-DPP united front candidate
大分(Ōita) - tossup with LDP slightly ahead of DPP incumbent.  JCP and an opposition rebel splitting the anti-LDP vote is the likely reason for this
沖縄(Okinawa) - tossup with United opposition incumbent slightly ahead




埼玉(Saitama) - LDP CDP KP well ahead with pro-DPP independent incumbent slightly ahead of JRP and JCP for the 4th and last spot
東京(Tokyo) - LDP CDP KP JCP incumbent ahead, RS and LDP ahead of JRP CDP and 乙武 洋匡,(Ototake Hirotada) for the last 2 spots with DPP backed TPFA well behind.
神奈川(Kanagawa) - The two LDP candidates well ahead with JCP KP and CDP ahead of JCP for the last 3 spots for the 5 seats here.  CDP's second candidate well behind
静岡(Shizuoka) - LDP well ahead, ex-DP turned pro-LDP incumbent slightly ahead of DPP-JRP backed independent for the second seat with JCP well behind
京都(Kyoto) - LDP well ahead, CDP incumbent slightly ahead of JRP with JCP well behind
 
Other than Tokyo, JCP doing badly across the board.  LDP doing well across the board.

[jaichind]

Status of Center-Opposition-JCP seat adjustment in 1- member districts

In 青森(Aomori), 岩手(Iwate), 福島(Fukushima), 山梨(Yamanashi), 新潟(Niigata), 三重(Mie), 愛媛(Ehime), 熊本(Kumamoto), 鹿児島(Kagoshima), 沖縄(Okinawa): JCP has backed the Center-Left opposition candidate (CDP or pro-CDP independent)

In 和歌山(Wakayama) CDP will back the JCP candidate

In 宮城(Miyagi) and 長野(Nagano), JCP has not nominated a candidate but has not promised not to do so.  

JCP could also withdraw candidates from other 1- member districts.  One thing is clear, every 1- member district with a DPP or pro-DPP candidate will see a JCP candidate run.

[jaichind]

Political analyst 松田馨(Matsuda Kaoru) current projection



             District    PR     Total
LDP           43       18      61
KP              7          7     14
PNHK          0          0       0
PP               0         1       1
JRP             4          8     12
DPP            2          2       4
CDP          12          9      21
RS              1          2       3
SDP            0          0       0
JCP             1          3       4
OPPN          5          0       5  (pro-Opposition independents)

Note that he expects extreme Right PP to be the surprise fringe party of 2022 and win a PR seat just like PNHK was the surprise fringe party of 2019.

Going district by district his projection is identical to mine except for 宮城(Miyagi) where I expect CDP to win whereas he thinks the DP turned LDP incumbent will win.  To be fair this prefecture is the one I am least confident about in my projection.

His projection, like mine, tends to be more CDP friendly and less JRP friendly than CW where many think that JRP will win seats in 埼玉(Saitama), 東京(Tokyo), 京都(Kyoto), and even 愛知(Aichi) and 福岡(Fukuoka).  It seems like I, 松田馨(Matsuda Kaoru), tend to value name recognition and incumbency over party brand.

[jaichind]

Far-Right 参政党(PP) (Participation Party) seems to continue to gain steam.  The number of people that attend their rallies and watch online videos continues to rise rapidly.  There is growing speculation that they could be in a position to win a PR seat which is quite impressive they since have PNHK and HRP (which itself is Far-Right) as protest parties to peel off the anti-system vote as well as other Far-Right parties like 維新政党・新風 (IPS), 日本第一党(JFP) and 新党くにもり(NPC) in the fray to capture the Far-Right PR vote.

PP, sensing their momentum, seems to have gone all out and nominated candidates in pretty much all prefectures which says a lot about their fundraising capabilities.  

With this in mind, it would be useful to take a closer look at PP's platform.  

Their website is https://www.sanseito.jp/

and their logo is



First, PP or Participation Party is the name I made up for them.  They do not have an English name and in theory, their party name written in English is the phonetic version of 参政党 which is Sanseito.  参政党 means Participation Party which is why I prefer that for now until they ever come up with their official English name.

Their key platform points
a) Dramatic reduction of immigration and no voting rights for immigrants
b) Remilitariaton to be a part of an anti-PRC alliance in East Asia
c) Overturn the post-WWII international system with Japan being a full-blown equal to USA
d) Anti-Vax
e) Reduction of the power of banks with the promotion of digital currency and cryptos
f) Dramatic political decentralization with push for prefecture and even township rights (their "Do it yourself" slogan is part of this push)
g) Increased power of the Emperor (but not to pre-1945 levels)
h) Return Japanese culture to a pre-1945 era which an emphasis on pushing out foreign influence (especially removing the Western woke ideas)

If you watch their stump speeches it is clear that what is getting them to catch fire is the reduction of banking power, decentralization and their anti-Western woke stance.  Their success is a success of Right populism.  I can see them being a threat to JRP and could eat into the JRP vote.

