Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10

[jaichind]

Asahi calls 山形(Yamagata) for DPP which expected to win.  My projection beat NHK exit polls.



I am now 31 out of 32 for 1- member district seats.  Only 沖縄(Okinawa) is left which I called for LDP.  Looking at the results there I think OPPN has a better chance of winning than LDP but it will be close.

[jaichind]

Another reason for LDP's underperformance in 福井(Fukui):  With 37% of the vote in PP has 7.1% of the vote versus 4.9% JCP.  I guess a lot of center-right voters choose to go with PP to protest the LDP putting forward a candidate that is most likely too old.

[jaichind]

Another reason for LDP's underperformance in 福井(Fukui):  With 37% of the vote in PP has 7.1% of the vote versus 4.9% JCP.  I guess a lot of center-right voters choose to go with PP to protest the LDP putting forward a candidate that is most likely too old.

With 61% of the vote in for 福井(Fukui), PP's vote share has surged to 9.0% !!!

[jaichind]

Akita is a missed chance for the opposition. If they had gotten behind the DPP independent they would have taken it from LDP.

In theory.  But the pro-DPP independent is fairly right-wing in his views and I will find it hard to believe the more leftist part of CDP or JCP would have voted for him if it was him vs LDP.  They would have stayed home.

[jaichind]

With 66% of the vote in for 沖縄(Okinawa), it is LDP 47.8 OPPN 47.0 PP 3.3 PNHK 1.1 HRP 0.8.  It is coming down to the wire.  If the LDP end up losing they can reasonably blame PP for the loss.

[jaichind]

With 36% of the vote in Tokyo, it is

LDP    15.4 (called)
KP      12.8 (called)
CDP    12.3 (called)
JCP     11.8 (called)
LDP    10.4
RS      10.3
JRP      9.1
CDP     5.4
Ind.     5.4
TPFA    4.6

LDP RS and JRP as expected fighting for the last 2 seats. There were some tactical voting by the second CDP candidate and TPFA and Ind. candidate voters but it was not that complete.

[jaichind]

With 38% of the vote in 北海道(Hokkaido) it is

LDP       26.6 (called)
LDP        21.3
CDP        19.4
CDP        19.0
JCP          6.4
DPP          2.9
PP            2.2

LDP and 2 CDP candidates are in a near 3-way tie to fight for the last 2 seats.  The 2 CDP candidates doing better than I expected.

[jaichind]

Both NHK and Asahi have called 京都(Kyoto) for LDP CDP to beat out JRP.  Fits the pattern of JRP underperformance in multi-member districts due to Abe's assassination. 

[jaichind]

With 82% of the vote counted in 京都(Kyoto) it is

LDP      29.2 (called)
CDP      27.0 (called)
JRP       25.2
JCP       13.0
PP          2.8
IPS         1.6 (far right)

CDP beat back JRP mostly due to JCP voter tactical voting given JCP's vote share of 13.0 here

[jaichind]

With 89% of the vote counted in  沖縄(Okinawa) it is

OPPN   47.1
LDP     46.5
PP        4.1
PNHK    1.5
HRP      0.8

The anti-system parties got over 6% of the vote.  Everything comes down to the outstanding votes in 那覇市 (Naha City).  These votes historically lean anti-LDP so I would say OPPN has the edge now.

[jaichind]

With 4% of the PR vote in, the results plus implied seat allocation are

The count is very rural heavy.  As more votes come in LDP will go down and JRP/JCP will go up.  So far PNHK and SDP are outperforming and above the threshold

                                                  My prediction
            PR   Vote share              PR  vote share          
LDP      23      43.2%                 21     39.0%            
KP         7       12.9%                  7     12.5%                
PP         1         2.6%                  1      2.0%            
PNHK     1         1.9%                  0      1.0%              
JRP        4         8.7%                  7    14.0%                
DPP       2         4.2%                  3      5.5%            
CDP       7       142.%                  7    13.5%                                
RS         1         3.6%                  1      3.5%              
SDP       1         2.3%                  0      1.5%
JCP        3         5.6%                  4      7.5%              
Others              0.8%                          1.0%

[jaichind]

In 愛知(Aichi) with 75% of the vote in the 4 incumbents are ahead

LDP      28.9 (called)
KP        14.2 (called)
CDP      14.1 (called)
DPP      13.7
JRP       12.0
JCP        6.8
RS         3.0
PP         2.9

It is DPP vs JRP for the last seat and most likely the DPP incumbent will hold on to win

[jaichind]

Asahi has called Okinawa for the opposition candidate. Final split in the single member districts is LDP 28 OPPO 4.

First miss for me for the night.

My track record of Upper House 1- member districts throughout the years

2013:  30-1
2016:  32-0
2019:  31-1
2022:  31-1

PP surge scammed me out of a clean sweep in 1- member districts in time around

[jaichind]

Ashai called the last 愛知(Aichi) seat for DPP over JRP

[jaichind]

In 熊本(Kumamoto) with almost all the votes counted it is

LDP       62.3
CDP       21.7
PP         11.3 !!
PNHK      4.6 !!

Anti-system vote here is almost 16% !!  In rural Japan, people are angry and will vote to express their anger as they see LDP and CDP are not the answer to their problems.

[jaichind]

With 66% of the vote in 北海道(Hokkaido) it is

LDP        25.7 (called)
LDP        20.3
CDP        19.5
CDP        18.7
JCP          7.2
DPP          3.4
PP            2.8

Close fight between LDP and the CDP candidates for the last 2 seats.  The second LDP candidate seems to have the edge here to at least come in third.

