India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec

[randomusername]

Zee News final Punjab poll has SAD+ surging at the expense of AAP leading to a completely deadlocked assembly.

               Seats     Vote share
AAP           41             34%
INC           40              30%
SAD+        27              25%
BJP+          5                 6%
Others        4                 5% (2 of the 4 must be LIF)

In this scenario, what do you think would happen? Would AAP or Congress be able to successfully poach enough MLAs for a majority, form an alliance with each other or SAD, or eventually hold another election in the fall?

[randomusername]

Looks like INC will win Uttarakhand, BJP will narrowly win in UP and AAP will win in Punjab.

Didn't the exit polls last time overestimate AAP?

[randomusername]

Obviously very early but I'm surprised by the INC's strength in Manipur thus far. According to the Times of India, right now it is:

17 BJP

14 INC

4 NPP

Easily could go away, but I was expecting very few seats for them.

[randomusername]

Does it look like the BJP will get a majority in UP at the moment

My general expectation is that they were going to pre-election, more of a question of how much. I'm guessing 260+ seats.

[randomusername]

I was thinking of this analogy lately but tell me if you think this accurate. In some ways politics in India someway mirror the South here.

Both places were very culturally conservative along with very rural places and despite that were completely dominated by the more left leaning party for decades and decades in large parts due to historical affinity for that party. In both cases the right leaning parties first found strength with middle class voters in urban areas and then used that as a springboard to gain more and more influence.

Vajpayee victories in many ways seem like the early mid 1980s south were you see a pre dominantly urban party gain power through strength in urban/suburban areas but are unable to hold power for long which leads to a period of one final period of power for the historically dominant party .

1994 also seems like 2014 where Republicans and BJP make huge inroads in rural areas and pretty much finally supplant the Democrats/Congress as the dominant party. Then despite holding power both the GOP/BJP make further gains for years on end as they are able to start to make permanent inroads with voters in rural areas and regions which were once hostile territory for the party .



So it could be any left party that takes party in India now will probably have to do it through making massive inroads in Urban areas as the old INC coalition seems dead

I don't completely agree with this, but to further the analogy, the Democratic party was the de facto party of the South. As a result factions within the party bubbled up. As you could see with Indira Gandhi's faction vs the INC (O)/Syndicate. In addition, both share a commonality of having a lot of dynastic politicians. For the Congress, the Gandhis, Scindias, Pilots, etc. For the South you had the Longs, Wallaces, Pryors, Folsoms, etc.

[randomusername]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-12/modi-s-india-prefers-to-ignore-75th-anniversary-of-independence#xj4y7vzkg

The British left behind in 1947 a ruling class that upheld liberal norms and institutions — and, in the Hindu nationalist worldview held by the New India’s foot soldiers, was also effete, deracinated and entirely Anglicized. Being ruled by Western-educated leaders such as Jawaharlal Nehru, independent India’s first prime minister, was no better than being ruled by the British or the Mughals, rendering “independence” meaningless.

Apparently liberals are now pro colonization also lol how they use the terms "old republic" throughout this piece like Modi is the Indian version of Palpatine

I do think BJP does need to think through its views on the identity of India.  They are clearly trying to create an Indo-Aryan Hindu identity as the Indian identity.  What is not clear is do they see this Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a civilizational state or do they see it as a Hindu Rastra.  There are several stands within the BJP that seems to advocate for one or another.  One way to tell is to ask the question "Do you consider the Moghul empire as a part of Indian history"  Those for Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a civilizational state would say "Yes" and those for Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a Hindu Rastra would say "No".  On my few trips to India, I would ask people, especially those that I can tell are pro-BJP this question.   Some of the younger people I asked would get confused about what I would ask this question but some of the older people I asked that have thought about this issue quickly caught on what I was getting at and asking about.

Yah when this topic is brought up with family members, they do not consider the Mughal Empire to be Indian but rather a foreign power occupying India just like the British and many consider the Mughals to be worse than the British Raj as well .


 

Just curious, what part of India is your family from?