[jaichind]

Weekly Post projection of race

             District    PR     Total
LDP           39       22      61
KP              7          7     14
PNHK          0          0       0
PP               0         0       0
JRP             5          7     12
DPP            2          2       4
CDP          13          7      20
RS              0          0       0
SDP            0          0       0
JCP             2          5       7
OPPN          7          0       7  (pro-Opposition independents)

The district seat count is probabilistic since they have pure tossups in a bunch of seats.




They have RS flopping with LDP doing very well in the PR section but facing a couple of unexpected setbacks in the district race.

What struck me in the district projections are
1) They project LDP victory for DP turned LDP incumbent in 宮城(Miyagi) whereas many views that race as tight
2) They project pro-CDP independent victory in 福島(Fukushima) whereas many view LDP as at least having the edge if not just an outright LDP win
3) They project a shock CDP victory in 富山(Toyama) over the LDP incumbent despite JCP being in the fray.  I assume they think JRP will surge here at the expense of LDP and give CDP a win in a 4-way race (LDP vs CDP vs JRP vs JCP)
4) They give 山梨(Yamanashi) to LDP and 新潟(Niigata) to CDP when it is the consensus both are tossups for the CDP incumbents
5) They give the 4th seat in 愛知(Aichi) to JCP versus the DPP incumbent which most expect to win a seat.  I guess they expect the JRP candidate to eat into the DPP vote and lets in JCP.
6) They have a 4-way tie in 京都(Kyoto) (LDP JCP JRP JCP) when most expect LDP to win with CDP and JRP fighting for the second spot and JCP being well behind
7) They expect LDP incumbents to be in tossups battles in 岡山(Okayama) and 愛媛(Ehime) when the consensus is that LDP is well ahead in both
8 ) They expect in 北海道(Hokkaido) a close race but with CDP winning 2 out of 3 seats when most expect a close race but with LDP winning 2 out of 3 seats.
9) They expect that in 東京(Tokyo) the second CDP candidate and independent 乙武洋匡(Ototake Hirotada) not to be even in the running for the 5th and 6th seats when the consensus is that both do have narrow shots at them.
10) They expect that in 神奈川(Kanagawa) JCP to be further behind the second CDP candidate in the running for the 5th seat when most expect them to have a better shot at it than the second CDP candidate.

The one on this list that is the hardest to believe is 富山(Toyama).  I frankly believe a JRP win her over the LDP incumbent before I believe CDP will win here meaning a JRP surge that is large enough to get CDP over LDP would mean JRP beats both, especially with JCP in the fray.

[jaichind]

LDP internal poll for Tokyo from early June

LDP    15.4%
CDP    13.8%
JCP     11.1%
LDP    10.9%
KP        9.0%
RS        5.4%
JRP       5.1%
TPFA     4.8% (backed by DPP)
CDP      4.0%

Looks like 乙武洋匡(Ototake Hirotada) did not get that much support.  KP for sure is underestimated most likely at the expense of LDP.  It seems the battle for the 6th and last seat will be a function of RS-CDP tactical voting vs JRP-TPFA tactical voting.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/757ee18fe9bd2c2fc1abe1d996e60bf93f285c52

Former DPJ PM 鳩山由紀夫(Hatoyama Yukio) who retired from politics in 2012 will make a jump back into politics.  It seems he will run in the next lower House elections under the label of his new party 共和党(RP) (Republican Party).  Former DPJ MP 首藤信彦(Shuto Nobuhiko) and member of RP will also run in the 神奈川(Kanagawa) district in the upper house.  Another nail in the coffin for the Center-Left forces there.  神奈川(Kanagawa) will almost certainly be a Right-Left split of 4-1.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/757ee18fe9bd2c2fc1abe1d996e60bf93f285c52

Former DPJ PM 鳩山由紀夫(Hatoyama Yukio) who retired from politics in 2012 will make a jump back into politics.  It seems he will run in the next lower House elections under the label of his new party 共和党(RP) (Republican Party).  Former DPJ MP 首藤信彦(Shuto Nobuhiko) and member of RP will also run in the 神奈川(Kanagawa) district in the upper house.  Another nail in the coffin for the Center-Left forces there.  神奈川(Kanagawa) will almost certainly be a Right-Left split of 4-1.