[jaichind]

With 8% of the PR vote in, the results plus implied seat allocation are

The count is very rural heavy.  As more votes come in LDP will go down and JRP/JCP will go up.  So far PNHK and SDP are outperforming and above the threshold.  PP at 2.9%. Wow.  The anti-system parties are doing better than expected in rural areas.  We will see how their vote holds up in urban areas.

                                                  My prediction
            PR   Vote share              PR  vote share         
LDP      22      41.0%                 21     39.0%           
KP         7       12.9%                  7     12.5%               
PP         1         2.9%                  1      2.0%           
PNHK     1         2.0%                  0      1.0%             
JRP        5       10.8%                  7    14.0%               
DPP       2         4.3%                  3      5.5%           
CDP       7       13.2%                  7    13.5%                               
RS         2         3.8%                  1      3.5%             
SDP       1         2.2%                  0      1.5%
JCP        3         6.0%                  4      7.5%             
Others              0.9%                          1.0%

[jaichind]

Looking at the PR numbers so far it seems the PP and PNHK strategy of running candidates in every prefecture is paying off.  The question is, especially for PNHK where they ran multiple candidates in multi-member districts, who is paying for all this?

[jaichind]

北海道(Hokkaido) had a vote dump surge for CDP and with 79% of the vote counted it is

LDP        26.0 (called)
CDP        19.5
LDP        19.4
CDP        19.3
JCP          6.7
DPP          3.5
PP            2.8

Amazing 3 way tied for the last 2 seats

[jaichind]

北海道(Hokkaido) had a vote dump surge for CDP and with 79% of the vote counted it is

LDP        26.0 (called)
CDP        19.5
LDP        19.4
CDP        19.3
JCP          6.7
DPP          3.5
PP            2.8

Amazing 3 way tied for the last 2 seats

Clear signs of tactical voting by JCP voters since they usually poll much better than this.

Yep, the same thing happen in 2016.  Also, these results also show that part of the JRP and KP PR vote defected to CDP.

[jaichind]

In 神奈川(Kanagawa) 70% of the vote in it is

LDP       21.0 (called)
JRP        15.2 (called)
LDP       14.8 (called)
KP         14.3 (called)
CDP         9.7
JCP          8.7
DPP          5.5
CDP         5.2
PP           2.3

CDP is ahead of JCP for the 5th and final seat which only has 3 years left in the term.  In the end there was some tactical voting between the 2 CDP candidates to get them ahead of JCP.

[jaichind]

With 12% of the PR vote in, the results plus implied seat allocation are

The count is very rural heavy.  As more votes come in LDP will go down and JRP/JCP will go up.  

                                                  My prediction
            PR   Vote share              PR  vote share        
LDP      22      40.7%                 21     39.0%          
KP         6       12.5%                  7     12.5%              
PP         1         2.8%                  1      2.0%          
PNHK     1         2.0%                  0      1.0%            
JRP        5       11.0%                  7    14.0%              
DPP       2         5.0%                  3      5.5%          
CDP       7       12.9%                  7    13.5%                              
RS         2         3.8%                  1      3.5%            
SDP       1         2.3%                  0      1.5%
JCP        3         6.0%                  4      7.5%            
Others              1.0%                          1.0%

If SDP PNHK and PP all cross the threshold there is a chance that KP might be held to 6 PR which is a disaster for them since they would have missed their goal of 7 seats.  Knowing KP's dark electoral magic  I suspect in the end SDP does not make it past the threshold helping get KP to 7 seats anyway.

The JCP numbers do not look good at all.  I think they can get to 7% as urban votes come in but it is a pretty bad  result for them.

[jaichind]

Asahi called 北海道(Hokkaido) for LDP CDP LDP.  I hope they know what they are doing because the current count is

LDP      26.6
CDP      19.5
LDP      19.1
CDP      19.0
JCP        6.5
DPP       3.5
PP         2.8

neck-to-neck between LDP and CDP for the third spot.

[jaichind]

With the close results in the multi member districts making such a key difference, how do regular voters determine which candidate of the party they prefer to go with? I understand Komeito's voting networks are extremely precise but how does a regular CDP or LDP voter make sure that their vote is efficient?

Also, the one thing that I expected last night was that Sanseito would overperform after seeing them draw crowds of a size no >1% party could garner. It seemed doubtful that their likely voters would be swayed by a sympathy vote.

https://twitter.com/sanseito_johoku/status/1545702141666672640

The assassination probably cost Ishin Nara and Kyoto though.

My mental model was that the assassination would push up turnout with marginal voters which would dilute the anti-system vote.  I also figured the assassination would at least reduce anti-system turnout.  Instead, it seems the anti-system vote is stronger than ever.

As for vote coordination, the local party organization I heard does stuff like "men vote for A, women vote for B" or some other scheme like this.  I hear less of these stories last decade or so.

[jaichind]

With 20% of the PR vote in, the results plus implied seat allocation are

Some urban votes are coming in.  CDP numbers look very bad. 

                                                  My prediction
            PR   Vote share              PR  vote share       
LDP      21      39.3%                 21     39.0%         
KP         7       12.7%                  7     12.5%             
PP         1         2.9%                  1      2.0%         
PNHK     1         2.0%                  0      1.0%           
JRP        6       11.9%                  7    14.0%             
DPP       2         4.9%                  3      5.5%         
CDP       6       12.4%                  7    13.5%                             
RS         2         4.2%                  1      3.5%           
SDP       1         2.3%                  0      1.5%
JCP        3         6.5%                  4      7.5%           
Others              0.9%                          1.0%