India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec

[xelas81]

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/politics/uttar-pradesh-minister-swami-prasad-maurya-quits-bjp-joins-sp-ahead-of-assembly-elections-7923651.html

"UP minister Swami Prasad Maurya defects to SP ahead of polls"

This is quite significant.  Swami Prasad Maurya as the OBC face for BSP for years.  When he defected from BSP to BJP in 2016 it was symbolic of the realignment of the non-Yadav OBC toward the BJP in 2014-2017.  Now he has shifted to SP shows that SP can be competitive with non-Yadav OBC.  If so that is very bad news for BJP.  BJP's route to victory is to win Upper Caste, non-Jatav Dalits and non-Yadav OBC and even if the Muslim and Yadav vote consolidate around SP the BJP will still win.  Any swing of non-Yadav OBC to SP could be deadly for BJP.

Right after BJP MLA Swami Prasad Maurya quit BJP to join SP this news came out

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/north-and-central/arrest-warrant-issued-against-ex-up-minister-swami-prasad-maurya-1070537.html

"Arrest warrant issued against ex-UP Minister Swami Prasad Maurya"

It is not clear which is the chicken and which is the egg.  It is possible that Swami Prasad Maurya quit BJP to join SP as soon as he realized the courts were going to arrest him for a case from 7 years ago (when he was with BSP) and then quit or it is the other way around.

One thing I know is being arrested will not at all affect his ability to be re-elected on the SP ticket.  If anything it will enhance his chances.

Apparently the crime is for allegedly making objectionable comments against Hindu gods and not usual corruption/vote buying.

[xelas81]

Aren't some groups (eg Sikhs) over represented in the Indian military?
Also decreasing the number of professional troops seems to go against BJP's goal of making India to superpower.

[xelas81]

INC Prez election will be Oct 17 after many delays in hopes that Rahul Gandhi can be talked into running.  It seems Rahul Gandhi has categorically ruled out running so now the election will be Oct 17 and the INC will have its first non-Gandhi Prez since 1998. 

So who is most likely to became next INC president and will they have real influence over the party?