Why has he named the party this? What is "Republican" about it?

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/757ee18fe9bd2c2fc1abe1d996e60bf93f285c52

Former DPJ PM 鳩山由紀夫(Hatoyama Yukio) who retired from politics in 2012 will make a jump back into politics.  It seems he will run in the next lower House elections under the label of his new party 共和党(RP) (Republican Party).  Former DPJ MP 首藤信彦(Shuto Nobuhiko) and member of RP will also run in the 神奈川(Kanagawa) district in the upper house.  Another nail in the coffin for the Center-Left forces there.  神奈川(Kanagawa) will almost certainly be a Right-Left split of 4-1.

Why has he named the party this? What is "Republican" about it?

It is not clear.  "Republican" does not have historical meaning in Japanese politics unlike "Liberal" (Right) or "Democratic" (Left).  I am 90% sure 鳩山由紀夫(Hatoyama Yukio) and 首藤信彦(Shuto Nobuhiko) came up with this name for this new party mostly based on name recognition from the USA Republican party.

[jaichind]

PR voting polling curve

LDP surge due to Japan's response to the Ukraine crisis has abated a bit while JRP and CDP still neck-to-neck.

[jaichind]

JX PR poll.  This time they included polling for the various Far-Right minor parties including PP

LDP      36.1 (+1.6)
KP         6.3  (-0.2)
JFP        0.2    (far right)
PP         0.7    (far right)
IPS        0.0    (far right)
NPC       0.2    (far right)
HRP       0.2    (far right anti-system)
PNHK    0.8 (+0.3) (anti-system)
JRP     12.6 (-2.2)
DPP      2.8 (-0.1)
CDP    16.0 (-1.0)
RS       1.8 (+0.1)
SDP     0.7 (-0.3)
JCP      7.9 (+1.1)



JRP lost some ground to LDP and various far-right parties.  CDP lost some ground to JCP.  SDP PNHK and PP all could cross the ~1.9% threshold to gain a seat but all seem likely not to make it.

This poll shows the need for a far-right united front/list.  Such a list is likely to cross the threshold to win a PR seat.

[Logical]

Election date will be set on July 10th and nomination day on June 22nd. Interest in the election is at one of the lowest ever recorded so I expect turnout to be even worse than 2019. Good for Komeito, JCP and fringe parties with a dedicated voter base however.

[Frodo]

Here is a possible ramification of the upcoming elections next month, especially if the LDP triumphs as expected:

Japan PM's cautious course sets up potential long-term rule

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida did not look like he'd last long when he took office eight months ago.

He was seen as nice, but indecisive and subservient to party heavyweights. Many believed that, like his short-lived predecessor, he was not up to the task of winning over a public battered by months of pandemic restrictions and economic worries.

A recent surge in popularity, however, likely portends a victory in July elections that could set up a long stretch of uninterrupted power. That's saying something in a country where many past prime ministers had only relatively brief periods in office.

[jaichind]

Here is a possible ramification of the upcoming elections next month, especially if the LDP triumphs as expected:

Japan PM's cautious course sets up potential long-term rule

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida did not look like he'd last long when he took office eight months ago.

He was seen as nice, but indecisive and subservient to party heavyweights. Many believed that, like his short-lived predecessor, he was not up to the task of winning over a public battered by months of pandemic restrictions and economic worries.

A recent surge in popularity, however, likely portends a victory in July elections that could set up a long stretch of uninterrupted power. That's saying something in a country where many past prime ministers had only relatively brief periods in office.

I think this is fairly likely unless someone emerges from the opposition camp that can be a credible candidate for PM.  On the flip side, I am not sure the 2022 elections will be a landslide LDP victory.  Inflation is beginning to bite and there is some polling that this is becoming an issue for voters.  What is not clear is if the electorate is going to blame LDP for rising inflation.  In theory, inflation is what the policy makers want but what they had in mind is a sort of wage push version where consumers accept higher prices for domestic goods which allow domestic produces to raise wages and in turn push up demand.  The imported inflation Japan now has is now what the public policy makers had in mind.

[jaichind]

It seems that the founder of the defunct YP 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) is looking to run for re-election.  After YP fell apart and lost his Lower House seat in 2014,  渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) joined JRP in 2016 and was elected to the Upper House on the JRP PR slate in 2016.   He fell out with JRP afterward and formed an alliance with PNHK in 2019. 

