Was Biden’s 2020 win a fluke?

[Tekken_Guy]

Was Biden’s win over Trump in 2020 just a fluke?

[EJ24]

No.

Trump was a historically unpopular incumbent his entire presidency, badly mishandled a pandemic crisis, and Biden was a solid candidate who successfully built a coalition of suburban moderates and the Democratic base. He led Trump in the polls nearly the entire cycle. Almost everything since late 2019 pointed to a Biden win.

[TML]

With the way Trump mishandled the pandemic and the subsequent civil unrest, nearly any Democrat could have won with a remotely competent campaign. However, without those two strikes against Trump, Biden might have fallen victim the same way Hillary did (like Hillary, Biden was another politician whose favorability decreased the more he spoke in public).

[Pericles]

With the way Trump mishandled the pandemic and the subsequent civil unrest, nearly any Democrat could have won with a remotely competent campaign. However, without those two strikes against Trump, Biden might have fallen victim the same way Hillary did (like Hillary, Biden was another politician whose favorability decreased the more he spoke in public).

Biden's favorability rating significantly increased over the course of the general election campaign and went into net positive territory. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president/trumpbidenfavorability.html

[Mr. Smith]

No.

He literally pulled off the Trump card against Trump, who himself arguably defeated Hillary by out Hillary-ing Hillary.

You just can't beat your opponent, with all the mistakes you both have, if you're the one less likable. Your opponent can say and do anything at that point, even if they are technically worse. Hell, being worse might even add some refuge in audacity!

[TML]

With the way Trump mishandled the pandemic and the subsequent civil unrest, nearly any Democrat could have won with a remotely competent campaign. However, without those two strikes against Trump, Biden might have fallen victim the same way Hillary did (like Hillary, Biden was another politician whose favorability decreased the more he spoke in public).

Biden's favorability rating significantly increased over the course of the general election campaign and went into net positive territory. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president/trumpbidenfavorability.html

My point was that Biden benefited from the pandemic forcing him to stay in his own basement for extended periods of time (him being out of the spotlight and not making many public statements tends to increase his favorability rating, while him making public statements - especially those with gaffes - tends to decreased his favorability rating). Given how many public gaffes he’s made in recent years, I think his favorability rating would not have increased as much had he been forced to do as much in-person campaigning as Hillary did in 2016.

[Liberalrocks]

No, it was an election on paper that Trump should have won had he handed Covid even marginally better then he did.

[BigVic]

It’s on par with 1976. He was facing an unpopular incumbent

[pbrower2a]

Incumbent Presidents eligible for re-election who seek re-election get re-elected unless they are shown to be catastrophic failures as President (Hoover, Carter) or they run incompetent or spiritless campaigns (Ford, the elder Bush). Dubya got away with deeds that would prove harmful only after he was re-elected (war in Iraq, neglect of levees in New Orleans, failure to rein in financial cheats in lending and real estate).

The fluke is that Trump was a disaster in himself. Incumbency has its advantages to the extent that he:

• has the media focus
  has the diplomatic corps, the intelligence agencies,  and the Armed Services trying to solve problems
  has the Federal Reserve to do what is appropriate to maintain prosperity
  has federal law enforcement and federal courts cracking down on overt criminality

even if this is independent of the President or otherwise non-partisan.

A President ideally avoids insulting big blocs of the vote. As someone with a handicap I can not vote for anyone who insults people like me who have real problems not their fault, whether those are my specific handicap (autistic spectrum) or something analogous (amputations). To be sure, stupid and delusional people should reasonably expect to have limited roles in the economic system; alcoholics and addicts have always been fair game.

Religious, ethnic, and vocational groups are not to be mocked. Trump did this.

Corruption is unacceptable. Trump had the most scandal-prone Administration ever.

Most people recognize cruelty as the fount of great evil. Trump proved a cruel person.

Trump is generally recognized as a poor President. The top ten according to C-SPAN's survey of professional (I assume academic) historians as of 2021:

 Abraham Lincoln   897   1
George Washington   851   2
Franklin D. Roosevelt   841   3
Theodore Roosevelt   785   4

One established what the Presidency is; one saved the Union; one saved Western Christian Civilization from the two most demonic superpowers to have ever existed. TR did major reforms appropriate for the time that remain models for later history.  

