Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10
jaichind:
Quote from: Conservatopia on January 02, 2022, 05:29:06 PM
JRP is experiencing somewhat of a surge in support at the moment - if they could sustain or even build on this over the next six months what would their realistic best case be?
Even if the current JRP surge is sustained I think it will have a limited impact on the upcoming 2022 Upper House elections. JRP will benefit most from the PR slate where I guess it can go from the 5 PR seats it won in 2019 to something like 7 seats in a best-case scenario. Understand that the LDP outperforms on the Upper House PR slate since you can also vote for candidates in addition to parties on the Upper PR ballot and the LDP has an edge in political talent that can attract a personal vote that gets accrued to the LDP. Many of such voters would otherwise have voted for JRP.
In the district seat the pickens gets pretty slim for JRP. The JRP just does not have the political talent outside of Kinki and other urban centers to win. JRP will for sure win 2 seats in 大阪(Osaka) and 1 seat 兵庫(Hyōgo) and is very likely to win a seat in 神奈川(Kanagawa). But the 神奈川(Kanagawa) win merely gains back the seat it lost when its 2019 神奈川(Kanagawa) resigned to run for the mayor of 横浜(Yokohama) opening up the 神奈川(Kanagawa) district to have 5 instead of 4 winners where JRP is very likely to win one. Beyond that can win a seat in the 6- member東京(Tokyo) like it did in 2019 but this time around CDP political superstar Renho (former leader of DP) will most likely take a lot of marginal independent voters which are the type of voters that could vote JRP in a JRP surge year so JRP winning a seat here is not a lock with JCP and RS also in the hut for seats and LDP likely to win 2 seats and KP winning its customary seat.
Beyond these prefectures, it gets hard to see where else JRP can win. On paper 4- member 愛知(Aichi) is a good candidate given the urban nature of the prefecture and local TCJ is a JRP ally. The problem is likely JRP ally DPP has a current seat and will be looking to run for re-election and would pressure JRP not to go all out to win in case it hurts the DPP incumbent's chances of winning. Another possible but not likely place for JRP to win is 2- member 京都(Kyoto) but the LDP CDP and JCP seem to have a 3-way monopoly for 京都(Kyoto) Upper House elections and unless JRP comes up with a very strong candidate it will become a victim of tactical voting even if JRP has the theoretical base to win one of the 2 seats.
I can see the JRP in some rural 1- member prefectures where it has been trending JRP like 富山(Toyama) doing well enough to be the main opponent to LDP although in all of the LDP will win with ease.
JRP's big long-term problem is that for it to be a real viable alternative to LDP it has to claw some of the LDP votes as there are limits on how many Center-Left votes it can get. But a decline of the LDP vote would conjure the fear of the LDP and JRP voters that it might trigger a CDP-JCP government and these possible LDP defectors to JRP will run back to LDP to ensure that CDP-JCP does not win.
jaichind:
Some 2021 election PR and PR swing maps
LDP PR 2021. Stronger in rural areas and weaker in urban areas
LDP PR swing 2017 to 2021
LDP surges in rural areas and especially areas around 広島(Hiroshima) due to Kishida but loses ground in urban areas, especially in the Kinki areas to JRP. There was some sort of late revolt against LDP in the deep South 九州(Kyushu) area.
KP PR 2021. Strength the South
KP PR swing 2017 to 2021
Gains ground in the North most likely from marginal votes that went to CDP and HP back in 2017 but loses ground in Kinki to JRP and loses ground in the South to the LDP especially the area around Kishida's home prefecture of 広島(Hiroshima). KP does gain some ground in the deep South 九州(Kyushu) area where the anti-LDP shift might have moved some votes to KP.
jaichind:
More 2021 PR maps and swings
CDP PR 2021. Stronger in the North than the South
CDP PR 2017 to 2021 swing. Gains from the 2017 HP/DPP rural vote across the board but lose ground in urban areas to JRP and RS. Also lost ground across the board to JRP in the Kinki area especially in 大阪(Osaka). CDP 2017 was a very urban party. CDP 2021 is much more balanced.
JRP PR 2021. Very strong in Kinki area as well urban centers but spreading to some of the rural areas east of Kinki.
JRP PR swing 2017 to 2021
Surge across the board but especially in the Kinki and urban areas. The surge in Eastern 北海道(Hokkaido) is due to the impact of old LDP regional splinter NPD which and been an ally of DPJ is now an ally of JRP and transferred its vote base in Eastern 北海道(Hokkaido) to JRP
JIP PR 2014 to JRP PR 2021 swing
JIP in 2014 was made up of the core Osaka-based JRP plus various DPJ and YP rebels in the rest of Japan. In 2015 JIP split with the non-core Osaka part eventually merging with DPJ to form DP which in turn later split into CDP and DPP leaving a refounded JRP with its core Osaka vote. The 2014 to 2021 JIP to JRP swing shows the impact of that split with JRP still way below JIP outside the Kinki area but much stronger in the Kinki area. Also, you can see that the JRP is slowly spreading to rural prefectures in the proximity of Kinki like 富山(Toyama) and 徳島(Tokushima) as well as urban areas like Tokyo.
jaichind:
More 2021 PR maps and swings
JCP PR 2021. JCP has strength in certain prefectures but is generally weak in rural areas.
JCP PR 2017 to 2021 swing. Mostly lost some ground since 2017. In parts of the rural North JCP did lose some votes to CDP in 2017 which it is now regaining.
DPP PR 2021. A few areas of strength but generally stronger in rural areas than urban areas.
DPP PR 2019 to 2021 swing. 2021 DPP is a rump of 2019 DPP since most of DPP has since merged into CDP. You can see this with mostly Northern rural prefectures having a large swing of the 2019 DPP vote toward CDP. But it seems in urban areas the DPP is getting a positive swing which must be anti-JCP CDP voters angry at the CDP-JCP alliance. JCP is stronger in urban areas ergo they tend to pose a greater threat to CDP in urban areas whereas in rural areas JCP are weak and there is a lot less anti-JCP view within rural CDP voters.
RS PR 2021. Area of strength are in urban areas, especially around Greater Tokyo
RS PR 2019 to 2021 swing. RS is actually gaining ground in rural areas and lost some ground in urban areas. In 2019 RS was the hip party for the floating urban marginal voters to vote for. In 2021 that seems to be JRP and even DPP. RS made up for this by making gains in rural areas. It seems that in parts of deep South 九州(Kyushu) RS also gained from the local revolt there against LDP.
jaichind:
The fate of the 3 2016 DP winners that since became pro-LDP independents is interesting to follow. It seems the 静岡(Shizuoka) DP defector will not try to run for re-election clearing the way for the LDP and DPP to win the two seats in 2022.
In 宮城(Miyagi) the DP turned pro-LDP independent insisted on running for re-election while the local LDP branch had already come up with their own candidate. So it will be most likely LDP vs CDP vs pro-LDP DP defector.
In 福島(Fukushima) the situation is even more complex. The DP turned pro-LDP independent also insisted on running for re-election while the local LDP branch also came up with its own candidate. But it seems another LDP aspirant that did not get the local LDP branches node insists he will also run as well. So for now it will be LDP vs CDP vs pro-LDP DP defector vs LDP rebel.
It is always hard for these defectors to get the nomination. The local LDP branch has fought them as opposition candidates for years so it is hard to get them to back these defectors. Of course under the rule of "if you win you are LDP" if these DP turned pro-LDP defectors manage to win the race in either seat as a pro-LDP independent then they will be accepted by both the national LDP and very likely the local LDP branch and be allowed into the LDP caucus. It seems unlikely they will win though.
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