Now he is looking to run again.  It is clear JRP will not run him.  Possible parties will be DPP, PNHK, or PP.  Out of these 3, PNHK and PP are more likely.  Other DPP PR candidates will view 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) trying to run on the DPP slate as trying to steal their slot and push back.  Both PNHK and PP are on the threshold of winning a PR seat and having the 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) personal vote could push them over the edge.  If 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) runs for PNHK or PP then the party he does run for is the odds-on favorite to win a PR seat in my view.

[jaichind]

In 3- member 千葉(Chiba) there is an exception that the vote share for the LDP candidates will be high.   In 千葉(Chiba) KP does not run a candidate so it is automatic that LDP will win 2 out of 3 seats while DP/CDP will battle JCP for the third seat usually with DP/CDP very likely to win.  This year JRP and DPP are also running a candidate to will further split the anti-LDP vote but not change the basic dynamic that CDP will win a seat and LDP will win 2 seats.

In this election, there is an emerging civil war within the LDP where in the pressure assembly the LDP has split into two blocs with each bloc backing one of the two LDP candidates.  It has become a prestige issue between the two factions to see which LDP candidate wins a greater vote share.  It seems the LDP machine is spending more time attacking each other than worrying about the opposition candidates.


So in 千葉(Chiba), there are two elections, there is a LDP vs LDP battle within the LDP ecosystem while there is a CDP vs JRP vs DPP vs JCP battle in the non-LDP ecosystem.  The rule of thumb is that LDP civil wars usually bring in voters outside of LDP to come in to intervene.  As a result, the two LDP candidates will most likely see a high vote share than justified by the partisan distribution of the prefecture.

[jaichind]

JX polls for 東京(Tokyo) and 神奈川(Kanagawa) and


In 6- member 東京(Tokyo)

The 4 incumbents LDP CDP KP JCP are ahead.  The next tier is LDP RS JRP CDP 乙武洋匡(Ototake Hirotada) while TPFA SDP is pretty much out of the game.  It seems LDP and RS are ahead of JRP for the last two seat.  The final winner of the 6th seat will be decided by RS-CDP-SDP and JRP-TPFA tactical voting.




In 5- member 神奈川(Kanagawa)

The 2 LDP candidates are in the top tier.  JRP KP CDP and JCP are in the next tier with CDP and DPP having no chance.  JRP KP CDP seems likely to win the final 3 seats with JCP hoping for an even split of the CDP vote to let them in to win the last seat.

[jaichind]

JPY crashes to 135 after BOJ did not raise rates to match the USA Fed rate increases.  It seems BOJ judges the domestic economy weak enough not to try to raise rates.  But doing so and creating a weak JPY will increase imported inflation.  The JPM CPI-adjusted currency strength indicator has JPY now at half the relative value it was in 2001.  The LDP is lucky that the election is on July 10 and not in the Fall as the domestic economic scene with respect to inflation will for sure get worse over the next few months.

[Logical]

JPY crashes to 135 after BOJ did not raise rates to match the USA Fed rate increases.  It seems BOJ judges the domestic economy weak enough not to try to raise rates.  But doing so and creating a weak JPY will increase imported inflation.  The JPM CPI-adjusted currency strength indicator has JPY now at half the relative value it was in 2001.  The LDP is lucky that the election is on July 10 and not in the Fall as the domestic economic scene with respect to inflation will for sure get worse over the next few months.

Kishida is indeed lucky that he will not have to face another major electoral test after this one until 2025. You can weather bad spells of cabinet disapproval as long as the spectre of imminent electoral troubles remains distant as Abe repeatedly proved.

[jaichind]

JPY crashes to 135 after BOJ did not raise rates to match the USA Fed rate increases.  It seems BOJ judges the domestic economy weak enough not to try to raise rates.  But doing so and creating a weak JPY will increase imported inflation.  The JPM CPI-adjusted currency strength indicator has JPY now at half the relative value it was in 2001.  The LDP is lucky that the election is on July 10 and not in the Fall as the domestic economic scene with respect to inflation will for sure get worse over the next few months.

Kishida is indeed lucky that he will not have to face another major electoral test after this one until 2025. You can weather bad spells of cabinet disapproval as long as the spectre of imminent electoral troubles remains distant as Abe repeatedly proved.

For national politics yes.  But there will be significant local elections in 2023 where most prefecture assemblies will face elections.  For rural prefectures where voting is based on the local LDP clientelist  kingpins I think the LDP-KP alliance will be fine. But imported inflation does build up this could hit the lower middle class in urban areas and they could turn against the LDP.  JRP is more likely than CDP to benefit from this though.