Dwight D. Eisenhower   734   5
Harry S. Truman   713   6
Thomas Jefferson   704   7

The standing of Eisenhower rose from an assessment of sub-mediocrity to near the top. He made few mistakes as President. He gets credit for the Interstate Highway system, backing the Supreme Court on decisions involving civil rights, and staying clear of the temporary allure of the dangerous demagogue Joseph R. McCarthy. Truman ties up the loose ends of the Second World War. Jefferson presided over the first overseas action of the USA against the Barbary pirates and bought the Louisiana Purchase that peacefully doubled the size of the USA. Jefferson slips a bit for slavery; such is a changing assessment.

John F. Kennedy   699   8   
Ronald Reagan   681   9   
Barack Obama   664   10

Three optimists. Reagan and Obama got re-elected after changing the direction of the country. Kennedy was on track to getting re-elected until some mixed-up young man assassinated him. These are still comparatively recent Presidents, and their standing can rise or fall with subsequent  assessments. They exceeded expectations of even their opponents.

Bottom 10:

Zachary Taylor   449   35   
Herbert Hoover   396   36   
Warren Harding   388   37   
Millard Fillmore   378   38   
John Tyler           354   39   
William Harrison   354   40   
Donald J. Trump   312   41   
Franklin Pierce   312   42   
Andrew Johnson   230   43   
J. Buchanan   227   44

It will be incredibly difficult for any President to outdo James Buchanan for awfulness short of putting America at risk of dissolution. Andrew Johnson will be recognized as the President who lost much through neglect what the Union won in the Civil War. Taylor, Tyler, Fillmore, and Pierce were the weak Presidents who did nothing to stave off the power of slave-owning interests; they appeased the interests that sought to expand the power of slave-owners. Warren G. Harding was long the most corrupt President in American history. Hoover presided over the longest and severest economic meltdown in American history -- one that made possible the rise of the Antichrist in Germany, so that is itself a monstrous disaster in itself.

I would likely have sought to disqualify William Henry Harrison for having a very short Presidency and achieving nothing while President. What else could anyone expect?

Trump starts basically tied with Franklin Pierce. Obama four years later is #10, which is an improvement. All in all, Obama made few mistakes. He never abused power for personal gratification or gain. He did not try to sell out American interests to dictatorial powers. He successfully got the worst terrorist in world history to that point... whacked... which requires a President with cordial relations with the intelligence agencies and Armed Forces. He set in motion economic policies that turned around the most dangerous economic meltdown in nearly 80 years. It's clear that Trump held Obama in contempt out of personal spite, which is not a good position for setting solid public policy.

What is amazing isn't that Trump lost; it is instead that he came so close to getting re-elected! 

[Pres Mike]

Incumbent Presidents eligible for re-election who seek re-election get re-elected unless they are shown to be catastrophic failures as President (Hoover, Carter) or they run incompetent or spiritless campaigns (Ford, the elder Bush). Dubya got away with deeds that would prove harmful only after he was re-elected (war in Iraq, neglect of levees in New Orleans, failure to rein in financial cheats in lending and real estate).

The fluke is that Trump was a disaster in himself. Incumbency has its advantages to the extent that he:

• has the media focus
  has the diplomatic corps, the intelligence agencies,  and the Armed Services trying to solve problems
  has the Federal Reserve to do what is appropriate to maintain prosperity
  has federal law enforcement and federal courts cracking down on overt criminality

even if this is independent of the President or otherwise non-partisan.

A President ideally avoids insulting big blocs of the vote. As someone with a handicap I can not vote for anyone who insults people like me who have real problems not their fault, whether those are my specific handicap (autistic spectrum) or something analogous (amputations). To be sure, stupid and delusional people should reasonably expect to have limited roles in the economic system; alcoholics and addicts have always been fair game.

Religious, ethnic, and vocational groups are not to be mocked. Trump did this.

Corruption is unacceptable. Trump had the most scandal-prone Administration ever.

Most people recognize cruelty as the fount of great evil. Trump proved a cruel person.

Trump is generally recognized as a poor President. The top ten according to C-SPAN's survey of professional (I assume academic) historians as of 2021:

 Abraham Lincoln 897 1
George Washington 851 2
Franklin D. Roosevelt 841 3
Theodore Roosevelt 785 4

One established what the Presidency is; one saved the Union; one saved Western Christian Civilization from the two most demonic superpowers to have ever existed. TR did major reforms appropriate for the time that remain models for later history.  