[randomusername]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-12/modi-s-india-prefers-to-ignore-75th-anniversary-of-independence#xj4y7vzkg

The British left behind in 1947 a ruling class that upheld liberal norms and institutions — and, in the Hindu nationalist worldview held by the New India’s foot soldiers, was also effete, deracinated and entirely Anglicized. Being ruled by Western-educated leaders such as Jawaharlal Nehru, independent India’s first prime minister, was no better than being ruled by the British or the Mughals, rendering “independence” meaningless.

Apparently liberals are now pro colonization also lol how they use the terms "old republic" throughout this piece like Modi is the Indian version of Palpatine

I do think BJP does need to think through its views on the identity of India.  They are clearly trying to create an Indo-Aryan Hindu identity as the Indian identity.  What is not clear is do they see this Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a civilizational state or do they see it as a Hindu Rastra.  There are several stands within the BJP that seems to advocate for one or another.  One way to tell is to ask the question "Do you consider the Moghul empire as a part of Indian history"  Those for Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a civilizational state would say "Yes" and those for Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a Hindu Rastra would say "No".  On my few trips to India, I would ask people, especially those that I can tell are pro-BJP this question.   Some of the younger people I asked would get confused about what I would ask this question but some of the older people I asked that have thought about this issue quickly caught on what I was getting at and asking about.

Yah when this topic is brought up with family members, they do not consider the Mughal Empire to be Indian but rather a foreign power occupying India just like the British and many consider the Mughals to be worse than the British Raj as well .


 

Just curious, what part of India is your family from?

Gujarat

Interesting, the reason why I ask is that my family is originally from Bihar. Historically, most people in my family recognized the Mughal (and the British) as a part of our history. I think part of that is that Mughal culture/cuisine is more apparent than in Gujarat.

That being said the sentiment is changing.

[randomusername]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-12/modi-s-india-prefers-to-ignore-75th-anniversary-of-independence#xj4y7vzkg

The British left behind in 1947 a ruling class that upheld liberal norms and institutions — and, in the Hindu nationalist worldview held by the New India’s foot soldiers, was also effete, deracinated and entirely Anglicized. Being ruled by Western-educated leaders such as Jawaharlal Nehru, independent India’s first prime minister, was no better than being ruled by the British or the Mughals, rendering “independence” meaningless.

Apparently liberals are now pro colonization also lol how they use the terms "old republic" throughout this piece like Modi is the Indian version of Palpatine

I do think BJP does need to think through its views on the identity of India.  They are clearly trying to create an Indo-Aryan Hindu identity as the Indian identity.  What is not clear is do they see this Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a civilizational state or do they see it as a Hindu Rastra.  There are several stands within the BJP that seems to advocate for one or another.  One way to tell is to ask the question "Do you consider the Moghul empire as a part of Indian history"  Those for Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a civilizational state would say "Yes" and those for Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a Hindu Rastra would say "No".  On my few trips to India, I would ask people, especially those that I can tell are pro-BJP this question.   Some of the younger people I asked would get confused about what I would ask this question but some of the older people I asked that have thought about this issue quickly caught on what I was getting at and asking about.

Yah when this topic is brought up with family members, they do not consider the Mughal Empire to be Indian but rather a foreign power occupying India just like the British and many consider the Mughals to be worse than the British Raj as well .


 

Just curious, what part of India is your family from?

Gujarat

Interesting, the reason why I ask is that my family is originally from Bihar. Historically, most people in my family recognized the Mughal (and the British) as a part of our history. I think part of that is that Mughal culture/cuisine is more apparent than in Gujarat.

That being said the sentiment is changing.

Well we consider them part of our history but just as colonizers

Well, I think there's a bit more of a grey area than that. I won't whitewash the negatives of the Mughal empire, but I don't think people should attempt to also whitewash some of the contributions to Indian culture they brought, as well due to political interests. While the Taj Mahal and Red Fort aren't Hindu, they are uniquely Indian. The reason I also brought up cuisine was because its very obvious to see their impact. Imagine an India without Samosas or Gulab Jamun? Again, not native to India, but very uniquely Indian. It seems impossible to no matter how much they may try to remove them from textbooks https://www.firstpost.com/india/mughals-disappearing-from-textbooks-across-the-country-as-history-seems-subject-to-change-3903053.html. Is this not an attempt to go "woke"?