Dwight D. Eisenhower 734 5
Harry S. Truman 713 6
Thomas Jefferson 704 7

The standing of Eisenhower rose from an assessment of sub-mediocrity to near the top. He made few mistakes as President. He gets credit for the Interstate Highway system, backing the Supreme Court on decisions involving civil rights, and staying clear of the temporary allure of the dangerous demagogue Joseph R. McCarthy. Truman ties up the loose ends of the Second World War. Jefferson presided over the first overseas action of the USA against the Barbary pirates and bought the Louisiana Purchase that peacefully doubled the size of the USA. Jefferson slips a bit for slavery; such is a changing assessment.

John F. Kennedy 699 8
Ronald Reagan 681 9
Barack Obama 664 10

Three optimists. Reagan and Obama got re-elected after changing the direction of the country. Kennedy was on track to getting re-elected until some mixed-up young man assassinated him. These are still comparatively recent Presidents, and their standing can rise or fall with subsequent  assessments. They exceeded expectations of even their opponents.

Bottom 10:

Zachary Taylor 449 35
Herbert Hoover 396 36
Warren Harding 388 37
Millard Fillmore 378 38
John Tyler        354 39
William Harrison 354 40
Donald J. Trump 312 41
Franklin Pierce 312 42
Andrew Johnson 230 43
J. Buchanan 227 44

It will be incredibly difficult for any President to outdo James Buchanan for awfulness short of putting America at risk of dissolution. Andrew Johnson will be recognized as the President who lost much through neglect what the Union won in the Civil War. Taylor, Tyler, Fillmore, and Pierce were the weak Presidents who did nothing to stave off the power of slave-owning interests; they appeased the interests that sought to expand the power of slave-owners. Warren G. Harding was long the most corrupt President in American history. Hoover presided over the longest and severest economic meltdown in American history -- one that made possible the rise of the Antichrist in Germany, so that is itself a monstrous disaster in itself.

I would likely have sought to disqualify William Henry Harrison for having a very short Presidency and achieving nothing while President. What else could anyone expect?

Trump starts basically tied with Franklin Pierce. Obama four years later is #10, which is an improvement. All in all, Obama made few mistakes. He never abused power for personal gratification or gain. He did not try to sell out American interests to dictatorial powers. He successfully got the worst terrorist in world history to that point... whacked... which requires a President with cordial relations with the intelligence agencies and Armed Forces. He set in motion economic policies that turned around the most dangerous economic meltdown in nearly 80 years. It's clear that Trump held Obama in contempt out of personal spite, which is not a good position for setting solid public policy.

What is amazing isn't that Trump lost; it is instead that he came so close to getting re-elected! 

Why did you say FDR saved western christan civilzation? The Nazis/Japanese were not just attacking christanity or the west in general, they wanted the whole world

[MARGINS6729]

With the way Trump mishandled the pandemic and the subsequent civil unrest, nearly any Democrat could have won with a remotely competent campaign. However, without those two strikes against Trump, Biden might have fallen victim the same way Hillary did (like Hillary, Biden was another politician whose favorability decreased the more he spoke in public).

Biden's favorability rating significantly increased over the course of the general election campaign and went into net positive territory. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president/trumpbidenfavorability.html

My point was that Biden benefited from the pandemic forcing him to stay in his own basement for extended periods of time (him being out of the spotlight and not making many public statements tends to increase his favorability rating, while him making public statements - especially those with gaffes - tends to decreased his favorability rating). Given how many public gaffes he’s made in recent years, I think his favorability rating would not have increased as much had he been forced to do as much in-person campaigning as Hillary did in 2016.

I completely disagree, I don't think the basement stuff helped him. It led to the GOP being able to define him with voters who were unfamiliar with him. The whole ''Biden js a trojan horse for socialism'' stuck a lot more because he couldn't campaign in person. Yes, he has his gaffes but he's a great retail politician and speaker. That would have helped him a lot with Hispanic voters.

[Vice President Christian Man]

No, but I think Trump would've been able to pull it off with lower voter turnout.

[Redban]

No -- with the current electorate, Democrats always have a huge advantage. Republicans have to win almost every swing state to get a win.

[Mr. Smith]

No -- with the current electorate, Democrats always have a huge advantage. Republicans have to win almost every swing state to get a win.

Is that why, the map  has favored the GOP the last two times to the point that even 7 million votes was almost not enough?